Bobby Grier
NE · Composite skill θ = -0.40 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.22 to +0.42
Evidence: 27 mapped picks across 3 draft classes, 1997–1999 · 100% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.04
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1997–1999NEVP Player Personnel under Carroll
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | #54 | Rod Rutledge | OFF | +0.55 |
| 1999 | #227 | Michael Bishop | OFF | +0.49 |
| 1997 | #89 | Chris Carter | DEF | +0.33 |
| 1997 | #159 | Vernon Crawford | DEF | +0.26 |
| 1998 | #176 | Harold Shaw | OFF | +0.25 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | #241 | Sean Morey | OFF | -2.41 |
| 1998 | #83 | Greg Spires | DEF | -1.79 |
| 1999 | #17 | Damien Woody | OFF | -1.57 |
| 1997 | #125 | Ed Ellis | OFF | -1.09 |
| 1999 | #154 | Derrick Fletcher | OFF | -1.08 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 27 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1998 | #54 | Rod Rutledge | OFF | +0.79 | +0.41 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.55 |
| 1999 | #227 | Michael Bishop | OFF | +0.27 | +0.27 | — | +0.22 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.49 |
| 1997 | #89 | Chris Carter | DEF | +0.38 | +0.01 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.33 |
| 1997 | #159 | Vernon Crawford | DEF | +0.53 | -0.08 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.26 |
| 1998 | #176 | Harold Shaw | OFF | +0.49 | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.25 |
| 1999 | #46 | Kevin Faulk | OFF | +1.40 | -0.64 | — | +0.97 | — | -1.35 | -0.93 | +0.21 |
| 1997 | #59 | Brandon Mitchell | DEF | +0.24 | +0.14 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.09 | -0.04 | +0.17 |
| 1999 | #91 | Tony George | DEF | +0.19 | -0.20 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.04 |
| 1998 | #52 | Tony Simmons | OFF | +0.23 | -0.15 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.02 |
| 1998 | #211 | Jason Andersen | OFF | +0.10 | -0.13 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.02 |
| 1997 | #192 | Tony Gaiter | OFF | -0.28 | +0.04 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.10 |
| 1999 | #180 | Marcus Washington | DEF | -0.34 | +0.00 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 1998 | #81 | Chris Floyd | OFF | +0.36 | -0.14 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 1998 | #115 | Leonta Rheams | DEF | -0.33 | -0.12 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.28 |
| 1997 | #97 | Damon Denson | OFF | -0.20 | -0.27 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 1998 | #145 | Ron Merkerson | DEF | -0.49 | -0.14 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.44 |
| 1997 | #29 | Chris Canty | DEF | -0.05 | -0.34 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.45 |
| 1997 | #61 | Sedrick Shaw | OFF | -0.34 | -0.27 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.55 |
| 1998 | #22 | Tebucky Jones | DEF | +0.26 | -0.24 | — | -0.38 | — | -0.22 | -0.15 | -0.56 |
| 1999 | #28 | Andy Katzenmoyer | DEF | -0.33 | -0.31 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.64 |
| 1998 | #18 | Robert Edwards | OFF | -0.54 | -0.29 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.72 |
| 1997 | #230 | Scott Rehberg | OFF | -0.46 | -0.45 | — | -0.32 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.80 |
| 1999 | #154 | Derrick Fletcher | OFF | -0.75 | -0.53 | — | -0.41 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -1.08 |
| 1997 | #125 | Ed Ellis | OFF | -0.65 | -0.62 | — | -0.43 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.09 |
| 1999 | #17 | Damien Woody | OFF | -0.54 | -0.19 | — | -0.56 | — | -0.29 | -0.99 | -1.57 |
| 1998 | #83 | Greg Spires | DEF | -0.60 | -1.07 | — | -0.84 | — | -0.16 | -0.08 | -1.79 |
| 1999 | #241 | Sean Morey | OFF | -1.44 | -1.02 | — | -1.10 | — | -0.09 | -0.07 | -2.41 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.