Gene Smith
JAX · Composite skill θ = -0.81 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.47 to -0.16
Evidence: 26 mapped picks across 4 draft classes, 2009–2012 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.27
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2009–2012JAX
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | #107 | Mike Thomas | OFF | +1.35 |
| 2009 | #73 | Derek Cox | DEF | +1.15 |
| 2009 | #72 | Terrance Knighton | DEF | +0.76 |
| 2011 | #114 | Cecil Shorts | OFF | +0.57 |
| 2010 | #153 | Austen Lane | DEF | +0.50 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | #10 | Blaine Gabbert | OFF | -5.44 |
| 2010 | #10 | Tyson Alualu | DEF | -4.96 |
| 2012 | #70 | Bryan Anger | ST | -4.21 |
| 2012 | #5 | Justin Blackmon | OFF | -1.57 |
| 2012 | #38 | Andre Branch | DEF | -1.48 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 26 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2009 | #107 | Mike Thomas | OFF | +0.68 | +0.62 | — | +0.72 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +1.35 |
| 2009 | #73 | Derek Cox | DEF | +0.43 | +0.86 | — | +0.53 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.15 |
| 2009 | #72 | Terrance Knighton | DEF | +0.38 | +0.64 | — | +0.31 | — | -0.08 | -0.03 | +0.76 |
| 2011 | #114 | Cecil Shorts | OFF | +0.42 | +0.52 | +1.09 | +0.28 | -0.43 | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.57 |
| 2010 | #153 | Austen Lane | DEF | +0.19 | +0.34 | — | +0.24 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.50 |
| 2012 | #176 | Mike Harris | DEF | +0.26 | +0.08 | +1.11 | +0.16 | -0.45 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.33 |
| 2009 | #253 | Tiquan Underwood | OFF | +0.03 | +0.04 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.08 |
| 2010 | #180 | Deji Karim | OFF | +0.10 | -0.03 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.06 |
| 2009 | #144 | Jarett Dillard | OFF | +0.02 | +0.00 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.06 |
| 2011 | #76 | Will Rackley | OFF | -0.11 | +0.11 | +0.78 | -0.07 | -0.40 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.01 |
| 2012 | #228 | Jeris Pendleton | DEF | -0.28 | -0.03 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.17 |
| 2010 | #143 | Larry Hart | DEF | -0.17 | -0.15 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 2010 | #203 | Scotty McGee | DEF | -0.40 | -0.06 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.23 |
| 2009 | #250 | Rashad Jennings | OFF | -0.01 | -0.21 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.05 | -0.04 | -0.24 |
| 2009 | #39 | Eben Britton | OFF | -0.17 | -0.13 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.10 | -0.06 | -0.39 |
| 2011 | #147 | Rod Issac | DEF | -0.46 | -0.18 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 2011 | #121 | Chris Prosinski | DEF | +0.17 | -0.35 | -0.09 | -0.22 | -1.11 | -0.06 | -0.05 | -0.81 |
| 2009 | #8 | Eugene Monroe | OFF | +0.08 | +0.10 | -0.48 | -0.42 | — | -0.37 | -0.23 | -0.82 |
| 2010 | #74 | D'Anthony Smith | DEF | -0.71 | -0.55 | — | -0.39 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -1.05 |
| 2009 | #180 | Zach Miller | OFF | -0.50 | -0.71 | — | -0.40 | — | -0.10 | -0.06 | -1.09 |
| 2012 | #142 | Brandon Marshall | DEF | -0.92 | -0.63 | — | -0.57 | — | -0.07 | -0.05 | -1.41 |
| 2012 | #38 | Andre Branch | DEF | -0.16 | -0.75 | -0.16 | -0.54 | -1.32 | -0.23 | -0.15 | -1.48 |
| 2012 | #5 | Justin Blackmon | OFF | -0.66 | -0.72 | -0.18 | -0.90 | — | -0.19 | -0.11 | -1.57 |
| 2012 | #70 | Bryan Anger | ST | -1.23 | -1.88 | — | -1.48 | -0.37 | -1.73 | -1.72 | -4.21 |
| 2010 | #10 | Tyson Alualu | DEF | -0.40 | -0.37 | -0.77 | -1.27 | -1.92 | -3.48 | -2.24 | -4.96 |
| 2011 | #10 | Blaine Gabbert | OFF | -1.84 | -1.66 | -1.58 | -2.22 | — | -2.48 | -0.58 | -5.44 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.