Bucko Kilroy
NE · Composite skill θ = +0.22 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.56 to +1.00
Evidence: 25 mapped picks across 3 draft classes, 1980–1982 · 100% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.10
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1980–1982NENamed GM April 1979; served through 1982; then VP
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1982 | #41 | Andre Tippett | DEF | +7.88 |
| 1982 | #112 | Fred Marion | DEF | +3.65 |
| 1981 | #157 | Ron Wooten | OFF | +2.51 |
| 1981 | #19 | Brian Holloway | OFF | +2.28 |
| 1981 | #102 | Don Blackmon | DEF | +2.23 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1980 | #73 | Steve McMichael | DEF | -6.55 |
| 1982 | #1 | Kenneth Sims | DEF | -1.29 |
| 1982 | #27 | Lester Williams | DEF | -0.69 |
| 1980 | #180 | Tom Kearns | OFF | -0.69 |
| 1982 | #85 | George Crump | DEF | -0.66 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 25 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1982 | #41 | Andre Tippett | DEF | +1.17 | +1.83 | — | +2.71 | — | +3.98 | +3.35 | +7.88 |
| 1982 | #112 | Fred Marion | DEF | +1.81 | +1.94 | — | +1.44 | — | +0.84 | -0.17 | +3.65 |
| 1981 | #157 | Ron Wooten | OFF | +1.21 | +1.77 | — | +1.09 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | +2.51 |
| 1981 | #19 | Brian Holloway | OFF | +0.45 | +0.53 | — | +0.54 | — | +2.74 | -0.25 | +2.28 |
| 1981 | #102 | Don Blackmon | DEF | +0.99 | +1.25 | — | +1.18 | — | -0.10 | -0.05 | +2.23 |
| 1981 | #47 | Tony Collins | OFF | +0.52 | +0.86 | — | +0.86 | — | +0.15 | -0.44 | +1.40 |
| 1980 | #45 | Larry McGrew | DEF | +0.68 | +0.90 | — | +0.45 | — | -1.19 | -0.69 | +0.30 |
| 1980 | #14 | Roland James | DEF | +1.11 | +1.26 | — | +0.60 | — | -1.94 | -1.22 | +0.21 |
| 1982 | #56 | Cedric Jones | OFF | +1.27 | -0.16 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.40 | -0.18 | +0.07 |
| 1981 | #185 | Ken Toler | OFF | +0.13 | -0.10 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 1982 | #60 | Clayton Weishuhn | DEF | -0.36 | -0.01 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | -0.19 |
| 1980 | #160 | Preston Brown | OFF | -0.21 | -0.06 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 1982 | #141 | Ricky Smith | DEF | -0.13 | -0.37 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.30 |
| 1982 | #55 | Darryl Haley | OFF | +0.14 | -0.38 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.16 | -0.07 | -0.47 |
| 1982 | #40 | Robert Weathers | OFF | +0.14 | -0.39 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.09 | -0.04 | -0.47 |
| 1981 | #130 | Steve Clark | DEF | -0.43 | -0.21 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 1980 | #124 | Doug McDougald | DEF | -0.44 | -0.25 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.51 |
| 1982 | #168 | Jeff Roberts | DEF | -0.59 | -0.21 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.62 |
| 1982 | #111 | Brian Ingram | DEF | +0.03 | -0.52 | — | -0.35 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.64 |
| 1980 | #25 | Vagas Ferguson | OFF | -0.31 | -0.17 | — | -0.31 | — | -0.14 | -0.06 | -0.65 |
| 1982 | #85 | George Crump | DEF | -0.49 | -0.34 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.66 |
| 1980 | #180 | Tom Kearns | OFF | -0.53 | -0.33 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.69 |
| 1982 | #27 | Lester Williams | DEF | -0.20 | -0.54 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.11 | -0.04 | -0.69 |
| 1982 | #1 | Kenneth Sims | DEF | +0.12 | -0.08 | — | -0.71 | — | -0.76 | -0.43 | -1.29 |
| 1980 | #73 | Steve McMichael | DEF | -2.89 | -2.41 | — | -2.62 | — | -1.73 | -0.84 | -6.55 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.