Jim Murray
PHI · Composite skill θ = -0.05 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.84 to +0.74
Evidence: 33 mapped picks across 5 draft classes, 1980–1984 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.36
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1980–1984PHIVP/GM under Dick Vermeil HC era; pre-Gamble
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1982 | #20 | Mike Quick | OFF | +5.83 |
| 1983 | #35 | Wes Hopkins | DEF | +3.43 |
| 1980 | #23 | Roynell Young | DEF | +2.46 |
| 1982 | #105 | Anthony Griggs | DEF | +0.74 |
| 1984 | #88 | Evan Cooper | DEF | +0.11 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1984 | #4 | Kenny Jackson | OFF | -1.62 |
| 1983 | #8 | Michael Haddix | OFF | -1.60 |
| 1984 | #60 | Rusty Russell | OFF | -1.23 |
| 1983 | #62 | Glen Young | OFF | -1.19 |
| 1982 | #190 | Harvey Armstrong | DEF | -1.17 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 33 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1982 | #20 | Mike Quick | OFF | +0.60 | +0.93 | — | +0.73 | — | +4.70 | +3.95 | +5.83 |
| 1983 | #35 | Wes Hopkins | DEF | +1.13 | +1.69 | — | +1.16 | — | +0.16 | +1.56 | +3.43 |
| 1980 | #23 | Roynell Young | DEF | +0.96 | +1.45 | — | +1.27 | — | +0.38 | -0.40 | +2.46 |
| 1982 | #105 | Anthony Griggs | DEF | +0.24 | +0.61 | — | +0.38 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | +0.74 |
| 1984 | #88 | Evan Cooper | DEF | +0.58 | -0.11 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.11 |
| 1981 | #27 | Leonard Mitchell | DEF | +0.48 | +0.09 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.20 | -0.07 | +0.01 |
| 1981 | #174 | Alan Duncan | ST | -0.52 | +0.19 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.00 |
| 1983 | #120 | Byron Darby | DEF | +0.42 | -0.34 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.14 |
| 1983 | #89 | Michael Williams | OFF | +0.05 | +0.01 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.14 |
| 1982 | #78 | Vyto Kab | OFF | -0.02 | -0.05 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | -0.20 |
| 1984 | #172 | Joe Hayes | OFF | -0.19 | -0.03 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 1982 | #132 | Dennis DeVaughn | DEF | -0.27 | -0.21 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 1983 | #174 | Anthony Edgar | OFF | -0.49 | -0.04 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.41 |
| 1980 | #188 | Terrell Ward | DEF | -0.51 | -0.14 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 1982 | #159 | Curt Grieve | OFF | -0.51 | -0.14 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 1983 | #147 | Victor Oatis | OFF | -0.52 | -0.15 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 1983 | #46 | Jody Schulz | DEF | +0.13 | -0.47 | — | -0.32 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.53 |
| 1984 | #116 | Andre Hardy | OFF | -0.46 | -0.16 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.55 |
| 1980 | #53 | Perry Harrington | OFF | -0.08 | -0.28 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.15 | -0.06 | -0.58 |
| 1981 | #192 | Doak Field | DEF | -0.56 | -0.18 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.58 |
| 1983 | #182 | Jon Schultheis | OFF | -0.47 | -0.28 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.58 |
| 1981 | #110 | Calvin Murray | OFF | -0.49 | -0.23 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.63 |
| 1980 | #135 | Nate Rivers | OFF | -0.64 | -0.18 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.68 |
| 1984 | #145 | Scott Raridon | OFF | -0.53 | -0.33 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.68 |
| 1980 | #161 | Greg Murtha | OFF | -0.57 | -0.37 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.77 |
| 1982 | #47 | Lawrence Sampleton | OFF | -0.34 | -0.73 | — | -0.46 | — | -0.11 | -0.04 | -1.06 |
| 1981 | #55 | Dean Miraldi | OFF | -0.53 | -0.45 | — | -0.52 | — | -0.17 | -0.08 | -1.13 |
| 1981 | #82 | Greg LaFleur | OFF | -0.99 | -0.61 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | -1.15 |
| 1982 | #190 | Harvey Armstrong | DEF | -0.30 | -0.80 | — | -0.57 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | -1.17 |
| 1983 | #62 | Glen Young | OFF | -0.58 | -0.61 | — | -0.53 | — | -0.08 | -0.03 | -1.19 |
| 1984 | #60 | Rusty Russell | OFF | -0.76 | -0.63 | — | -0.50 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.23 |
| 1983 | #8 | Michael Haddix | OFF | +0.39 | -0.49 | — | -0.93 | — | -0.82 | -0.42 | -1.60 |
| 1984 | #4 | Kenny Jackson | OFF | +0.51 | -0.28 | — | -1.18 | — | -0.71 | -0.40 | -1.62 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.