George Paton
DEN · Composite skill θ = +0.40 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.43 to +2.23
Evidence: 38 mapped picks across 5 draft classes, 2021–2025 · 40% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.57
- maturity discount
- -0.59
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2021–2025DEN
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | #9 | Patrick Surtain II | DEF | +7.06 |
| 2021 | #98 | Quinn Meinerz | OFF | +4.87 |
| 2022 | #64 | Nik Bonitto | DEF | +3.34 |
| 2021 | #239 | Jonathon Cooper | DEF | +3.16 |
| 2023 | #63 | Marvin Mims | OFF | +1.67 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | #164 | Jamar Johnson | DEF | -1.14 |
| 2021 | #219 | Seth Williams | OFF | -0.93 |
| 2021 | #237 | Kary Vincent Jr. | DEF | -0.86 |
| 2025 | #20 | Jahdae Barron | DEF | -0.85 |
| 2021 | #253 | Marquiss Spencer | DEF | -0.81 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 38 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2021 | #9 | Patrick Surtain II | DEF | +0.59 | +0.88 | +1.16 | +1.18 | +3.11 | +4.01 | +4.08 | +7.06 |
| 2021 | #98 | Quinn Meinerz | OFF | +1.01 | +1.30 | +1.10 | +1.06 | +1.14 | +1.00 | +4.25 | +4.87 |
| 2022 | #64 | Nik Bonitto | DEF | +0.61 | +0.38 | -0.04 | +0.90 | +3.09 | +2.09 | -0.05 | +3.34 |
| 2021 | #239 | Jonathon Cooper | DEF | +1.37 | +1.58 | +1.84 | +1.35 | +1.80 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +3.16 |
| 2023 | #63 | Marvin Mims | OFF | +0.46 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.24 | +0.73 | +2.13 | -0.02 | +1.67 |
| 2025 | #216 | Jeremy Crawshaw | ST | +0.35 | +0.56 | — | +0.60 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.06 |
| 2024 | #12 | Bo Nix | OFF | +0.28 | +0.30 | +0.55 | +0.43 | +0.34 | -0.06 | -0.01 | +0.73 |
| 2023 | #83 | Riley Moss | DEF | +0.45 | +0.54 | +0.59 | +0.29 | +0.06 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.68 |
| 2024 | #102 | Troy Franklin | OFF | +0.38 | +0.25 | +0.28 | +0.21 | +0.52 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.65 |
| 2024 | #235 | Devaughn Vele | OFF | +0.17 | +0.35 | +0.71 | +0.25 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.65 |
| 2022 | #115 | Damarri Mathis | DEF | +0.53 | +0.32 | +0.36 | +0.20 | +0.27 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.61 |
| 2023 | #257 | Alex Forsyth | OFF | +0.55 | +0.03 | +0.17 | +0.09 | +0.66 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.61 |
| 2025 | #241 | Caleb Lohner | OFF | -0.06 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.38 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.51 |
| 2021 | #105 | Baron Browning | DEF | +0.08 | +0.19 | -0.31 | +0.19 | +0.96 | -0.09 | -0.05 | +0.49 |
| 2022 | #171 | Luke Wattenberg | OFF | +0.66 | +0.41 | +0.29 | +0.24 | -0.28 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.41 |
| 2022 | #232 | Faion Hicks | DEF | -0.22 | +0.04 | +0.62 | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.21 |
| 2025 | #60 | RJ Harvey | OFF | -0.05 | +0.07 | -0.05 | +0.02 | +0.25 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.11 |
| 2024 | #147 | Audric Estime | OFF | -0.02 | +0.09 | +0.04 | +0.04 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.07 |
| 2022 | #162 | Montrell Washington | OFF | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.38 | -0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.03 |
| 2024 | #256 | Nick Gargiulo | OFF | -0.13 | -0.01 | +0.24 | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| 2025 | #74 | Pat Bryant | OFF | -0.01 | +0.09 | +0.02 | -0.03 | -0.08 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| 2024 | #145 | Kris Abrams-Draine | DEF | +0.21 | +0.07 | +0.04 | +0.10 | -0.43 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| 2025 | #134 | Quandarrius Robinson | DEF | -0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.07 |
| 2025 | #101 | Sai'vion Jones | DEF | -0.22 | +0.01 | -0.17 | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.10 |
| 2021 | #35 | Javonte Williams | OFF | +0.13 | -0.02 | -0.08 | +0.11 | -0.09 | -0.30 | -0.13 | -0.20 |
| 2023 | #183 | JL Skinner | DEF | +0.41 | -0.06 | -0.21 | +0.07 | -0.69 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 2022 | #80 | Greg Dulcich | OFF | -0.46 | -0.23 | -0.95 | -0.05 | +0.54 | -0.08 | -0.03 | -0.35 |
| 2022 | #206 | Matt Henningsen | DEF | +0.34 | -0.13 | -0.19 | -0.01 | -0.71 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.36 |
| 2022 | #152 | Delarrin Turner-Yell | DEF | +0.15 | -0.20 | -0.44 | -0.08 | -0.55 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.51 |
| 2022 | #116 | Eyioma Uwazurike | DEF | +0.03 | -0.29 | -0.25 | -0.11 | -0.57 | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.54 |
| 2024 | #76 | Jonah Elliss | DEF | +0.22 | -0.20 | +0.23 | -0.04 | -1.31 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.60 |
| 2023 | #67 | Drew Sanders | DEF | -0.09 | -0.20 | -0.34 | -0.22 | -0.55 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.62 |
| 2021 | #152 | Caden Sterns | DEF | -0.25 | -0.25 | -1.19 | -0.16 | -0.01 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.69 |
| 2021 | #253 | Marquiss Spencer | DEF | -0.54 | -0.21 | -1.12 | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.81 |
| 2025 | #20 | Jahdae Barron | DEF | -0.26 | -0.42 | -0.54 | -0.42 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.85 |
| 2021 | #237 | Kary Vincent Jr. | DEF | -0.61 | -0.25 | -1.12 | -0.18 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.86 |
| 2021 | #219 | Seth Williams | OFF | -0.57 | -0.23 | -1.14 | -0.25 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.93 |
| 2021 | #164 | Jamar Johnson | DEF | -0.66 | -0.37 | -1.47 | -0.27 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.14 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.