Mike Tice / Brzezinski
MIN · Composite skill θ = +0.24 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.39 to +0.87
Evidence: 29 mapped picks across 4 draft classes, 2002–2005 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.27
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2002–2005MINHC era; no formal GM; Brzezinski cap + Studwell scouting
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | #9 | Kevin Williams | DEF | +8.27 |
| 2003 | #40 | E.J. Henderson | DEF | +2.30 |
| 2004 | #220 | Jeff Dugan | OFF | +0.70 |
| 2004 | #20 | Kenechi Udeze | DEF | +0.68 |
| 2003 | #105 | Onterrio Smith | OFF | +0.53 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | #191 | C.J. Mosley | DEF | -2.33 |
| 2003 | #71 | Nate Burleson | OFF | -1.66 |
| 2005 | #7 | Troy Williamson | OFF | -1.08 |
| 2002 | #38 | Raonall Smith | DEF | -0.98 |
| 2005 | #18 | Erasmus James | DEF | -0.89 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 29 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2003 | #9 | Kevin Williams | DEF | +1.40 | +2.23 | -1.42 | +2.63 | -1.83 | +4.71 | +9.56 | +8.27 |
| 2003 | #40 | E.J. Henderson | DEF | +1.34 | +1.58 | — | +1.11 | — | -0.31 | -0.22 | +2.30 |
| 2004 | #220 | Jeff Dugan | OFF | +1.17 | +0.25 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.70 |
| 2004 | #20 | Kenechi Udeze | DEF | +0.33 | +0.56 | — | +0.27 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.68 |
| 2003 | #105 | Onterrio Smith | OFF | +0.08 | +0.12 | — | +0.45 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.53 |
| 2002 | #177 | Nick Rogers | DEF | +0.34 | +0.35 | — | +0.19 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.52 |
| 2003 | #180 | Eddie Johnson | ST | -0.03 | +0.31 | — | +0.37 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.50 |
| 2003 | #221 | Keenan Howry | OFF | +0.29 | +0.09 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.22 |
| 2003 | #190 | Mike Nattiel | DEF | +0.35 | -0.08 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.20 |
| 2002 | #70 | Willie Offord | DEF | +0.50 | -0.14 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.17 |
| 2004 | #155 | Rod Davis | DEF | +0.45 | -0.12 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.16 |
| 2004 | #48 | Dontarrious Thomas | DEF | +0.69 | -0.27 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.10 |
| 2002 | #7 | Bryant McKinnie | OFF | +0.67 | +1.07 | — | +0.34 | — | -0.92 | -1.61 | -0.06 |
| 2005 | #49 | Marcus Johnson | OFF | +0.37 | -0.16 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.07 |
| 2005 | #219 | Adrian Ward | DEF | -0.31 | +0.02 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| 2004 | #88 | Darrion Scott | DEF | -0.03 | +0.00 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.10 |
| 2004 | #184 | Deandre Eiland | DEF | -0.36 | -0.02 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.15 |
| 2004 | #115 | Nat Dorsey | OFF | -0.21 | -0.16 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| 2005 | #112 | Ciatrick Fason | OFF | -0.11 | -0.13 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 2002 | #218 | Chad Beasley | OFF | -0.29 | -0.13 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.27 |
| 2002 | #105 | Brian Williams | DEF | -0.07 | +0.22 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.16 | -0.14 | -0.33 |
| 2004 | #119 | Mewelde Moore | OFF | -0.04 | -0.52 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.16 | -0.10 | -0.44 |
| 2002 | #132 | Edward Ta'amu | OFF | -0.46 | -0.30 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.56 |
| 2005 | #80 | Dustin Fox | DEF | -0.63 | -0.31 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.68 |
| 2005 | #18 | Erasmus James | DEF | -0.38 | -0.45 | — | -0.44 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.89 |
| 2002 | #38 | Raonall Smith | DEF | -0.34 | -0.54 | — | -0.48 | — | -0.07 | -0.05 | -0.98 |
| 2005 | #7 | Troy Williamson | OFF | -0.08 | -0.44 | — | -0.74 | — | -0.11 | -0.06 | -1.08 |
| 2003 | #71 | Nate Burleson | OFF | -0.84 | -0.52 | — | -0.62 | — | -0.44 | -0.27 | -1.66 |
| 2005 | #191 | C.J. Mosley | DEF | -1.33 | -1.06 | — | -1.05 | — | -0.11 | -0.07 | -2.33 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.