Jim Schaaf
KC · Composite skill θ = -0.05 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.75 to +0.66
Evidence: 63 mapped picks across 9 draft classes, 1980–1988 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.04
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1980–1988KCGM through 1988; pre-Peterson era
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1987 | #35 | Christian Okoye | OFF | +3.95 |
| 1983 | #61 | Albert Lewis | DEF | +3.69 |
| 1984 | #173 | Kevin Ross | DEF | +3.49 |
| 1980 | #114 | Carlos Carson | OFF | +2.89 |
| 1988 | #2 | Neil Smith | DEF | +2.51 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1985 | #15 | Ethan Horton | OFF | -4.03 |
| 1984 | #34 | Scott Radecic | DEF | -3.86 |
| 1983 | #119 | Jim Arnold | ST | -2.50 |
| 1986 | #7 | Brian Jozwiak | OFF | -1.98 |
| 1981 | #14 | Willie Scott | OFF | -1.63 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 63 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1987 | #35 | Christian Okoye | OFF | +0.85 | +1.09 | — | +0.90 | — | +2.07 | +2.09 | +3.95 |
| 1983 | #61 | Albert Lewis | DEF | +0.33 | +0.87 | — | +0.80 | — | +2.14 | +2.45 | +3.69 |
| 1984 | #173 | Kevin Ross | DEF | +1.32 | +2.13 | — | +1.09 | — | +1.74 | -0.40 | +3.49 |
| 1980 | #114 | Carlos Carson | OFF | +1.20 | +1.32 | — | +1.35 | — | +0.73 | -0.17 | +2.89 |
| 1988 | #2 | Neil Smith | DEF | +0.56 | +0.74 | — | +1.01 | — | +1.55 | +0.15 | +2.51 |
| 1981 | #78 | Lloyd Burruss | DEF | +1.48 | +1.32 | — | +0.86 | — | +0.51 | -0.37 | +2.33 |
| 1984 | #21 | John Alt | OFF | +1.59 | +1.60 | — | +1.17 | — | -0.37 | -1.55 | +1.80 |
| 1988 | #59 | Kevin Porter | DEF | +1.12 | +1.03 | — | +0.66 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.71 |
| 1986 | #35 | Dino Hackett | DEF | +0.50 | +1.05 | — | +0.55 | — | +0.83 | -0.16 | +1.67 |
| 1984 | #5 | Bill Maas | DEF | +0.66 | +0.99 | — | +0.45 | — | +1.08 | -0.55 | +1.54 |
| 1984 | #61 | Herman Heard | OFF | +1.12 | +0.80 | — | +0.61 | — | -0.10 | -0.04 | +1.50 |
| 1981 | #180 | Billy Jackson | OFF | +0.86 | +0.79 | — | +0.46 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.27 |
| 1986 | #63 | Leonard Griffin | DEF | +1.17 | +0.10 | — | +0.17 | — | -0.12 | -0.05 | +0.72 |
| 1980 | #11 | Brad Budde | OFF | +0.67 | +0.59 | — | +0.29 | — | -0.46 | -0.21 | +0.59 |
| 1984 | #117 | Eric Holle | DEF | +0.78 | -0.01 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.53 |
| 1982 | #46 | Calvin Daniels | DEF | +0.42 | +0.27 | — | +0.23 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.53 |
| 1981 | #41 | Joe Delaney | OFF | -0.38 | -0.10 | — | +0.15 | — | +1.00 | -0.04 | +0.39 |
| 1980 | #66 | James Hadnot | OFF | +0.20 | +0.19 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | +0.25 |
| 1987 | #186 | Doug Hudson | OFF | -0.04 | +0.19 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 |
| 1986 | #87 | Tom Baugh | OFF | +0.05 | -0.04 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.06 |
| 1984 | #134 | Jeff Paine | DEF | +0.00 | -0.06 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 1983 | #173 | Ken Thomas | OFF | -0.15 | -0.05 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.15 |
| 1985 | #126 | Bruce King | OFF | -0.08 | +0.04 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| 1985 | #99 | Bob Olderman | OFF | -0.24 | -0.06 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 1985 | #180 | Vince Thompson | DEF | -0.42 | -0.05 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.26 |
| 1982 | #157 | Durwood Roquemore | DEF | -0.14 | -0.25 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.31 |
| 1982 | #184 | Greg Smith | DEF | -0.46 | -0.08 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.35 |
| 1988 | #170 | Troy Stedman | DEF | -0.37 | -0.13 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 1983 | #179 | Daryl Posey | OFF | -0.48 | -0.04 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 1985 | #149 | John Bostic | DEF | -0.49 | -0.13 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 1983 | #92 | Ron Wetzel | OFF | -0.34 | -0.36 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.44 |
| 1986 | #141 | Kent Hagood | OFF | -0.51 | -0.07 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 1984 | #146 | Rufus Stevens | OFF | -0.50 | -0.13 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 1981 | #153 | Dock Luckie | DEF | -0.54 | -0.16 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 1983 | #34 | Dave Lutz | OFF | +0.69 | +1.02 | — | +0.32 | — | -2.10 | -1.22 | -0.49 |
| 1985 | #183 | Dave Heffernan | OFF | -0.43 | -0.25 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.51 |
| 1984 | #90 | Mark Robinson | DEF | +0.10 | -0.44 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.53 |
| 1980 | #147 | Bubba Garcia | OFF | -0.43 | -0.20 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.54 |
| 1982 | #130 | Del Thompson | OFF | -0.46 | -0.16 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.55 |
| 1980 | #164 | Larry Heater | OFF | -0.57 | -0.11 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.56 |
| 1988 | #139 | James Saxon | OFF | +0.21 | -0.43 | — | -0.38 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | -0.56 |
| 1983 | #146 | Ellis Gardner | OFF | -0.35 | -0.35 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.57 |
| 1980 | #94 | Dave Klug | DEF | -0.18 | -0.38 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.59 |
| 1988 | #96 | J.R. Ambrose | OFF | -0.58 | -0.23 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.63 |
| 1981 | #124 | Todd Thomas | OFF | -0.27 | -0.43 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.66 |
| 1982 | #100 | Louis Haynes | DEF | -0.49 | -0.38 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.71 |
| 1987 | #73 | Todd Howard | DEF | -0.30 | -0.42 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.71 |
| 1980 | #115 | Dan Pensick | DEF | -0.66 | -0.27 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.71 |
| 1986 | #90 | Chas Fox | OFF | -0.62 | -0.27 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.72 |
| 1987 | #19 | Paul Palmer | OFF | -0.33 | -0.40 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.10 | -0.04 | -0.73 |
| 1981 | #70 | Marvin Harvey | OFF | -0.67 | -0.49 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.80 |
| 1981 | #97 | Ron Washington | OFF | -0.69 | -0.32 | — | -0.31 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.83 |
| 1982 | #11 | Anthony Hancock | OFF | +0.33 | -0.79 | — | -0.51 | — | -0.13 | -0.06 | -0.84 |
| 1982 | #104 | Stuart Anderson | DEF | -0.74 | -0.37 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.91 |
| 1987 | #128 | Kitrick Taylor | OFF | -0.51 | -0.49 | — | -0.43 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.97 |
| 1981 | #75 | Roger Taylor | OFF | -0.47 | -0.60 | — | -0.44 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.01 |
| 1985 | #41 | Jonathan Hayes | OFF | +0.89 | +0.69 | — | -1.03 | — | -1.22 | -0.58 | -1.14 |
| 1983 | #7 | Todd Blackledge | OFF | -0.23 | -0.62 | — | -0.92 | — | -0.25 | -0.04 | -1.48 |
| 1981 | #14 | Willie Scott | OFF | -0.01 | -0.45 | — | -0.96 | — | -0.63 | -0.25 | -1.63 |
| 1986 | #7 | Brian Jozwiak | OFF | -0.41 | -1.19 | — | -1.09 | — | -0.11 | -0.06 | -1.98 |
| 1983 | #119 | Jim Arnold | ST | -0.95 | -1.24 | — | -0.96 | — | -0.49 | -0.40 | -2.50 |
| 1984 | #34 | Scott Radecic | DEF | -1.33 | -1.19 | — | -1.40 | — | -1.45 | -0.96 | -3.86 |
| 1985 | #15 | Ethan Horton | OFF | -1.73 | -1.86 | — | -1.47 | — | -1.05 | -0.48 | -4.03 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.