Ernie Accorsi
IND · CLE · NYG · Composite skill θ = -0.05 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.58 to +0.48
Composite θ
-0.05
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-0.58–+0.48
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
43%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Average
directional only
Evidence: 111 mapped picks across 17 draft classes, 1982–2006 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.06
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1982–1983INDDirector Football Ops then GM; resigned before move to Indianapolis
- 1985–1990CLEPre-Belichick CLE era; Director of Football Operations / GM
- 1998–2006NYG
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1988 | #50 | Michael Dean Perry | DEF | +7.26 |
| 2004 | #34 | Chris Snee | OFF | +5.57 |
| 2003 | #56 | Osi Umenyiora | DEF | +3.76 |
| 2005 | #74 | Justin Tuck | DEF | +3.66 |
| 2002 | #14 | Jeremy Shockey | OFF | +3.04 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1987 | #82 | Jeff Jaeger | ST | -4.08 |
| 1989 | #13 | Eric Metcalf | OFF | -3.66 |
| 1982 | #2 | Johnie Cooks | DEF | -3.32 |
| 1983 | #161 | Grant Feasel | OFF | -2.46 |
| 1982 | #34 | Rohn Stark | ST | -2.30 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 111 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1988 | #50 | Michael Dean Perry | DEF | +0.84 | +1.13 | — | +2.15 | — | +4.07 | +4.16 | +7.26 |
| 2004 | #34 | Chris Snee | OFF | +1.54 | +2.21 | -0.98 | +2.38 | — | +2.74 | +1.80 | +5.57 |
| 2003 | #56 | Osi Umenyiora | DEF | +0.92 | +0.75 | — | +1.17 | — | +1.66 | +1.86 | +3.76 |
| 2005 | #74 | Justin Tuck | DEF | +1.16 | +1.06 | -0.32 | +1.53 | +0.69 | +1.87 | +1.98 | +3.66 |
| 2002 | #14 | Jeremy Shockey | OFF | -0.03 | +0.45 | — | +0.20 | — | +3.56 | +1.70 | +3.04 |
| 2003 | #160 | David Diehl | OFF | +2.29 | +3.07 | -0.19 | +2.37 | -0.89 | -0.18 | -0.14 | +2.30 |
| 1985 | #175 | Reggie Langhorne | OFF | +1.22 | +1.46 | — | +0.54 | — | -0.10 | -0.05 | +1.81 |
| 1983 | #1 | John Elway | OFF | -3.24 | -3.35 | — | +4.86 | — | +2.56 | -2.32 | +1.68 |
| 1999 | #19 | Luke Petitgout | OFF | +1.01 | +1.28 | — | +0.66 | — | -0.43 | -0.27 | +1.45 |
| 1988 | #188 | Thane Gash | DEF | +0.79 | +0.86 | — | +0.55 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.37 |
| 2000 | #105 | Brandon Short | DEF | +0.65 | +0.84 | — | +0.55 | — | -0.05 | -0.04 | +1.25 |
| 2005 | #110 | Brandon Jacobs | OFF | +1.21 | +0.50 | -0.33 | +0.90 | — | -0.18 | -0.11 | +1.21 |
| 2005 | #43 | Corey Webster | DEF | +1.32 | +1.33 | -0.84 | +0.58 | — | -0.27 | -0.20 | +0.94 |
| 2003 | #211 | David Tyree | OFF | +1.08 | -0.17 | — | -0.09 | — | +1.07 | -0.02 | +0.90 |
| 2004 | #136 | Gibril Wilson | DEF | +0.19 | +0.76 | — | +0.45 | — | -0.06 | -0.05 | +0.87 |
| 2003 | #249 | Wayne Lucier | OFF | +0.41 | +0.45 | — | +0.37 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.79 |
| 2006 | #124 | Barry Cofield | DEF | +0.44 | +1.10 | -0.51 | +0.46 | — | -0.14 | -0.08 | +0.69 |
| 1988 | #77 | Van Waiters | DEF | +0.82 | +0.16 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.65 |
| 2006 | #32 | Mathias Kiwanuka | DEF | +1.24 | +0.94 | -0.04 | +0.65 | -0.62 | -0.30 | -0.14 | +0.50 |
| 1999 | #225 | Ryan Hale | DEF | +0.36 | +0.09 | — | +0.20 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.43 |
| 1987 | #80 | Tim Manoa | OFF | +0.39 | +0.27 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.36 |
| 2002 | #152 | Nick Greisen | DEF | +0.42 | +0.06 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.03 | -0.03 | +0.33 |
| 2006 | #96 | Gerris Wilkinson | DEF | +0.73 | -0.14 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.32 |
| 1999 | #189 | Lyle West | DEF | +0.21 | +0.04 | — | +0.16 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.28 |
| 1987 | #32 | Gregg Rakoczy | OFF | +0.38 | +0.23 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.10 | -0.05 | +0.28 |
| 1987 | #165 | Stephen Braggs | DEF | +0.77 | -0.07 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.27 |
| 2003 | #199 | Willie Ponder | OFF | +0.32 | +0.03 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.27 |
| 2001 | #160 | John Markham | ST | -0.40 | +0.28 | — | +0.31 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.24 |
| 2002 | #226 | Daryl Jones | OFF | +0.06 | +0.24 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.24 |
| 2001 | #125 | Jesse Palmer | OFF | +0.06 | +0.15 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 |
| 2002 | #188 | Wesly Mallard | DEF | +0.41 | -0.07 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.19 |
| 1982 | #57 | Jim Burroughs | DEF | -0.10 | +0.22 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.15 |
| 1998 | #24 | Shaun Williams | DEF | +0.54 | +0.26 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.32 | -0.24 | +0.14 |
| 1982 | #28 | Leo Wisniewski | DEF | -0.09 | +0.25 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.06 | -0.02 | +0.14 |
| 1999 | #205 | Andre Weathers | DEF | -0.05 | +0.04 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.13 |
| 1986 | #174 | Mike Norseth | OFF | -0.10 | +0.13 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.10 |
| 1988 | #103 | Anthony Blaylock | DEF | +0.42 | -0.14 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.09 |
| 2000 | #217 | Jeremiah Parker | DEF | -0.17 | +0.08 | — | +0.11 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| 2004 | #253 | Isaac Hilton | DEF | -0.23 | +0.10 | — | +0.12 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| 1982 | #169 | Fletcher Jenkins | DEF | -0.27 | +0.14 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| 2002 | #245 | Quincy Monk | DEF | -0.01 | +0.01 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.04 |
| 2000 | #73 | Ron Dixon | OFF | +0.29 | -0.20 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.04 |
| 2004 | #97 | Reggie Torbor | DEF | +0.46 | -0.16 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | +0.04 |
| 1983 | #169 | Alvin Moore | OFF | +0.18 | +0.00 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.03 |
| 2003 | #240 | Charles Drake | DEF | -0.26 | +0.07 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| 1998 | #177 | Todd Pollack | OFF | -0.39 | -0.04 | — | +0.23 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 2004 | #168 | Jamaar Taylor | OFF | -0.06 | -0.03 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.04 |
| 2006 | #232 | Gerrick McPhearson | DEF | -0.30 | +0.03 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 1982 | #140 | Pat Beach | OFF | +1.01 | +1.12 | — | -0.78 | — | -0.48 | -0.24 | -0.08 |
| 1999 | #231 | O.J. Childress | DEF | -0.23 | +0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.12 |
| 1990 | #45 | Leroy Hoard | OFF | +0.35 | +0.15 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.56 | -0.31 | -0.13 |
| 1999 | #112 | Sean Bennett | OFF | -0.12 | -0.04 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| 2001 | #162 | Jonathan Carter | OFF | -0.30 | -0.02 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 1989 | #107 | Andrew Stewart | DEF | -0.15 | -0.17 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| 1989 | #116 | Vernon Joines | OFF | -0.02 | -0.15 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| 1999 | #149 | Mike Rosenthal | OFF | -0.05 | -0.08 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.05 | -0.04 | -0.20 |
| 2001 | #114 | Cedric Scott | DEF | -0.27 | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.23 |
| 1989 | #114 | Kyle Kramer | DEF | -0.19 | -0.18 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 1989 | #160 | Gary Wilkerson | DEF | -0.42 | -0.07 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 1998 | #213 | Ben Fricke | OFF | -0.28 | -0.13 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.26 |
| 1990 | #129 | Rob Burnett | DEF | -0.21 | +0.30 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.40 | -0.24 | -0.29 |
| 1989 | #187 | Mike Graybill | OFF | -0.23 | -0.20 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 1998 | #147 | Toby Myles | OFF | -0.22 | -0.24 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 2004 | #203 | Drew Strojny | OFF | -0.33 | -0.17 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 2003 | #123 | Roderick Babers | DEF | -0.49 | -0.14 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 1990 | #101 | Harlon Barnett | DEF | -0.03 | -0.28 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.44 |
| 1990 | #157 | Randy Hilliard | DEF | +0.14 | -0.26 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.07 | -0.06 | -0.46 |
| 1985 | #147 | Mark Krerowicz | OFF | -0.43 | -0.23 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 2006 | #44 | Sinorice Moss | OFF | +0.12 | -0.45 | — | -0.27 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.48 |
| 1986 | #127 | Nick Miller | DEF | -0.39 | -0.22 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 2001 | #230 | Ross Kolodziej | DEF | -0.40 | -0.23 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.51 |
| 1982 | #113 | Terry Crouch | OFF | -0.42 | -0.28 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.53 |
| 1983 | #113 | Sid Abramowitz | OFF | -0.21 | -0.32 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.53 |
| 1986 | #167 | Jim Meyer | OFF | -0.45 | -0.26 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.54 |
| 1983 | #85 | Phil Smith | OFF | -0.27 | -0.33 | — | -0.27 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.59 |
| 1990 | #178 | Scott Galbraith | OFF | -0.13 | -0.35 | — | -0.36 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.66 |
| 2004 | #4 | Philip Rivers | OFF | -4.92 | -4.69 | — | +3.83 | — | +3.24 | -2.63 | -0.67 |
| 1998 | #70 | Brian Alford | OFF | -0.52 | -0.30 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.68 |
| 2003 | #207 | Frank Walker | DEF | -0.14 | -0.45 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.69 |
| 1999 | #49 | Joe Montgomery | OFF | -0.49 | -0.24 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.70 |
| 2002 | #78 | Jeff Hatch | OFF | -0.52 | -0.36 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.70 |
| 2000 | #42 | Cornelius Griffin | DEF | -0.34 | -0.15 | — | -0.27 | — | -0.30 | -0.15 | -0.73 |
| 2005 | #186 | Eric Moore | DEF | -0.56 | -0.35 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.73 |
| 2003 | #25 | William Joseph | DEF | +0.07 | -0.54 | — | -0.42 | — | -0.12 | -0.05 | -0.75 |
| 2001 | #78 | Will Peterson | DEF | -0.42 | -0.13 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.22 | -0.17 | -0.80 |
| 1983 | #57 | George Achica | DEF | -0.70 | -0.46 | — | -0.39 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.99 |
| 1986 | #43 | Webster Slaughter | OFF | -0.52 | +0.26 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.40 | -0.85 | -1.00 |
| 2002 | #46 | Tim Carter | OFF | -0.06 | -0.69 | — | -0.49 | — | -0.18 | -0.10 | -1.00 |
| 2006 | #158 | Charlie Peprah | DEF | -0.83 | -0.44 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.03 | -0.03 | -1.01 |
| 2006 | #129 | Guy Whimper | DEF | -0.37 | -0.67 | — | -0.46 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -1.02 |
| 1983 | #29 | Vernon Maxwell | DEF | -0.66 | -0.28 | — | -0.46 | — | -0.23 | -0.12 | -1.10 |
| 2000 | #177 | Dhani Jones | DEF | -0.56 | -0.37 | — | -0.50 | — | -0.14 | -0.13 | -1.11 |
| 1982 | #84 | Mike Pagel | OFF | -0.66 | -0.20 | — | -0.39 | — | -0.50 | -0.09 | -1.11 |
| 1999 | #79 | Dan Campbell | OFF | -0.23 | -0.30 | — | -0.81 | — | -0.25 | -0.13 | -1.27 |
| 1988 | #21 | Clifford Charlton | DEF | -0.26 | -0.81 | — | -0.70 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -1.28 |
| 1989 | #31 | Lawyer Tillman | OFF | -0.46 | -0.68 | — | -0.60 | — | -0.16 | -0.07 | -1.28 |
| 1985 | #35 | Greg Allen | OFF | -0.73 | -0.56 | — | -0.59 | — | -0.08 | -0.03 | -1.30 |
| 1990 | #73 | Anthony Pleasant | DEF | -0.35 | -0.09 | — | -0.57 | — | -0.72 | -0.40 | -1.35 |
| 2001 | #22 | Will Allen | DEF | -0.41 | +0.13 | — | -0.56 | — | -0.77 | -0.63 | -1.40 |
| 2000 | #140 | Ralph Brown | DEF | -0.58 | -0.76 | — | -0.69 | — | -0.11 | -0.10 | -1.46 |
| 1998 | #55 | Joe Jurevicius | OFF | -0.32 | -0.91 | — | -0.80 | — | -0.34 | -0.20 | -1.68 |
| 1982 | #4 | Art Schlichter | OFF | -0.52 | -0.90 | — | -1.05 | — | -0.10 | -0.02 | -1.82 |
| 2000 | #11 | Ron Dayne | OFF | -0.09 | -1.00 | — | -0.92 | — | -0.46 | -0.28 | -1.84 |
| 2003 | #91 | Visanthe Shiancoe | OFF | -0.35 | -0.77 | — | -1.06 | — | -0.35 | -0.20 | -1.89 |
| 2003 | #255 | Kevin Walter | OFF | -1.26 | -0.82 | — | -0.88 | — | -0.07 | -0.05 | -1.98 |
| 1987 | #5 | Mike Junkin | DEF | -0.80 | -1.03 | — | -1.17 | — | -0.12 | -0.08 | -2.18 |
| 1982 | #34 | Rohn Stark | ST | +1.31 | -2.57 | — | -1.06 | — | +0.27 | -1.49 | -2.30 |
| 1983 | #161 | Grant Feasel | OFF | -1.14 | -1.24 | — | -1.13 | — | -0.18 | -0.11 | -2.46 |
| 1982 | #2 | Johnie Cooks | DEF | -0.26 | -0.29 | — | -1.08 | — | -2.16 | -1.78 | -3.32 |
| 1989 | #13 | Eric Metcalf | OFF | -0.87 | -1.32 | — | -0.80 | — | -2.91 | -0.63 | -3.66 |
| 1987 | #82 | Jeff Jaeger | ST | -2.16 | -1.53 | — | -1.54 | — | -0.74 | -0.65 | -4.08 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.