Rick Spielman
MIA · Composite skill θ = -0.12 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.97 to +0.73
Evidence: 20 mapped picks across 3 draft classes, 2002–2004 · 100% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.10
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2002–2004MIAGM
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | #19 | Vernon Carey | OFF | +2.06 |
| 2003 | #213 | Yeremiah Bell | DEF | +1.87 |
| 2004 | #222 | Derrick Pope | DEF | +1.10 |
| 2004 | #174 | Rex Hadnot | OFF | +0.57 |
| 2002 | #114 | Randy McMichael | OFF | +0.44 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | #78 | Wade Smith | OFF | -3.34 |
| 2003 | #156 | Donald Lee | OFF | -0.99 |
| 2002 | #161 | Omare Lowe | DEF | -0.91 |
| 2003 | #49 | Eddie Moore | DEF | -0.78 |
| 2004 | #160 | Tony Bua | DEF | -0.31 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 20 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2004 | #19 | Vernon Carey | OFF | +1.39 | +1.47 | — | +0.89 | — | -0.32 | -0.20 | +2.06 |
| 2003 | #213 | Yeremiah Bell | DEF | +1.09 | +0.99 | — | +0.39 | — | +0.99 | -0.10 | +1.87 |
| 2004 | #222 | Derrick Pope | DEF | +0.96 | +0.35 | — | +0.45 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.10 |
| 2004 | #174 | Rex Hadnot | OFF | +0.29 | +0.58 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.08 | -0.06 | +0.57 |
| 2002 | #114 | Randy McMichael | OFF | +0.12 | +0.89 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.26 | -0.16 | +0.44 |
| 2002 | #241 | Leonard Henry | OFF | -0.12 | +0.20 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.13 |
| 2003 | #248 | Davern Williams | DEF | -0.23 | +0.10 | — | +0.12 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| 2002 | #90 | Seth McKinney | OFF | +0.29 | -0.02 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.10 | -0.06 | -0.05 |
| 2003 | #181 | Corey Jenkins | DEF | +0.02 | -0.09 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| 2002 | #170 | Sam Simmons | OFF | -0.09 | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| 2003 | #169 | J.R. Tolver | OFF | -0.37 | -0.02 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.22 |
| 2004 | #102 | Will Poole | DEF | -0.19 | -0.19 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 2004 | #221 | Tony Pape | OFF | -0.30 | -0.15 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| 2003 | #209 | Tim Provost | OFF | -0.31 | -0.15 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 2003 | #87 | Taylor Whitley | OFF | -0.21 | -0.14 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
| 2004 | #160 | Tony Bua | DEF | -0.32 | -0.14 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
| 2003 | #49 | Eddie Moore | DEF | -0.38 | -0.45 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.78 |
| 2002 | #161 | Omare Lowe | DEF | -0.77 | -0.40 | — | -0.31 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.91 |
| 2003 | #156 | Donald Lee | OFF | -0.50 | -0.42 | — | -0.46 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | -0.99 |
| 2003 | #78 | Wade Smith | OFF | -1.60 | -1.31 | — | -1.41 | — | -0.55 | -0.39 | -3.34 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.