Mike Ditka
NO · Composite skill θ = -0.41 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.24 to +0.43
Evidence: 16 mapped picks across 3 draft classes, 1997–1999 · 100% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.34
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1997–1999NOHC with personnel power
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 | #116 | Keith Poole | OFF | +1.11 |
| 1998 | #97 | Fred Weary | DEF | +0.76 |
| 1998 | #161 | Chris Bordano | DEF | +0.55 |
| 1998 | #7 | Kyle Turley | OFF | +0.11 |
| 1997 | #33 | Rob Kelly | DEF | +0.08 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | #5 | Ricky Williams | OFF | -6.55 |
| 1997 | #10 | Chris Naeole | OFF | -2.61 |
| 1998 | #40 | Cam Cleeland | OFF | -0.91 |
| 1998 | #239 | Ron Warner | DEF | -0.64 |
| 1998 | #99 | Julian Pittman | DEF | -0.43 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 16 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1997 | #116 | Keith Poole | OFF | +0.70 | +0.52 | — | +0.51 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.11 |
| 1998 | #97 | Fred Weary | DEF | +0.62 | +0.32 | — | +0.31 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.76 |
| 1998 | #161 | Chris Bordano | DEF | +0.30 | +0.39 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.55 |
| 1998 | #7 | Kyle Turley | OFF | -0.14 | +0.06 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.92 | +1.48 | +0.11 |
| 1997 | #33 | Rob Kelly | DEF | +0.65 | -0.24 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.08 |
| 1997 | #62 | Troy Davis | OFF | +0.44 | +0.01 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.07 |
| 1997 | #99 | Danny Wuerffel | OFF | -0.01 | -0.01 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 1998 | #132 | Wilmont Perry | OFF | -0.14 | +0.11 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.02 |
| 1997 | #165 | Nick Savoie | OFF | -0.39 | -0.07 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.03 |
| 1997 | #39 | Jared Tomich | DEF | +0.38 | -0.16 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.04 |
| 1998 | #204 | Andy McCullough | OFF | -0.28 | +0.06 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.08 |
| 1998 | #99 | Julian Pittman | DEF | -0.47 | -0.17 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 1998 | #239 | Ron Warner | DEF | -0.60 | -0.24 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.64 |
| 1998 | #40 | Cam Cleeland | OFF | -0.54 | -0.23 | — | -0.39 | — | -0.18 | -0.09 | -0.91 |
| 1997 | #10 | Chris Naeole | OFF | -0.63 | -0.50 | — | -1.03 | — | -1.19 | -0.85 | -2.61 |
| 1999 | #5 | Ricky Williams | OFF | -1.86 | -1.53 | — | -1.57 | — | -3.57 | -2.98 | -6.55 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.