Stew Barber
BUF · Composite skill θ = -0.92 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.75 to -0.09
Evidence: 38 mapped picks across 5 draft classes, 1980–1984 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.78
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1980–1984BUFGM 1976-1985; pre-Polian era
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1983 | #14 | Jim Kelly | OFF | +6.82 |
| 1983 | #39 | Darryl Talley | DEF | +1.91 |
| 1980 | #29 | Joe Cribbs | OFF | +1.57 |
| 1980 | #67 | Mark Brammer | OFF | +0.96 |
| 1980 | #93 | Ervin Parker | DEF | +0.76 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1982 | #171 | Gary Anderson | ST | -10.82 |
| 1983 | #93 | Trey Junkin | OFF | -10.01 |
| 1980 | #16 | Jim Ritcher | OFF | -4.93 |
| 1984 | #128 | John Kidd | ST | -3.73 |
| 1982 | #19 | Perry Tuttle | OFF | -1.43 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 38 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1983 | #14 | Jim Kelly | OFF | +1.15 | +1.92 | — | +3.03 | — | +2.87 | +1.64 | +6.82 |
| 1983 | #39 | Darryl Talley | DEF | +1.58 | +1.98 | — | +1.16 | — | -0.28 | -1.77 | +1.91 |
| 1980 | #29 | Joe Cribbs | OFF | -0.30 | +0.18 | — | +0.68 | — | +2.33 | -0.42 | +1.57 |
| 1980 | #67 | Mark Brammer | OFF | +0.70 | +0.67 | — | +0.31 | — | -0.06 | -0.02 | +0.96 |
| 1980 | #93 | Ervin Parker | DEF | +0.57 | +0.25 | — | +0.38 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.76 |
| 1984 | #79 | Sean McNanie | DEF | +0.34 | +0.12 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | +0.23 |
| 1984 | #77 | Rodney Bellinger | DEF | +0.31 | -0.06 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.18 |
| 1984 | #26 | Greg Bell | OFF | -0.40 | +0.03 | — | -0.12 | — | +0.80 | -0.13 | +0.03 |
| 1984 | #182 | Stan David | DEF | -0.13 | -0.07 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| 1982 | #48 | Matt Kofler | OFF | +0.34 | -0.37 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.04 | +0.00 | -0.26 |
| 1982 | #160 | DeWayne Chivers | OFF | -0.57 | -0.19 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.32 |
| 1983 | #180 | Gurnest Brown | DEF | -0.45 | -0.07 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.32 |
| 1981 | #28 | Booker Moore | OFF | +0.22 | +0.19 | — | -0.47 | — | -0.12 | -0.05 | -0.34 |
| 1981 | #161 | Robert Holt | OFF | -0.36 | -0.15 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 1984 | #95 | Mitchell Brookins | OFF | -0.13 | -0.25 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 1981 | #135 | Calvin Clark | DEF | -0.59 | -0.20 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.56 |
| 1983 | #126 | Matt Vanden Boom | DEF | -0.58 | -0.21 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.56 |
| 1981 | #76 | Mike Mosley | OFF | -0.27 | -0.35 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.59 |
| 1981 | #188 | Steve Doolittle | DEF | -0.57 | -0.19 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.59 |
| 1984 | #82 | Speedy Neal | OFF | -0.42 | -0.25 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.60 |
| 1983 | #112 | Jimmy Payne | DEF | -0.61 | -0.23 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.61 |
| 1981 | #49 | Chris Williams | DEF | -0.37 | -0.43 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.69 |
| 1980 | #119 | Jeff Pyburn | DEF | -0.66 | -0.28 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.71 |
| 1982 | #93 | Van Williams | OFF | -0.08 | -0.41 | — | -0.43 | — | -0.08 | -0.03 | -0.73 |
| 1982 | #59 | Eugene Marve | DEF | -0.33 | +0.36 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.81 | -0.50 | -0.75 |
| 1981 | #50 | Byron Franklin | OFF | -0.20 | -0.32 | — | -0.42 | — | -0.19 | -0.08 | -0.81 |
| 1984 | #41 | Eric Richardson | OFF | -0.12 | -0.51 | — | -0.49 | — | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.85 |
| 1981 | #83 | Robert Geathers | DEF | -0.73 | -0.36 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.87 |
| 1980 | #129 | Keith Lee | DEF | -0.83 | -0.43 | — | -0.35 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.01 |
| 1980 | #37 | Gene Bradley | OFF | -0.63 | -0.49 | — | -0.49 | — | -0.05 | -0.01 | -1.08 |
| 1983 | #12 | Tony Hunter | OFF | -0.55 | -0.70 | — | -0.54 | — | -0.12 | -0.05 | -1.24 |
| 1980 | #71 | John Schmeding | OFF | -0.82 | -0.64 | — | -0.52 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -1.29 |
| 1984 | #155 | Tony Slaton | OFF | -0.90 | -0.66 | — | -0.56 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.38 |
| 1982 | #19 | Perry Tuttle | OFF | -0.64 | -0.74 | — | -0.66 | — | -0.11 | -0.04 | -1.43 |
| 1984 | #128 | John Kidd | ST | -0.59 | -1.85 | — | -1.62 | — | -0.90 | -0.88 | -3.73 |
| 1980 | #16 | Jim Ritcher | OFF | +1.29 | +1.27 | — | +0.31 | — | -7.86 | -5.17 | -4.93 |
| 1983 | #93 | Trey Junkin | OFF | -3.90 | -3.55 | — | -3.98 | — | -2.65 | -1.98 | -10.01 |
| 1982 | #171 | Gary Anderson | ST | -5.02 | -3.79 | — | -4.89 | — | -1.15 | -1.90 | -10.82 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.