Sashi Brown
CLE · Composite skill θ = +0.08 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.49 to +0.64
Evidence: 24 mapped picks across 2 draft classes, 2016–2017 · 100% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.20
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2016–2017CLEAnalytics era
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | #1 | Myles Garrett | DEF | +11.46 |
| 2016 | #99 | Joe Schobert | DEF | +1.33 |
| 2016 | #138 | Seth Devalve | OFF | +0.46 |
| 2017 | #29 | David Njoku | OFF | +0.38 |
| 2016 | #172 | Rashard Higgins | OFF | +0.34 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | #32 | Emmanuel Ogbah | DEF | -2.22 |
| 2017 | #25 | Jabrill Peppers | DEF | -2.19 |
| 2016 | #15 | Corey Coleman | OFF | -1.63 |
| 2017 | #224 | Zane Gonzalez | ST | -1.22 |
| 2016 | #65 | Carl Nassib | DEF | -1.07 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 24 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2017 | #1 | Myles Garrett | DEF | +1.25 | +1.46 | +1.91 | +2.86 | +2.22 | +5.47 | +9.28 | +11.46 |
| 2016 | #99 | Joe Schobert | DEF | +0.24 | +0.52 | +1.31 | +0.43 | +0.02 | +0.95 | -0.10 | +1.33 |
| 2016 | #138 | Seth Devalve | OFF | +0.29 | -0.06 | +0.44 | +0.19 | +0.35 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.46 |
| 2017 | #29 | David Njoku | OFF | +0.91 | +0.82 | +0.48 | +0.08 | -0.18 | -0.07 | -0.52 | +0.38 |
| 2016 | #172 | Rashard Higgins | OFF | +1.02 | -0.12 | +0.47 | +0.08 | -0.21 | -0.08 | -0.05 | +0.34 |
| 2016 | #168 | Spencer Drango | OFF | +0.18 | +0.11 | -0.07 | +0.06 | +0.28 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.22 |
| 2016 | #129 | Derrick Kindred | DEF | +0.34 | +0.15 | +0.28 | +0.14 | -0.34 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.13 |
| 2016 | #93 | Cody Kessler | OFF | -0.16 | -0.01 | -0.12 | -0.08 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| 2017 | #252 | Matthew Dayes | OFF | -0.10 | -0.07 | +0.01 | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 2017 | #185 | Caleb Brantley | DEF | -0.28 | -0.17 | +0.03 | -0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 2017 | #65 | Larry Ogunjobi | DEF | -0.26 | +0.02 | +0.46 | -0.17 | -0.34 | -0.45 | -0.20 | -0.51 |
| 2016 | #250 | Scooby Wright III | DEF | -0.53 | -0.18 | -0.36 | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.54 |
| 2017 | #160 | Roderick Johnson | OFF | -0.64 | -0.45 | +0.11 | -0.32 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.68 |
| 2016 | #173 | Trey Caldwell | DEF | -0.56 | -0.22 | -0.84 | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.70 |
| 2016 | #114 | Ricardo Louis | OFF | +0.07 | -0.01 | -0.14 | -0.17 | -1.13 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.71 |
| 2016 | #154 | Jordan Payton | OFF | -0.51 | -0.24 | -0.93 | -0.22 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.80 |
| 2016 | #76 | Shon Coleman | OFF | -0.29 | -0.24 | -0.59 | -0.25 | -0.56 | -0.07 | -0.03 | -0.82 |
| 2017 | #126 | Howard Wilson | DEF | -0.71 | -0.35 | -1.15 | -0.24 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.01 |
| 2017 | #52 | DeShone Kizer | OFF | -0.26 | -0.04 | -0.16 | -0.19 | -1.50 | -0.06 | -0.01 | -1.05 |
| 2016 | #65 | Carl Nassib | DEF | -0.54 | -0.47 | +0.27 | -0.45 | -1.00 | -0.16 | -0.07 | -1.07 |
| 2017 | #224 | Zane Gonzalez | ST | -0.91 | -0.57 | -0.22 | -0.51 | — | -0.14 | -0.13 | -1.22 |
| 2016 | #15 | Corey Coleman | OFF | -0.69 | -0.52 | -0.78 | -0.76 | -0.91 | -0.20 | -0.09 | -1.63 |
| 2017 | #25 | Jabrill Peppers | DEF | -1.23 | -0.82 | -0.63 | -0.97 | +0.12 | -1.05 | -0.70 | -2.19 |
| 2016 | #32 | Emmanuel Ogbah | DEF | -1.10 | -0.59 | -0.22 | -0.86 | -0.81 | -1.02 | -0.47 | -2.22 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.