Ken Herock
ATL · Composite skill θ = -0.98 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.74 to -0.22
Evidence: 62 mapped picks across 10 draft classes, 1986–1995 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.32
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1986–1995ATLVP Player Personnel; long-tenured ATL exec; covers post-Braatz era and into Falcons' transition
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | #201 | Jamal Anderson | OFF | +4.12 |
| 1991 | #87 | Moe Gardner | DEF | +2.65 |
| 1995 | #181 | Travis Hall | DEF | +2.41 |
| 1992 | #51 | Chuck Smith | DEF | +2.32 |
| 1988 | #140 | Houston Hoover | OFF | +2.03 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 | #33 | Brett Favre | OFF | -9.67 |
| 1989 | #5 | Deion Sanders | DEF | -6.46 |
| 1988 | #1 | Aundray Bruce | DEF | -5.90 |
| 1986 | #2 | Tony Casillas | DEF | -4.53 |
| 1993 | #9 | Lincoln Kennedy | OFF | -4.20 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 62 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1994 | #201 | Jamal Anderson | OFF | +1.20 | +1.34 | — | +1.81 | — | -0.05 | +2.12 | +4.12 |
| 1991 | #87 | Moe Gardner | DEF | +1.41 | +1.95 | — | +0.99 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +2.65 |
| 1995 | #181 | Travis Hall | DEF | +1.65 | +1.46 | — | +0.94 | — | -0.10 | -0.06 | +2.41 |
| 1992 | #51 | Chuck Smith | DEF | +1.45 | +1.28 | — | +1.09 | — | -0.17 | -0.08 | +2.32 |
| 1988 | #140 | Houston Hoover | OFF | +1.03 | +1.34 | — | +0.87 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +2.03 |
| 1988 | #166 | Michael Haynes | OFF | +0.95 | +1.06 | — | +0.74 | — | -0.13 | -0.08 | +1.64 |
| 1986 | #154 | Floyd Dixon | OFF | +1.18 | +0.89 | — | +0.44 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +1.45 |
| 1991 | #145 | Erric Pegram | OFF | +0.63 | +0.38 | — | +0.37 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.83 |
| 1994 | #45 | Bert Emanuel | OFF | +0.17 | +0.70 | — | +0.47 | — | -0.17 | -0.09 | +0.77 |
| 1989 | #62 | Keith Jones | OFF | +0.49 | +0.51 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.60 |
| 1988 | #138 | George Thomas | OFF | +0.65 | +0.14 | — | +0.20 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.59 |
| 1987 | #181 | Michael Reid | DEF | +0.95 | +0.04 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.54 |
| 1993 | #178 | Darnell Walker | DEF | +0.54 | +0.26 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.38 |
| 1993 | #38 | Roger Harper | DEF | +0.23 | +0.41 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.36 |
| 1991 | #172 | Brian Mitchell | DEF | +0.50 | -0.03 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.34 |
| 1993 | #67 | Harold Alexander | ST | +0.09 | -0.01 | — | +0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.25 |
| 1995 | #145 | Roell Preston | OFF | +0.30 | +0.01 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.24 |
| 1986 | #17 | Tim Green | DEF | +0.72 | +0.51 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.39 | -0.24 | +0.23 |
| 1993 | #151 | Mitch Lyons | OFF | +0.38 | +0.05 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.13 |
| 1995 | #245 | John Burrough | DEF | +0.73 | -0.27 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.13 |
| 1994 | #111 | Perry Klein | OFF | -0.12 | +0.04 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.02 |
| 1992 | #158 | Terry Ray | DEF | -0.16 | +0.01 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.02 |
| 1993 | #121 | Ron George | DEF | +0.29 | +0.03 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.07 | -0.05 | -0.08 |
| 1989 | #27 | Shawn Collins | OFF | +0.01 | -0.01 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.17 |
| 1986 | #159 | Keith Williams | OFF | -0.15 | -0.08 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| 1989 | #172 | Undra Johnson | OFF | -0.39 | +0.02 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 1994 | #72 | Anthony Phillips | DEF | -0.19 | -0.06 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 1987 | #125 | Mark Mraz | DEF | -0.24 | -0.14 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 1994 | #138 | Harrison Houston | OFF | -0.42 | -0.07 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
| 1990 | #55 | Oliver Barnett | DEF | +0.21 | -0.29 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.32 |
| 1990 | #139 | Mike Pringle | OFF | -0.40 | -0.04 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 1992 | #182 | Tim Paulk | DEF | -0.43 | -0.08 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 1991 | #186 | Mark Tucker | OFF | -0.36 | -0.18 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 1990 | #121 | Reggie Redding | OFF | -0.19 | -0.33 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.44 |
| 1987 | #153 | Paul Kiser | OFF | -0.46 | -0.28 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.56 |
| 1994 | #118 | Mitch Davis | DEF | -0.56 | -0.21 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.58 |
| 1991 | #114 | James Goode | DEF | -0.59 | -0.24 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.62 |
| 1990 | #27 | Darion Conner | DEF | -0.08 | +0.06 | — | -0.46 | — | -0.26 | -0.16 | -0.68 |
| 1994 | #99 | Alai Kalaniuvalu | OFF | -0.54 | -0.38 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.72 |
| 1995 | #41 | Ron Davis | DEF | -0.47 | -0.36 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.73 |
| 1995 | #77 | Lorenzo Styles | DEF | -0.20 | -0.53 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.76 |
| 1988 | #56 | Alex Higdon | OFF | -0.71 | -0.47 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.77 |
| 1995 | #26 | Devin Bush Sr. | DEF | -0.10 | -0.19 | — | -0.50 | — | -0.20 | -0.14 | -0.82 |
| 1987 | #97 | Ralph Van Dyke | OFF | -0.61 | -0.43 | — | -0.31 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.85 |
| 1988 | #28 | Marcus Cotton | DEF | -0.14 | -0.55 | — | -0.46 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.85 |
| 1992 | #73 | Howard Dinkins | DEF | -0.64 | -0.38 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.86 |
| 1992 | #19 | Tony Smith | OFF | -0.13 | -0.53 | — | -0.56 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.95 |
| 1987 | #31 | Kenny Flowers | OFF | -0.51 | -0.52 | — | -0.56 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | -1.13 |
| 1989 | #38 | Ralph Norwood | OFF | -0.56 | -0.71 | — | -0.55 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -1.21 |
| 1987 | #13 | Chris Miller | OFF | -0.76 | -0.44 | — | -0.43 | — | -0.49 | -0.32 | -1.44 |
| 1991 | #13 | Mike Pritchard | OFF | -0.64 | -0.48 | — | -0.63 | — | -0.56 | -0.31 | -1.62 |
| 1991 | #3 | Bruce Pickens | DEF | -0.38 | -0.98 | — | -1.18 | — | -0.09 | -0.07 | -1.94 |
| 1990 | #20 | Steve Broussard | OFF | -0.55 | -0.98 | — | -0.80 | — | -0.61 | -0.33 | -2.03 |
| 1989 | #145 | Troy Sadowski | OFF | -1.23 | -1.03 | — | -0.81 | — | -0.15 | -0.08 | -2.05 |
| 1992 | #104 | Frankie Smith | DEF | -1.36 | -0.91 | — | -0.83 | — | -0.11 | -0.08 | -2.05 |
| 1992 | #8 | Bob Whitfield | OFF | +1.05 | +1.45 | — | +0.43 | — | -4.08 | -3.47 | -2.09 |
| 1988 | #110 | Charles Dimry | DEF | -0.90 | -1.03 | — | -1.20 | — | -0.35 | -0.28 | -2.48 |
| 1993 | #9 | Lincoln Kennedy | OFF | -1.11 | -1.67 | — | -1.73 | — | -1.27 | -0.89 | -4.20 |
| 1986 | #2 | Tony Casillas | DEF | -0.97 | -1.01 | — | -1.60 | — | -2.34 | -1.53 | -4.53 |
| 1988 | #1 | Aundray Bruce | DEF | -0.84 | -1.55 | — | -2.20 | — | -2.42 | -2.60 | -5.90 |
| 1989 | #5 | Deion Sanders | DEF | -2.14 | -1.84 | — | -1.72 | — | -2.74 | -2.76 | -6.46 |
| 1991 | #33 | Brett Favre | OFF | -4.06 | -3.59 | — | -4.30 | — | -2.37 | -0.72 | -9.67 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.