Mike Allman
SEA · Composite skill θ = -0.64 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.45 to +0.16
Evidence: 27 mapped picks across 4 draft classes, 1995–1998 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.61
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1995–1998SEAGM
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 | #6 | Walter Jones | OFF | +12.55 |
| 1998 | #15 | Anthony Simmons | DEF | +1.13 |
| 1997 | #174 | Itula Mili | OFF | +0.66 |
| 1996 | #91 | Reggie Brown | OFF | +0.39 |
| 1996 | #209 | T.J. Cunningham | DEF | +0.12 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | #8 | Joey Galloway | OFF | -7.44 |
| 1995 | #126 | Jason Kyle | DEF | -5.51 |
| 1997 | #3 | Shawn Springs | DEF | -4.32 |
| 1998 | #76 | Ahman Green | OFF | -3.61 |
| 1996 | #47 | Fred Thomas | DEF | -3.48 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 27 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1997 | #6 | Walter Jones | OFF | +1.84 | +2.41 | — | +2.93 | — | +7.92 | +7.06 | +12.55 |
| 1998 | #15 | Anthony Simmons | DEF | +0.70 | +0.94 | — | +0.47 | — | -0.19 | -0.13 | +1.13 |
| 1997 | #174 | Itula Mili | OFF | +1.32 | +0.19 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.10 | -0.06 | +0.66 |
| 1996 | #91 | Reggie Brown | OFF | +0.91 | +0.12 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.39 |
| 1996 | #209 | T.J. Cunningham | DEF | -0.07 | +0.05 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.12 |
| 1996 | #225 | Johnie Church | DEF | -0.24 | +0.10 | — | +0.12 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| 1995 | #216 | Keif Bryant | DEF | -0.26 | +0.08 | — | +0.10 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| 1997 | #211 | Carlos Jones | DEF | -0.28 | +0.05 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.02 |
| 1995 | #180 | Henry McMillian | DEF | -0.23 | +0.03 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.04 |
| 1995 | #203 | Eddie Goines | OFF | -0.28 | +0.06 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.08 |
| 1997 | #142 | Eric Stokes | DEF | -0.15 | -0.07 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 1998 | #162 | Carl Hansen | DEF | -0.36 | -0.01 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.15 |
| 1998 | #108 | DeShone Myles | DEF | -0.17 | -0.04 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| 1998 | #197 | Jason McEndoo | OFF | -0.29 | -0.15 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| 1996 | #184 | Reggie Green | OFF | -0.34 | -0.17 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 1996 | #131 | Eric Unverzagt | DEF | -0.31 | -0.17 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 1996 | #77 | Robert Barr | OFF | -0.61 | -0.46 | — | -0.32 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.88 |
| 1998 | #169 | Bobby Shaw | OFF | -0.74 | -0.35 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.91 |
| 1995 | #39 | Christian Fauria | OFF | -0.07 | -0.08 | — | -1.26 | — | -1.18 | -0.67 | -2.26 |
| 1998 | #47 | Todd Weiner | OFF | -0.82 | -1.20 | — | -1.18 | — | -0.54 | -0.35 | -2.64 |
| 1996 | #21 | Pete Kendall | OFF | -0.80 | -0.37 | — | -0.88 | — | -1.65 | -1.19 | -2.88 |
| 1996 | #99 | Phillip Daniels | DEF | -1.31 | -1.02 | — | -1.35 | — | -0.59 | -0.39 | -3.01 |
| 1996 | #47 | Fred Thomas | DEF | -1.10 | -1.64 | — | -1.54 | — | -0.63 | -0.51 | -3.48 |
| 1998 | #76 | Ahman Green | OFF | -1.40 | -1.55 | — | -1.59 | — | -0.65 | -0.44 | -3.61 |
| 1997 | #3 | Shawn Springs | DEF | -0.51 | -0.29 | — | -1.22 | — | -2.54 | -2.86 | -4.32 |
| 1995 | #126 | Jason Kyle | DEF | -1.89 | -2.40 | — | -2.58 | — | -0.76 | -0.82 | -5.51 |
| 1995 | #8 | Joey Galloway | OFF | -1.77 | -1.34 | — | -1.47 | — | -4.78 | -4.06 | -7.44 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.