John Butler
BUF · Composite skill θ = -0.26 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.99 to +0.47
Evidence: 68 mapped picks across 8 draft classes, 1993–2000 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.29
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1993–2000BUFPromoted for 1993 draft; formally GM thereafter; left Jan 2001 for SD
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | #24 | Eric Moulds | OFF | +3.44 |
| 1995 | #14 | Ruben Brown | OFF | +2.90 |
| 1996 | #244 | Jay Riemersma | OFF | +1.51 |
| 1993 | #28 | Thomas Smith | DEF | +1.38 |
| 1994 | #61 | Lonnie Johnson | OFF | +1.32 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | #45 | Todd Collins | OFF | -5.31 |
| 1999 | #23 | Antoine Winfield | DEF | -4.13 |
| 1993 | #55 | John Parrella | DEF | -3.88 |
| 1995 | #221 | Tom Nutten | OFF | -2.69 |
| 2000 | #156 | Sammy Morris | OFF | -2.33 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 68 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1996 | #24 | Eric Moulds | OFF | +1.38 | +1.70 | — | +1.76 | — | +1.02 | -0.74 | +3.44 |
| 1995 | #14 | Ruben Brown | OFF | +0.60 | +1.20 | — | +0.99 | — | +3.49 | -1.47 | +2.90 |
| 1996 | #244 | Jay Riemersma | OFF | +1.08 | +1.10 | — | +0.45 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | +1.51 |
| 1993 | #28 | Thomas Smith | DEF | +1.00 | +1.27 | — | +0.50 | — | -0.30 | -0.21 | +1.38 |
| 1994 | #61 | Lonnie Johnson | OFF | +0.88 | +1.20 | — | +0.32 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | +1.32 |
| 1995 | #244 | Darick Holmes | OFF | +0.92 | +0.24 | — | +0.59 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +1.16 |
| 1996 | #202 | Dusty Zeigler | OFF | +0.41 | +0.73 | — | +0.53 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.08 |
| 1994 | #64 | Sam Rogers | DEF | +0.66 | +0.85 | — | +0.53 | — | -0.29 | -0.21 | +1.04 |
| 1996 | #53 | Gabe Northern | DEF | +0.77 | +0.49 | — | +0.42 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.03 |
| 1995 | #144 | John Holecek | DEF | +0.30 | +0.73 | — | +0.45 | — | -0.05 | -0.04 | +0.92 |
| 1999 | #53 | Peerless Price | OFF | +0.53 | +0.85 | — | +0.41 | — | -0.23 | -0.13 | +0.92 |
| 1999 | #230 | Sheldon Jackson | OFF | +0.79 | +0.40 | — | +0.29 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.88 |
| 1993 | #111 | Russell Copeland | OFF | +0.72 | +0.27 | — | +0.28 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.75 |
| 1998 | #131 | Jonathan Linton | OFF | +0.61 | +0.08 | — | +0.31 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.64 |
| 1996 | #249 | Eric Smedley | DEF | +0.63 | +0.13 | — | +0.23 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.61 |
| 1995 | #131 | Tony Cline | OFF | +0.53 | +0.11 | — | +0.24 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.55 |
| 1996 | #237 | Dan Brandenburg | DEF | +0.70 | +0.04 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.50 |
| 1994 | #81 | Marlo Perry | DEF | +0.97 | -0.18 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.49 |
| 1998 | #68 | Robert Hicks | OFF | +0.25 | +0.13 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.38 |
| 1994 | #98 | Corey Louchiey | OFF | +0.54 | -0.02 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.35 |
| 1998 | #39 | Sam Cowart | DEF | -0.37 | -0.02 | — | +0.14 | — | +0.91 | -0.12 | +0.34 |
| 2000 | #194 | Leif Larsen | DEF | +0.09 | +0.18 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.34 |
| 1995 | #109 | Ken Irvin | DEF | +0.84 | +0.21 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.21 | -0.18 | +0.31 |
| 1999 | #122 | Bobby Collins | OFF | +0.12 | +0.00 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.27 |
| 1999 | #119 | Keith Newman | DEF | +0.07 | +0.42 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.07 | -0.05 | +0.24 |
| 1995 | #76 | Marlon Kerner | DEF | +0.43 | -0.09 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.23 |
| 1998 | #238 | Kamil Loud | OFF | +0.07 | +0.11 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.21 |
| 1997 | #226 | Pat Fitzgerald | OFF | -0.30 | +0.03 | — | +0.29 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.16 |
| 1995 | #96 | Damien Covington | DEF | +0.11 | +0.03 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.14 |
| 1997 | #120 | Jamie Nails | OFF | +0.31 | -0.05 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.06 |
| 1994 | #221 | Filmel Johnson | DEF | -0.22 | +0.06 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| 1995 | #113 | Justin Armour | OFF | -0.11 | +0.12 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.01 |
| 1996 | #156 | Raymond Jackson | DEF | +0.27 | -0.22 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.01 |
| 2000 | #233 | Drew Haddad | OFF | -0.21 | +0.09 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 2000 | #251 | DaShon Polk | DEF | +0.58 | -0.30 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| 1994 | #188 | Anthony Abrams | DEF | -0.31 | +0.04 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.07 |
| 1995 | #185 | Shannon Clavelle | DEF | -0.32 | +0.04 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.07 |
| 1999 | #194 | Armon Hatcher | DEF | -0.31 | +0.02 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| 1996 | #196 | Leon Neal | OFF | -0.32 | +0.10 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| 1993 | #195 | Willie Harris | OFF | -0.30 | +0.04 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.12 |
| 1994 | #192 | Kevin Knox | OFF | -0.31 | +0.04 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.12 |
| 2000 | #121 | Avion Black | OFF | -0.07 | -0.12 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.15 |
| 1997 | #153 | Sean Woodson | DEF | -0.39 | -0.05 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| 1997 | #185 | Marcus Spriggs | OFF | -0.01 | -0.16 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.21 |
| 1998 | #160 | Fred Coleman | OFF | -0.36 | -0.02 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.22 |
| 1993 | #139 | Sebastian Savage | DEF | -0.43 | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.28 |
| 1998 | #198 | Victor Allotey | OFF | -0.31 | -0.15 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.30 |
| 1994 | #130 | Sean Crocker | DEF | -0.45 | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
| 1994 | #158 | A.J. Ofodile | OFF | -0.63 | -0.26 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 1999 | #156 | Jay Foreman | DEF | -0.16 | -0.13 | — | -0.27 | — | -0.05 | -0.04 | -0.45 |
| 2000 | #89 | Corey Moore | DEF | -0.43 | -0.20 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 1996 | #120 | Sean Moran | DEF | +0.22 | -0.49 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.07 | -0.05 | -0.53 |
| 1993 | #136 | Mike Devlin | OFF | +0.22 | -0.63 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.60 |
| 2000 | #26 | Erik Flowers | DEF | -0.09 | -0.47 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.68 |
| 1999 | #86 | Shawn Bryson | OFF | -0.30 | -0.44 | — | -0.38 | — | -0.12 | -0.07 | -0.85 |
| 1994 | #48 | Bucky Brooks | DEF | -0.65 | -0.45 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.90 |
| 1996 | #87 | Matt Stevens | DEF | -0.86 | -0.47 | — | -0.40 | — | -0.08 | -0.06 | -1.14 |
| 1999 | #248 | Bryce Fisher | DEF | -0.72 | -0.55 | — | -0.51 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -1.16 |
| 1997 | #52 | Marcellus Wiley | DEF | -0.18 | -0.79 | — | -0.55 | — | -0.24 | -0.12 | -1.22 |
| 1993 | #167 | Corbin Lacina | OFF | -0.32 | -0.56 | — | -0.68 | — | -0.15 | -0.11 | -1.25 |
| 2000 | #58 | Travares Tillman | DEF | -0.61 | -0.64 | — | -0.57 | — | -0.12 | -0.08 | -1.30 |
| 1997 | #23 | Antowain Smith | OFF | -0.33 | -0.58 | — | -0.46 | — | -0.50 | -0.29 | -1.31 |
| 1994 | #27 | Jeff Burris | DEF | -0.58 | -0.51 | — | -0.69 | — | -0.46 | -0.34 | -1.64 |
| 2000 | #156 | Sammy Morris | OFF | -0.63 | -1.07 | — | -1.21 | — | -0.30 | -0.23 | -2.33 |
| 1995 | #221 | Tom Nutten | OFF | -1.52 | -1.24 | — | -1.22 | — | -0.10 | -0.08 | -2.69 |
| 1993 | #55 | John Parrella | DEF | -1.95 | -1.71 | — | -1.68 | — | -0.49 | -0.25 | -3.88 |
| 1999 | #23 | Antoine Winfield | DEF | -1.12 | -0.85 | — | -1.45 | — | -1.76 | -1.62 | -4.13 |
| 1995 | #45 | Todd Collins | OFF | -2.24 | -2.02 | — | -2.42 | — | -1.23 | -0.30 | -5.31 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.