Les Snead
LAR · Composite skill θ = +0.47 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.71 to +1.65
Composite θ
+0.47
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-0.71–+1.65
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
78%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Elite
directional only
Evidence: 126 mapped picks across 14 draft classes, 2012–2025 · 75% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.44
- maturity discount
- -0.16
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2012–2025LARSTL→LAR; same GM
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | #13 | Aaron Donald | DEF | +16.36 |
| 2023 | #177 | Puka Nacua | OFF | +6.44 |
| 2015 | #10 | Todd Gurley | OFF | +4.54 |
| 2017 | #69 | Cooper Kupp | OFF | +3.95 |
| 2024 | #19 | Jared Verse | DEF | +2.88 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | #8 | Tavon Austin | OFF | -2.19 |
| 2014 | #2 | Greg Robinson | OFF | -2.17 |
| 2012 | #39 | Jackrabbit Jenkins | DEF | -1.75 |
| 2018 | #135 | John Franklin-Myers | DEF | -1.51 |
| 2018 | #160 | Ogbonnia Okoronkwo | DEF | -1.40 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 126 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2014 | #13 | Aaron Donald | DEF | +1.57 | +2.22 | +3.44 | +4.77 | +2.36 | +6.37 | +14.41 | +16.36 |
| 2023 | #177 | Puka Nacua | OFF | +0.68 | +1.14 | +1.22 | +1.72 | +4.85 | +2.17 | +2.14 | +6.44 |
| 2015 | #10 | Todd Gurley | OFF | +0.37 | +0.75 | +2.04 | +1.04 | +0.12 | +1.74 | +4.06 | +4.54 |
| 2017 | #69 | Cooper Kupp | OFF | +0.82 | +1.20 | +1.45 | +1.86 | +1.41 | +0.48 | +1.83 | +3.95 |
| 2024 | #19 | Jared Verse | DEF | +0.02 | +0.24 | +0.15 | +0.32 | +3.05 | +2.13 | -0.02 | +2.88 |
| 2022 | #164 | Kyren Williams | OFF | +0.74 | +1.06 | +1.63 | +1.23 | +0.86 | +1.05 | -0.02 | +2.69 |
| 2023 | #77 | Byron Young | DEF | +0.50 | +0.94 | +0.71 | +0.76 | +1.76 | +1.05 | -0.02 | +2.48 |
| 2016 | #110 | Tyler Higbee | OFF | +1.52 | +2.18 | +1.71 | +0.58 | +0.19 | -0.52 | -0.26 | +1.81 |
| 2022 | #142 | Cobie Durant | DEF | +0.85 | +0.81 | +0.85 | +0.56 | +0.83 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.49 |
| 2023 | #89 | Kobie Turner | DEF | +0.63 | +0.75 | +1.21 | +0.71 | +0.54 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +1.46 |
| 2015 | #57 | Rob Havenstein | OFF | +1.42 | +2.22 | +1.39 | +1.43 | -0.52 | -1.23 | -0.76 | +1.14 |
| 2014 | #188 | E.J. Gaines | DEF | +0.12 | +0.54 | +1.20 | +0.32 | +0.66 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.10 |
| 2022 | #211 | Quentin Lake | DEF | +0.72 | +0.68 | +1.23 | +0.39 | +0.00 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.06 |
| 2020 | #199 | Jordan Fuller | DEF | +0.33 | +0.82 | +0.75 | +0.34 | +0.57 | -0.05 | -0.04 | +1.03 |
| 2013 | #71 | T.J. McDonald | DEF | +0.30 | +0.83 | +1.35 | +0.34 | +0.16 | -0.08 | -0.05 | +1.02 |
| 2023 | #223 | Ethan Evans | ST | +0.89 | +0.33 | +1.10 | +0.57 | -0.15 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.97 |
| 2024 | #217 | Beaux Limmer | OFF | +0.32 | +0.33 | +0.70 | +0.27 | +0.77 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.96 |
| 2024 | #209 | Joshua Karty | ST | +0.40 | +0.43 | +0.53 | +0.47 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.91 |
| 2023 | #174 | Warren McClendon | OFF | +0.46 | +0.16 | +0.21 | +0.22 | +1.03 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.90 |
| 2018 | #195 | Sebastian Joseph-Day | DEF | -0.24 | +0.31 | -0.25 | +0.15 | +1.80 | -0.10 | -0.05 | +0.85 |
| 2021 | #117 | Bobby Brown | DEF | +0.35 | +0.38 | -0.47 | +0.25 | +1.30 | -0.06 | -0.02 | +0.83 |
| 2013 | #160 | Zac Stacy | OFF | +0.10 | +0.35 | +0.41 | +0.27 | +0.79 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.80 |
| 2024 | #39 | Braden Fiske | DEF | +0.15 | +0.23 | +0.18 | +0.22 | +1.04 | -0.04 | -0.01 | +0.80 |
| 2012 | #65 | Trumaine Johnson | DEF | +0.66 | +0.71 | +0.99 | +0.31 | +0.04 | -0.21 | -0.14 | +0.79 |
| 2019 | #169 | David Edwards | OFF | +0.21 | +0.41 | +0.67 | +0.31 | +0.60 | -0.11 | -0.07 | +0.79 |
| 2012 | #252 | Daryl Richardson | OFF | +0.21 | +0.12 | +1.25 | +0.26 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.78 |
| 2025 | #242 | Konata Mumpfield | OFF | +0.42 | +0.29 | +0.83 | +0.20 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.71 |
| 2023 | #36 | Steve Avila | OFF | +0.17 | +0.32 | +0.26 | +0.22 | +0.80 | -0.09 | -0.04 | +0.70 |
| 2023 | #259 | Desjuan Johnson | DEF | +0.41 | +0.07 | +0.10 | +0.19 | +0.71 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.63 |
| 2024 | #213 | Jordan Whittington | OFF | +0.60 | +0.38 | +0.84 | +0.28 | -0.21 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.63 |
| 2022 | #253 | Russ Yeast | DEF | +0.56 | +0.35 | +0.55 | +0.26 | +0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.62 |
| 2024 | #99 | Kamren Kinchens | ST | +0.38 | +0.19 | +0.30 | +0.26 | +0.43 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.62 |
| 2012 | #171 | Greg Zuerlein | ST | +0.63 | -1.37 | +0.37 | -0.43 | -0.31 | +0.59 | +1.60 | +0.61 |
| 2022 | #212 | Derion Kendrick | DEF | +0.41 | +0.35 | +0.53 | +0.18 | +0.16 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.58 |
| 2016 | #117 | Pharoh Cooper | OFF | -0.34 | -0.58 | -0.40 | -0.50 | -0.54 | +0.97 | +2.08 | +0.56 |
| 2012 | #96 | Chris Givens | OFF | +0.50 | +0.37 | +0.49 | +0.21 | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.49 |
| 2024 | #196 | Tyler Davis | DEF | +0.59 | +0.14 | +0.62 | +0.22 | -0.20 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.46 |
| 2012 | #14 | Michael Brockers | DEF | +1.00 | +1.69 | +1.11 | +0.79 | -0.25 | -1.50 | -0.79 | +0.39 |
| 2018 | #111 | Brian Allen | OFF | +0.23 | +0.12 | -0.61 | +0.14 | +0.94 | -0.10 | -0.05 | +0.37 |
| 2023 | #189 | Ochaun Mathis | DEF | +0.01 | +0.13 | +0.47 | +0.15 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.35 |
| 2021 | #103 | Ernest Jones | DEF | +0.17 | +0.32 | +0.46 | +0.14 | +0.03 | -0.09 | -0.05 | +0.34 |
| 2025 | #148 | Ty Hamilton | DEF | +0.17 | +0.14 | +0.20 | +0.14 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.31 |
| 2023 | #175 | Davis Allen | OFF | +0.69 | +0.19 | +0.43 | +0.27 | -0.51 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.31 |
| 2014 | #110 | Maurice Alexander | DEF | +0.11 | +0.13 | +0.21 | +0.06 | +0.32 | -0.05 | -0.04 | +0.29 |
| 2024 | #83 | Blake Corum | OFF | +0.31 | -0.11 | -0.08 | +0.14 | +0.32 | -0.04 | -0.01 | +0.25 |
| 2017 | #91 | John Johnson | DEF | +0.35 | +0.58 | +0.11 | +0.10 | +0.09 | -0.25 | -0.17 | +0.23 |
| 2019 | #70 | Darrell Henderson | OFF | +0.35 | +0.35 | -0.14 | +0.17 | -0.02 | -0.13 | -0.06 | +0.16 |
| 2021 | #249 | Ben Skowronek | OFF | +0.52 | +0.11 | +0.88 | +0.04 | -0.68 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.16 |
| 2024 | #254 | KT Leveston | OFF | -0.13 | -0.02 | +0.55 | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.13 |
| 2014 | #250 | Demetrius Rhaney | OFF | +0.37 | -0.22 | +0.28 | -0.07 | +0.05 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.12 |
| 2022 | #261 | AJ Arcuri | OFF | +0.01 | -0.08 | +0.48 | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.12 |
| 2015 | #215 | Cody Wichmann | OFF | +0.09 | +0.18 | +0.04 | +0.05 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.11 |
| 2025 | #90 | Josaiah Stewart | DEF | +0.09 | -0.03 | +0.12 | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 |
| 2019 | #134 | Greg Gaines | DEF | +0.30 | -0.01 | +0.35 | +0.00 | -0.09 | -0.11 | -0.05 | +0.09 |
| 2024 | #154 | Brennan Jackson | DEF | -0.12 | +0.06 | +0.12 | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 |
| 2021 | #57 | Tutu Atwell | OFF | +0.52 | +0.04 | -0.74 | +0.02 | +0.38 | -0.17 | -0.07 | +0.02 |
| 2019 | #61 | Taylor Rapp | DEF | +0.01 | +0.33 | +0.12 | -0.01 | +0.14 | -0.29 | -0.17 | -0.01 |
| 2014 | #241 | C.B. Bryant | DEF | -0.20 | -0.08 | +0.15 | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| 2025 | #172 | Chris Paul | DEF | -0.21 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.04 |
| 2014 | #75 | Tre Mason | OFF | -0.20 | -0.07 | -0.67 | -0.05 | +0.67 | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.05 |
| 2015 | #224 | Bryce Hager | DEF | +0.93 | -0.23 | +0.31 | -0.08 | -0.67 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.06 |
| 2013 | #30 | Alec Ogletree | DEF | -0.26 | +0.30 | +0.72 | +0.28 | +0.29 | -0.73 | -0.50 | -0.08 |
| 2023 | #234 | Jason Taylor | DEF | -0.11 | +0.02 | -0.35 | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| 2023 | #182 | Tre'Vius Tomlinson | DEF | -0.03 | -0.06 | -0.34 | +0.03 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| 2025 | #117 | Jarquez Hunter | OFF | -0.15 | +0.10 | -0.23 | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.14 |
| 2013 | #92 | Stedman Bailey | OFF | +0.22 | -0.13 | -0.11 | +0.00 | -0.22 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.15 |
| 2015 | #119 | Andrew Donnal | OFF | -0.18 | -0.34 | +0.28 | -0.23 | +0.13 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.16 |
| 2019 | #243 | Nick Scott | DEF | +0.61 | -0.07 | +0.61 | -0.11 | -0.94 | -0.06 | -0.05 | -0.18 |
| 2015 | #72 | Jamon Brown | OFF | -0.01 | -0.02 | +0.07 | -0.06 | -0.18 | -0.11 | -0.06 | -0.19 |
| 2023 | #128 | Stetson Bennett | OFF | -0.18 | +0.02 | -0.37 | -0.01 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.20 |
| 2023 | #161 | Nick Hampton | DEF | +0.36 | -0.17 | -0.33 | -0.04 | -0.24 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 2023 | #215 | Zach Evans | OFF | -0.11 | +0.05 | -0.44 | -0.04 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 2021 | #130 | Robert Rochell | DEF | -0.14 | -0.30 | -0.29 | -0.20 | +0.21 | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.28 |
| 2020 | #248 | Sam Sloman | ST | -0.40 | +0.12 | -0.88 | +0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.28 |
| 2013 | #149 | Brandon McGee | DEF | -0.15 | -0.21 | -0.24 | -0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| 2021 | #174 | Earnest Brown IV | DEF | -0.22 | -0.07 | -0.35 | -0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| 2018 | #147 | Micah Kiser | DEF | -0.14 | -0.15 | -0.77 | -0.08 | +0.25 | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.30 |
| 2014 | #249 | Michael Sam | DEF | -0.39 | -0.05 | -0.40 | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.30 |
| 2018 | #231 | Travin Howard | DEF | +0.09 | -0.20 | -0.05 | -0.10 | -0.35 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.30 |
| 2018 | #244 | Justin Lawler | DEF | -0.03 | -0.14 | -0.53 | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
| 2025 | #46 | Terrance Ferguson | OFF | -0.22 | -0.24 | -0.44 | +0.00 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.32 |
| 2022 | #235 | Daniel Hardy | DEF | -0.38 | -0.19 | +0.19 | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 2019 | #97 | Bobby Evans | OFF | +0.00 | -0.34 | -0.87 | -0.20 | +0.30 | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.41 |
| 2015 | #227 | Martin Ifedi | DEF | -0.45 | -0.09 | -0.54 | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 2017 | #189 | Tanzel Smart | DEF | -0.21 | -0.44 | -0.62 | -0.30 | +0.35 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.44 |
| 2017 | #125 | Samson Ebukam | DEF | -0.07 | -0.18 | +0.10 | -0.18 | -0.06 | -0.33 | -0.23 | -0.45 |
| 2020 | #57 | Van Jefferson | OFF | -0.01 | -0.02 | -0.25 | -0.15 | -0.22 | -0.25 | -0.11 | -0.47 |
| 2012 | #209 | Aaron Brown | DEF | -0.51 | -0.16 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 2016 | #190 | Josh Forrest | DEF | -0.39 | -0.16 | -0.43 | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.50 |
| 2017 | #234 | Ejuan Price | DEF | -0.46 | -0.13 | -0.61 | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 2020 | #250 | Tremayne Anchrum | OFF | +0.19 | -0.36 | -0.66 | -0.20 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.50 |
| 2020 | #136 | Brycen Hopkins | OFF | +0.13 | -0.41 | -1.38 | -0.03 | +0.21 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.51 |
| 2022 | #104 | Logan Bruss | OFF | -0.35 | -0.31 | -0.25 | -0.20 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.53 |
| 2019 | #251 | Dakota Allen | DEF | -0.60 | -0.25 | +0.00 | -0.24 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.55 |
| 2015 | #201 | Bud Sasser | OFF | -0.49 | -0.14 | -0.66 | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.58 |
| 2014 | #226 | Mitchell Van Dyk | OFF | -0.45 | -0.28 | -0.50 | -0.18 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.60 |
| 2021 | #233 | Jake Funk | OFF | -0.27 | -0.19 | -0.65 | -0.25 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.65 |
| 2016 | #177 | Temarrick Hemingway | OFF | -0.62 | -0.43 | -0.51 | -0.12 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.67 |
| 2018 | #205 | Trevon Young | DEF | -0.51 | -0.19 | -0.91 | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.69 |
| 2012 | #150 | Rokevious Watkins | OFF | -0.53 | -0.37 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.72 |
| 2018 | #89 | Joseph Noteboom | OFF | +0.26 | -0.24 | -1.13 | -0.16 | -0.12 | -0.34 | -0.19 | -0.77 |
| 2012 | #50 | Isaiah Pead | OFF | -0.22 | -0.47 | -0.13 | -0.45 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.78 |
| 2018 | #192 | Jamil Demby | OFF | -0.46 | -0.39 | -0.71 | -0.26 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.80 |
| 2020 | #234 | Clay Johnston | DEF | -0.66 | -0.30 | -0.54 | -0.28 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.80 |
| 2021 | #252 | Chris Garrett | DEF | -0.54 | -0.21 | -1.13 | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.82 |
| 2012 | #33 | Brian Quick | OFF | +0.29 | -0.40 | -0.24 | -0.48 | -0.80 | -0.26 | -0.13 | -0.95 |
| 2016 | #206 | Mike Thomas | OFF | +0.07 | -0.48 | -0.25 | -0.44 | -0.98 | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.98 |
| 2013 | #113 | Barrett Jones | OFF | -0.42 | -0.48 | -0.97 | -0.34 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.99 |
| 2014 | #214 | Garrett Gilbert | OFF | -0.74 | -0.46 | -0.27 | -0.48 | — | -0.05 | -0.01 | -1.00 |
| 2017 | #44 | Gerald Everett | OFF | -0.17 | -0.98 | -0.75 | -0.40 | +0.47 | -0.57 | -0.25 | -1.02 |
| 2021 | #141 | Jacob Harris | OFF | -0.39 | -0.40 | -1.04 | -0.36 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | -1.02 |
| 2017 | #206 | Sam Rogers | OFF | -0.56 | -0.13 | -1.82 | -0.18 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -1.04 |
| 2020 | #84 | Terrell Lewis | DEF | -0.27 | -0.44 | -1.32 | -0.33 | -0.23 | -0.10 | -0.06 | -1.04 |
| 2017 | #117 | Josh Reynolds | OFF | +0.01 | -0.42 | +0.16 | -0.52 | -0.85 | -0.36 | -0.20 | -1.05 |
| 2020 | #52 | Cam Akers | OFF | -0.53 | -0.42 | -1.09 | -0.37 | +0.13 | -0.34 | -0.16 | -1.05 |
| 2016 | #1 | Jared Goff | OFF | -0.21 | -0.26 | -0.17 | -0.31 | -0.46 | -0.28 | -0.67 | -1.07 |
| 2019 | #79 | David Long | DEF | -0.04 | -0.63 | -0.80 | -0.50 | -0.55 | -0.23 | -0.14 | -1.20 |
| 2015 | #89 | Sean Mannion | OFF | -0.59 | -0.55 | -0.94 | -0.49 | — | -0.09 | -0.02 | -1.23 |
| 2014 | #41 | Lamarcus Joyner | DEF | -0.14 | -0.23 | -0.34 | -0.52 | -0.54 | -0.56 | -0.38 | -1.24 |
| 2018 | #176 | John Kelly | OFF | -0.85 | -0.55 | -0.51 | -0.54 | — | -0.12 | -0.07 | -1.28 |
| 2020 | #104 | Terrell Burgess | DEF | -0.32 | -0.58 | -0.96 | -0.44 | -0.78 | -0.12 | -0.07 | -1.32 |
| 2018 | #160 | Ogbonnia Okoronkwo | DEF | -0.45 | -0.81 | -0.80 | -0.60 | -0.64 | -0.12 | -0.06 | -1.40 |
| 2018 | #135 | John Franklin-Myers | DEF | -0.92 | -0.86 | -0.33 | -0.69 | — | -0.15 | -0.07 | -1.51 |
| 2012 | #39 | Jackrabbit Jenkins | DEF | -0.73 | -0.17 | +0.02 | -0.56 | -0.54 | -1.04 | -0.78 | -1.75 |
| 2014 | #2 | Greg Robinson | OFF | -0.27 | -0.59 | +0.07 | -1.25 | -1.79 | -0.46 | -0.33 | -2.17 |
| 2013 | #8 | Tavon Austin | OFF | -0.15 | -0.47 | -0.33 | -0.83 | -0.79 | -1.32 | -0.79 | -2.19 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.