Scott Fitterer
CAR · Composite skill θ = -0.15 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.60 to +1.29
Evidence: 22 mapped picks across 3 draft classes, 2021–2023 · 53% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.43
- maturity discount
- +0.13
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2021–2023CAR
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | #126 | Chuba Hubbard | OFF | +1.46 |
| 2021 | #8 | Jaycee Horn | DEF | +0.70 |
| 2022 | #199 | Cade Mays | OFF | +0.67 |
| 2021 | #83 | Tommy Tremble | OFF | +0.29 |
| 2023 | #114 | Chandler Zavala | OFF | +0.26 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | #193 | Deonte Brown | OFF | -1.17 |
| 2023 | #39 | Jonathan Mingo | OFF | -1.07 |
| 2021 | #222 | Thomas Fletcher | ST | -0.99 |
| 2021 | #158 | Daviyon Nixon | DEF | -0.98 |
| 2022 | #120 | Brandon Smith | DEF | -0.95 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 22 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2021 | #126 | Chuba Hubbard | OFF | +1.07 | +0.86 | +1.45 | +0.86 | -0.06 | -0.10 | -0.05 | +1.46 |
| 2021 | #8 | Jaycee Horn | DEF | -0.08 | +0.13 | -0.16 | -0.26 | +0.16 | +1.81 | -0.23 | +0.70 |
| 2022 | #199 | Cade Mays | OFF | +0.74 | +0.40 | +0.26 | +0.23 | +0.21 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.67 |
| 2021 | #83 | Tommy Tremble | OFF | +0.90 | +0.75 | +0.82 | +0.06 | -0.96 | -0.12 | -0.04 | +0.29 |
| 2023 | #114 | Chandler Zavala | OFF | +0.27 | -0.01 | -0.33 | -0.02 | +0.63 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.26 |
| 2022 | #189 | Amare Barno | DEF | +0.37 | +0.03 | +0.17 | +0.11 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.23 |
| 2021 | #70 | Brady Christensen | OFF | +0.43 | +0.11 | -0.42 | +0.00 | -0.29 | -0.14 | -0.06 | -0.20 |
| 2021 | #166 | Keith Taylor | DEF | +0.09 | -0.22 | +0.33 | -0.09 | -0.37 | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.21 |
| 2023 | #145 | Jammie Robinson | DEF | +0.04 | -0.08 | -0.24 | -0.03 | -0.30 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 2021 | #204 | Shi Smith | OFF | -0.09 | -0.11 | -0.75 | -0.09 | +0.05 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.37 |
| 2022 | #242 | Kalon Barnes | DEF | -0.44 | -0.11 | -0.72 | -0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 2021 | #59 | Terrace Marshall Jr. | OFF | +0.04 | -0.08 | -0.06 | -0.21 | -0.75 | -0.09 | -0.04 | -0.58 |
| 2023 | #1 | Bryce Young | OFF | +0.45 | +0.12 | +0.10 | -0.52 | -0.94 | -0.17 | -0.03 | -0.61 |
| 2022 | #6 | Ikem Ekwonu | OFF | +0.33 | +0.33 | +0.52 | -0.21 | -1.37 | -0.31 | -0.16 | -0.63 |
| 2021 | #232 | Phil Hoskins | DEF | -0.41 | -0.23 | -0.75 | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.67 |
| 2022 | #94 | Matt Corral | OFF | -0.42 | -0.22 | -0.91 | -0.20 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.74 |
| 2023 | #80 | DJ Johnson | DEF | +0.02 | -0.27 | -0.64 | -0.24 | -0.71 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.81 |
| 2022 | #120 | Brandon Smith | DEF | -0.47 | -0.38 | -0.96 | -0.31 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.95 |
| 2021 | #158 | Daviyon Nixon | DEF | -0.40 | -0.35 | -1.37 | -0.24 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.98 |
| 2021 | #222 | Thomas Fletcher | ST | -0.64 | +0.06 | -2.55 | +0.08 | — | -0.03 | -0.03 | -0.99 |
| 2023 | #39 | Jonathan Mingo | OFF | -0.23 | -0.04 | -0.10 | -0.36 | -1.41 | -0.09 | -0.03 | -1.07 |
| 2021 | #193 | Deonte Brown | OFF | -0.62 | -0.50 | -1.17 | -0.38 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.17 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.