Tom Donahoe
PIT · Composite skill θ = +0.49 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.19 to +1.17
Composite θ
+0.49
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-0.19–+1.17
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
92%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Elite
maturity-adjusted direction probability > 80%
Evidence: 81 mapped picks across 9 draft classes, 1991–1999 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.06
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1991–1999PITDirector of Football Operations; de facto GM; left for BUF GM role 2001
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | #26 | Alan Faneca | OFF | +13.20 |
| 1998 | #92 | Hines Ward | OFF | +7.63 |
| 1994 | #88 | Jason Gildon | DEF | +6.78 |
| 1999 | #109 | Aaron Smith | DEF | +4.49 |
| 1999 | #73 | Joey Porter | DEF | +4.41 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1993 | #185 | Jeff Zgonina | DEF | -5.57 |
| 1997 | #91 | Mike Vrabel | DEF | -4.42 |
| 1995 | #27 | Mark Bruener | OFF | -3.03 |
| 1993 | #44 | Chad Brown | DEF | -2.98 |
| 1991 | #46 | Jeff Graham | OFF | -2.51 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 81 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1998 | #26 | Alan Faneca | OFF | +1.22 | +1.86 | — | +2.66 | — | +6.18 | +11.83 | +13.20 |
| 1998 | #92 | Hines Ward | OFF | +2.72 | +3.30 | — | +3.07 | — | +3.64 | -0.54 | +7.63 |
| 1994 | #88 | Jason Gildon | DEF | +1.90 | +2.06 | — | +2.36 | — | +2.97 | +1.90 | +6.78 |
| 1999 | #109 | Aaron Smith | DEF | +1.64 | +2.53 | — | +2.13 | — | +0.76 | -0.21 | +4.49 |
| 1999 | #73 | Joey Porter | DEF | +0.51 | +1.02 | — | +1.59 | — | +2.58 | +1.54 | +4.41 |
| 1992 | #38 | Levon Kirkland | DEF | +1.35 | +1.71 | — | +1.95 | — | -0.66 | +1.67 | +3.99 |
| 1992 | #67 | Joel Steed | DEF | +1.54 | +2.00 | — | +1.65 | — | -0.09 | -0.04 | +3.36 |
| 1993 | #108 | Kevin Henry | DEF | +1.73 | +1.56 | — | +1.40 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +3.00 |
| 1995 | #60 | Kordell Stewart | OFF | +1.12 | +0.92 | — | +1.55 | — | +0.83 | -0.05 | +2.96 |
| 1995 | #151 | Lee Flowers | DEF | +1.71 | +1.49 | — | +1.20 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | +2.76 |
| 1996 | #126 | Earl Holmes | DEF | +0.38 | +1.08 | — | +0.78 | — | -0.14 | -0.12 | +1.38 |
| 1998 | #117 | Deshea Townsend | DEF | +2.21 | +0.53 | — | +0.36 | — | -0.36 | -0.34 | +1.38 |
| 1995 | #91 | Brenden Stai | OFF | +0.47 | +0.69 | — | +0.43 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | +0.94 |
| 1996 | #92 | Jon Witman | OFF | +1.29 | +0.86 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.88 |
| 1991 | #158 | Leroy Thompson | OFF | +0.42 | +0.06 | — | +0.31 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.53 |
| 1994 | #140 | Myron Bell | DEF | +0.90 | -0.01 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.05 | -0.04 | +0.53 |
| 1995 | #247 | Cole Ford | ST | -0.23 | +0.43 | — | +0.41 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.51 |
| 1997 | #24 | Chad Scott | DEF | +0.30 | +0.78 | — | +0.37 | — | -0.48 | -0.37 | +0.49 |
| 1999 | #95 | Amos Zereoue | OFF | +0.64 | -0.19 | — | +0.32 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | +0.49 |
| 1991 | #103 | Adrian Cooper | OFF | +0.33 | +0.31 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.38 |
| 1995 | #125 | Donta Jones | DEF | +0.79 | -0.11 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.35 |
| 1996 | #203 | Spence Fischer | OFF | +0.04 | +0.24 | — | +0.19 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.33 |
| 1999 | #136 | Jerame Tuman | OFF | +1.38 | +0.53 | — | -0.53 | — | -0.14 | -0.08 | +0.31 |
| 1993 | #189 | Craig Keith | OFF | +0.04 | +0.00 | — | +0.24 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.25 |
| 1998 | #178 | Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | OFF | +0.53 | -0.12 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.18 |
| 1994 | #180 | Eric Ravotti | DEF | +0.13 | +0.01 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.13 |
| 1997 | #154 | George Jones | OFF | -0.02 | +0.05 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.09 |
| 1992 | #179 | Russ Campbell | OFF | -0.23 | -0.05 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| 1997 | #53 | Will Blackwell | OFF | +0.46 | -0.34 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.05 |
| 1997 | #223 | Mike Adams | OFF | -0.10 | +0.09 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| 1998 | #221 | Angel Rubio | DEF | -0.25 | +0.09 | — | +0.11 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| 1994 | #91 | Bam Morris | OFF | -0.10 | -0.06 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.02 |
| 1995 | #235 | Henry Bailey | OFF | -0.23 | +0.10 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| 1999 | #214 | Antonio Dingle | DEF | -0.26 | +0.08 | — | +0.10 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| 1997 | #199 | Rod Manuel | DEF | -0.22 | +0.06 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| 1992 | #94 | Charles Davenport | OFF | +0.37 | -0.18 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 1995 | #199 | Barron Miles | DEF | -0.30 | +0.03 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.05 |
| 1999 | #166 | Malcolm Johnson | OFF | -0.11 | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.08 |
| 1994 | #209 | Brice Abrams | OFF | -0.31 | +0.11 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.08 |
| 1991 | #73 | Ernie Mills | OFF | +0.64 | -0.28 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.19 | -0.10 | -0.09 |
| 1997 | #186 | Daryl Porter | DEF | -0.33 | +0.01 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| 1996 | #163 | Israel Raybon | DEF | -0.29 | +0.00 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.11 |
| 1993 | #23 | Deon Figures | DEF | +0.40 | -0.23 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.08 | -0.05 | -0.12 |
| 1999 | #219 | Chad Kelsay | DEF | -0.20 | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 1996 | #132 | Jahine Arnold | OFF | -0.14 | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.14 |
| 1991 | #88 | Sammy Walker | DEF | -0.15 | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| 1994 | #122 | Ta'ase Faumui | DEF | -0.26 | -0.10 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.23 |
| 1999 | #59 | Scott Shields | DEF | -0.04 | -0.32 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.24 |
| 1993 | #76 | Andre Hastings | OFF | +0.10 | -0.31 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.11 | -0.06 | -0.27 |
| 1994 | #17 | Charles Johnson | OFF | +0.11 | +0.11 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.47 | -0.26 | -0.28 |
| 1998 | #186 | Ryan Olson | DEF | -0.41 | -0.06 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| 1992 | #123 | Alan Haller | DEF | -0.38 | -0.13 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.32 |
| 1991 | #185 | Andre Jones | DEF | -0.43 | -0.08 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 1998 | #123 | Carlos King | OFF | -0.46 | -0.06 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 1995 | #161 | Lance Brown | DEF | +0.00 | -0.38 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.38 |
| 1993 | #140 | Marc Woodard | DEF | -0.51 | -0.16 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 1994 | #148 | Gary Brown | OFF | -0.42 | -0.24 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 1992 | #188 | Scottie Graham | OFF | -0.55 | -0.10 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.52 |
| 1996 | #72 | Steve Conley | DEF | -0.22 | -0.35 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.53 |
| 1998 | #66 | Chris Conrad | OFF | -0.24 | -0.40 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.53 |
| 1996 | #242 | Carlos Emmons | DEF | -0.35 | -0.27 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.09 | -0.09 | -0.74 |
| 1998 | #41 | Jeremy Staat | DEF | -0.24 | -0.59 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.81 |
| 1997 | #82 | Paul Wiggins | OFF | -0.57 | -0.44 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.82 |
| 1995 | #120 | Oliver Gibson | DEF | +0.17 | -0.83 | — | -0.51 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.90 |
| 1999 | #74 | Kris Farris | OFF | -0.62 | -0.48 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.90 |
| 1992 | #11 | Leon Searcy | OFF | -0.07 | -0.31 | — | -0.53 | — | -0.36 | -0.22 | -1.01 |
| 1994 | #178 | Jim Miller | OFF | -0.72 | -0.51 | — | -0.53 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -1.16 |
| 1993 | #162 | Willie Williams | DEF | -0.12 | -0.44 | — | -0.66 | — | -0.25 | -0.25 | -1.19 |
| 1993 | #135 | Lonnie Palelei | OFF | -0.75 | -0.63 | — | -0.50 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.22 |
| 1996 | #29 | Jamain Stephens | OFF | -0.57 | -0.66 | — | -0.59 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | -1.27 |
| 1999 | #13 | Troy Edwards | OFF | -0.22 | -1.01 | — | -0.65 | — | -0.21 | -0.12 | -1.42 |
| 1996 | #200 | Orpheus Roye | DEF | -0.41 | -0.76 | — | -0.77 | — | -0.16 | -0.11 | -1.49 |
| 1999 | #228 | Kris Brown | ST | -0.61 | -0.93 | — | -0.64 | — | -0.13 | -0.15 | -1.55 |
| 1998 | #137 | Jason Simmons | DEF | -0.29 | -1.01 | — | -0.82 | — | -0.11 | -0.10 | -1.57 |
| 1991 | #15 | Huey Richardson | DEF | -0.91 | -0.91 | — | -0.88 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -1.85 |
| 1994 | #50 | Brentson Buckner | DEF | -1.15 | -0.77 | — | -0.92 | — | -0.52 | -0.27 | -2.27 |
| 1991 | #46 | Jeff Graham | OFF | -1.00 | -0.94 | — | -1.07 | — | -0.61 | -0.34 | -2.51 |
| 1993 | #44 | Chad Brown | DEF | -1.53 | -1.18 | — | -1.04 | — | -1.75 | +0.59 | -2.98 |
| 1995 | #27 | Mark Bruener | OFF | +0.14 | +0.55 | — | -1.84 | — | -1.92 | -1.16 | -3.03 |
| 1997 | #91 | Mike Vrabel | DEF | -1.40 | -2.06 | — | -1.99 | — | -0.72 | -0.67 | -4.42 |
| 1993 | #185 | Jeff Zgonina | DEF | -2.59 | -2.42 | — | -2.69 | — | -0.40 | -0.33 | -5.57 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.