Mike Tannenbaum
NYJ · Composite skill θ = +0.41 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.15 to +0.98
Evidence: 41 mapped picks across 7 draft classes, 2006–2012 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.18
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2006–2012NYJ
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | #14 | Darrelle Revis | DEF | +5.89 |
| 2006 | #29 | Nick Mangold | OFF | +5.78 |
| 2011 | #30 | Muhammad Wilkerson | DEF | +2.52 |
| 2007 | #47 | David Harris | DEF | +1.80 |
| 2012 | #242 | Antonio Allen | DEF | +1.46 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | #49 | Kellen Clemens | OFF | -3.26 |
| 2012 | #77 | Demario Davis | DEF | -2.46 |
| 2010 | #61 | Vlad Ducasse | OFF | -1.99 |
| 2009 | #5 | Mark Sanchez | OFF | -1.66 |
| 2008 | #6 | Vernon Gholston | DEF | -1.41 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 41 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2007 | #14 | Darrelle Revis | DEF | +0.34 | +0.96 | -0.63 | +1.86 | +0.87 | +3.15 | +5.43 | +5.89 |
| 2006 | #29 | Nick Mangold | OFF | +1.81 | +2.57 | -0.35 | +2.12 | -0.34 | +3.42 | +3.66 | +5.78 |
| 2011 | #30 | Muhammad Wilkerson | DEF | +1.00 | +1.57 | +1.54 | +1.73 | +0.98 | -0.28 | -0.13 | +2.52 |
| 2007 | #47 | David Harris | DEF | +1.59 | +2.36 | +0.78 | +2.21 | -0.46 | -0.73 | -0.57 | +1.80 |
| 2012 | #242 | Antonio Allen | DEF | +0.84 | +0.46 | +1.31 | +0.41 | +0.79 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.46 |
| 2006 | #117 | Leon Washington | OFF | -0.04 | -0.49 | — | +0.21 | — | +0.92 | +2.04 | +1.43 |
| 2008 | #30 | Dustin Keller | OFF | +0.80 | +0.61 | — | +0.67 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | +1.33 |
| 2006 | #97 | Eric Smith | DEF | +1.34 | +0.39 | — | +0.40 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | +1.22 |
| 2006 | #4 | D'Brickashaw Ferguson | OFF | +1.75 | +2.14 | -0.08 | +0.87 | -1.96 | +1.92 | -1.08 | +1.15 |
| 2011 | #94 | Kenrick Ellis | DEF | +0.48 | -0.17 | +0.47 | +0.22 | +0.97 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.84 |
| 2006 | #189 | Drew Coleman | DEF | +1.06 | +0.04 | — | +0.27 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.81 |
| 2009 | #65 | Shonn Greene | OFF | +0.53 | +0.32 | — | +0.39 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | +0.74 |
| 2011 | #126 | Bilal Powell | OFF | +1.22 | +0.16 | +1.03 | +0.38 | -0.65 | -0.23 | -0.14 | +0.48 |
| 2012 | #16 | Quinton Coples | DEF | +0.30 | -0.03 | +0.52 | -0.04 | +0.49 | -0.09 | -0.04 | +0.43 |
| 2007 | #235 | Chansi Stuckey | OFF | +0.17 | +0.18 | — | +0.24 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.41 |
| 2010 | #139 | John Conner | OFF | +0.59 | +0.24 | +0.86 | -0.16 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.38 |
| 2011 | #153 | Jeremy Kerley | OFF | +0.88 | +0.03 | +0.55 | +0.26 | -0.43 | -0.09 | -0.06 | +0.34 |
| 2011 | #208 | Greg McElroy | OFF | -0.03 | +0.15 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 |
| 2012 | #187 | Josh Bush | DEF | +0.38 | -0.12 | +0.67 | +0.04 | -0.40 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.12 |
| 2010 | #112 | Joe McKnight | OFF | +0.33 | -0.16 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.10 |
| 2008 | #162 | Erik Ainge | OFF | -0.12 | +0.09 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| 2006 | #103 | Brad Smith | OFF | +0.78 | -0.29 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.10 | -0.02 | -0.01 |
| 2006 | #220 | Titus Adams | DEF | -0.30 | +0.04 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.06 |
| 2006 | #150 | Jason Pociask | OFF | -0.40 | -0.15 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 2012 | #244 | Jordan White | OFF | -0.28 | -0.02 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| 2011 | #227 | Scotty McKnight | OFF | -0.36 | -0.03 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 2008 | #171 | Marcus Henry | OFF | -0.42 | -0.07 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
| 2012 | #202 | Terrance Ganaway | OFF | -0.46 | -0.03 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 2007 | #177 | Jacob Bender | OFF | -0.37 | -0.25 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| 2009 | #193 | Matt Slauson | OFF | -0.22 | +0.16 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.13 | -0.10 | -0.49 |
| 2012 | #203 | Robert Griffin | OFF | -0.45 | -0.28 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.54 |
| 2008 | #113 | Dwight Lowery | DEF | -0.35 | -0.45 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.14 | -0.11 | -0.85 |
| 2012 | #43 | Stephen Hill | OFF | -0.32 | -0.07 | +0.45 | -0.36 | -1.33 | -0.07 | -0.03 | -0.87 |
| 2006 | #76 | Anthony Schlegel | DEF | -0.64 | -0.41 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.88 |
| 2010 | #29 | Kyle Wilson | DEF | +0.81 | -0.12 | +0.06 | -0.09 | -2.11 | -0.12 | -0.08 | -0.95 |
| 2008 | #211 | Nate Garner | OFF | -0.76 | -0.55 | — | -0.44 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -1.12 |
| 2008 | #6 | Vernon Gholston | DEF | +0.02 | -0.97 | — | -0.86 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | -1.41 |
| 2009 | #5 | Mark Sanchez | OFF | -0.32 | -0.20 | — | -0.82 | — | -0.95 | -0.22 | -1.66 |
| 2010 | #61 | Vlad Ducasse | OFF | -0.39 | -1.23 | -0.41 | -1.04 | — | -0.34 | -0.20 | -1.99 |
| 2012 | #77 | Demario Davis | DEF | -0.88 | -0.40 | +0.43 | -0.80 | -0.35 | -1.70 | -1.51 | -2.46 |
| 2006 | #49 | Kellen Clemens | OFF | -1.34 | -1.37 | — | -1.56 | — | -0.57 | -0.12 | -3.26 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.