Kwesi Adofo-Mensah
MIN · Composite skill θ = -0.03 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.66 to +1.61
Evidence: 28 mapped picks across 4 draft classes, 2022–2025 · 34% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.44
- maturity discount
- +0.05
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2022–2025MIN
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | #203 | Will Reichard | ST | +2.47 |
| 2022 | #191 | Jalen Nailor | OFF | +0.55 |
| 2024 | #232 | Levi Drake Rodriguez | DEF | +0.51 |
| 2023 | #134 | Jay Ward | DEF | +0.49 |
| 2023 | #23 | Jordan Addison | OFF | +0.48 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | #10 | J.J. McCarthy | OFF | -1.36 |
| 2022 | #32 | Lewis Cine | DEF | -1.24 |
| 2022 | #66 | Brian Asamoah | DEF | -1.17 |
| 2025 | #24 | Donovan Jackson | OFF | -0.89 |
| 2024 | #17 | Dallas Turner | DEF | -0.79 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 28 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2024 | #203 | Will Reichard | ST | +0.51 | +0.42 | +1.06 | +0.73 | — | -0.01 | +2.14 | +2.47 |
| 2022 | #191 | Jalen Nailor | OFF | +0.82 | +0.28 | +0.44 | +0.23 | -0.13 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.55 |
| 2024 | #232 | Levi Drake Rodriguez | DEF | +0.29 | +0.22 | +0.62 | +0.26 | +0.01 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.51 |
| 2023 | #134 | Jay Ward | DEF | +0.72 | -0.02 | -0.13 | +0.17 | +0.47 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.49 |
| 2023 | #23 | Jordan Addison | OFF | +0.20 | +0.39 | +0.44 | +0.20 | +0.23 | -0.12 | -0.05 | +0.48 |
| 2025 | #139 | Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins | DEF | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.36 | +0.16 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.38 |
| 2025 | #202 | Gavin Bartholomew | OFF | -0.12 | +0.17 | +0.06 | +0.34 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.38 |
| 2022 | #59 | Ed Ingram | OFF | +0.27 | +0.38 | +0.41 | +0.15 | -0.12 | -0.10 | -0.04 | +0.29 |
| 2024 | #230 | Michael Jurgens | OFF | +0.27 | +0.04 | +0.33 | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.27 |
| 2022 | #118 | Akayleb Evans | DEF | +0.09 | +0.14 | -0.19 | +0.03 | +0.49 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.24 |
| 2023 | #141 | Jaquelin Roy | DEF | +0.00 | +0.06 | +0.27 | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 |
| 2025 | #201 | Kobe King | DEF | -0.04 | +0.14 | +0.20 | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.15 |
| 2022 | #227 | Nick Muse | OFF | +0.06 | -0.01 | -0.34 | +0.23 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.13 |
| 2023 | #164 | Jaren Hall | OFF | -0.02 | +0.16 | -0.15 | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 |
| 2025 | #102 | Tai Felton | OFF | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.05 | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.01 |
| 2022 | #169 | Ty Chandler | OFF | +0.38 | -0.04 | -0.20 | +0.06 | -0.20 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.05 |
| 2024 | #177 | Walter Rouse | OFF | -0.07 | -0.13 | -0.05 | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| 2023 | #102 | Mekhi Blackmon | DEF | -0.22 | -0.17 | -0.10 | -0.08 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.26 |
| 2023 | #222 | DeWayne McBride | OFF | -0.34 | +0.06 | -0.48 | -0.04 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 2022 | #165 | Esezi Otomewo | DEF | -0.44 | -0.20 | +0.05 | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 2024 | #108 | Khyree Jackson | DEF | -0.42 | -0.11 | -0.60 | -0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| 2022 | #184 | Vederian Lowe | OFF | -0.45 | -0.37 | +0.14 | -0.27 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.52 |
| 2022 | #42 | Andrew Booth | DEF | -0.22 | -0.47 | -0.68 | -0.34 | -0.03 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.68 |
| 2024 | #17 | Dallas Turner | DEF | -0.11 | -0.53 | -0.37 | -0.41 | -0.38 | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.79 |
| 2025 | #24 | Donovan Jackson | OFF | -0.31 | -0.30 | -0.19 | -0.41 | -0.78 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.89 |
| 2022 | #66 | Brian Asamoah | DEF | +0.18 | -0.61 | -0.74 | -0.40 | -1.02 | -0.09 | -0.05 | -1.17 |
| 2022 | #32 | Lewis Cine | DEF | -0.59 | -0.62 | -0.80 | -0.52 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -1.24 |
| 2024 | #10 | J.J. McCarthy | OFF | -0.32 | -0.41 | -0.54 | -0.60 | -1.22 | -0.06 | -0.01 | -1.36 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.