Ran Carthon
TEN · Composite skill θ = -0.02 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.70 to +1.65
Evidence: 13 mapped picks across 2 draft classes, 2023–2024 · 31% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.10
- maturity discount
- +0.06
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2023–2024TEN
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | #146 | Jarvis Brownlee | DEF | +0.80 |
| 2024 | #252 | Jaylen Harrell | DEF | +0.48 |
| 2024 | #182 | Jha'Quan Jackson | OFF | +0.45 |
| 2023 | #186 | Jaelyn Duncan | OFF | +0.44 |
| 2024 | #38 | T'Vondre Sweat | DEF | +0.44 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | #7 | JC Latham | OFF | -1.61 |
| 2023 | #11 | Peter Skoronski | OFF | -1.03 |
| 2023 | #228 | Colton Dowell | OFF | -0.11 |
| 2024 | #106 | Cedric Gray | DEF | -0.06 |
| 2023 | #81 | Tyjae Spears | OFF | +0.19 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 13 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2024 | #146 | Jarvis Brownlee | DEF | +0.14 | +0.44 | +0.41 | +0.28 | +0.68 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.80 |
| 2024 | #252 | Jaylen Harrell | DEF | +0.71 | +0.24 | +0.97 | +0.28 | -0.61 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.48 |
| 2024 | #182 | Jha'Quan Jackson | OFF | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.53 | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.45 |
| 2023 | #186 | Jaelyn Duncan | OFF | +0.15 | +0.14 | +0.39 | +0.09 | +0.35 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.44 |
| 2024 | #38 | T'Vondre Sweat | DEF | +0.03 | +0.33 | -0.01 | +0.08 | +0.60 | -0.04 | -0.01 | +0.44 |
| 2023 | #33 | Will Levis | OFF | +0.16 | +0.29 | +0.25 | +0.16 | +0.26 | -0.03 | +0.00 | +0.42 |
| 2023 | #147 | Josh Whyle | OFF | +0.17 | +0.02 | -0.10 | +0.23 | +0.56 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.41 |
| 2024 | #242 | James Williams | ST | +0.56 | +0.21 | +0.62 | +0.27 | -0.46 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.35 |
| 2023 | #81 | Tyjae Spears | OFF | +0.35 | -0.18 | +0.20 | +0.26 | -0.05 | -0.06 | -0.02 | +0.19 |
| 2024 | #106 | Cedric Gray | DEF | +0.05 | +0.26 | +0.17 | +0.07 | -0.47 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.06 |
| 2023 | #228 | Colton Dowell | OFF | -0.05 | +0.05 | -0.25 | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 2023 | #11 | Peter Skoronski | OFF | +0.13 | +0.17 | +0.28 | -0.38 | -1.83 | -0.16 | -0.07 | -1.03 |
| 2024 | #7 | JC Latham | OFF | -0.20 | -0.32 | -0.05 | -0.66 | -2.02 | -0.11 | -0.05 | -1.61 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.