Tom Flores/Behring
SEA · Composite skill θ = -0.17 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.94 to +0.60
Evidence: 29 mapped picks across 5 draft classes, 1989–1993 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.07
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1989–1993SEAPost-McCormack era; Tom Flores as President/GM 1989-94
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | #3 | Cortez Kennedy | DEF | +9.47 |
| 1991 | #155 | Michael Sinclair | DEF | +3.06 |
| 1990 | #89 | Chris Warren | OFF | +3.00 |
| 1990 | #34 | Robert Blackmon | DEF | +1.64 |
| 1990 | #29 | Terry Wooden | DEF | +1.08 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 | #98 | John Kasay | ST | -8.51 |
| 1989 | #15 | Andy Heck | OFF | -3.02 |
| 1992 | #150 | Michael Bates | OFF | -2.98 |
| 1993 | #2 | Rick Mirer | OFF | -2.55 |
| 1992 | #10 | Ray Roberts | OFF | -1.97 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 29 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1990 | #3 | Cortez Kennedy | DEF | +1.74 | +1.93 | — | +2.71 | — | +4.19 | +5.64 | +9.47 |
| 1991 | #155 | Michael Sinclair | DEF | +1.58 | +1.79 | — | +1.51 | — | -0.18 | -0.10 | +3.06 |
| 1990 | #89 | Chris Warren | OFF | +1.10 | +1.15 | — | +1.13 | — | +1.74 | -0.27 | +3.00 |
| 1990 | #34 | Robert Blackmon | DEF | +0.92 | +1.35 | — | +0.76 | — | -0.29 | -0.20 | +1.64 |
| 1990 | #29 | Terry Wooden | DEF | +0.39 | +0.97 | — | +0.72 | — | -0.38 | -0.25 | +1.08 |
| 1989 | #101 | Travis McNeal | OFF | +0.55 | +0.41 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.68 |
| 1993 | #85 | Dean Wells | DEF | +0.55 | +0.33 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.15 | -0.11 | +0.35 |
| 1990 | #119 | Eric Hayes | DEF | +0.02 | -0.05 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| 1992 | #178 | Mike Frier | DEF | -0.30 | +0.01 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.09 |
| 1989 | #184 | Mike Nettles | DEF | -0.37 | -0.02 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| 1993 | #114 | Terrence Warren | OFF | -0.10 | -0.13 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 1991 | #74 | David Daniels | OFF | +0.08 | -0.26 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 1991 | #128 | Harlan Davis | DEF | -0.47 | -0.12 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.36 |
| 1992 | #122 | Gary Dandridge | DEF | -0.48 | -0.13 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 1993 | #30 | Carlton Gray | DEF | -0.16 | +0.10 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.19 | -0.13 | -0.38 |
| 1990 | #146 | Ned Bolcar | DEF | -0.40 | -0.16 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 1991 | #51 | Doug Thomas | OFF | +0.23 | -0.31 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.41 |
| 1990 | #175 | Bob Kula | OFF | -0.39 | -0.21 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 1989 | #103 | James Henry | DEF | -0.56 | -0.21 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.52 |
| 1992 | #66 | Bob Spitulski | DEF | -0.11 | -0.39 | — | -0.27 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.54 |
| 1989 | #71 | Elroy Harris | OFF | -0.34 | -0.27 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.64 |
| 1993 | #170 | Michael McCrary | DEF | +0.01 | -0.56 | — | -0.47 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.81 |
| 1989 | #44 | Joe Tofflemire | OFF | -0.19 | -0.41 | — | -0.48 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.83 |
| 1991 | #16 | Dan McGwire | OFF | -0.32 | -0.49 | — | -0.55 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.98 |
| 1992 | #10 | Ray Roberts | OFF | -0.44 | -0.58 | — | -0.99 | — | -0.58 | -0.37 | -1.97 |
| 1993 | #2 | Rick Mirer | OFF | -0.62 | -0.74 | — | -1.19 | — | -1.08 | -0.29 | -2.55 |
| 1992 | #150 | Michael Bates | OFF | -1.19 | -1.30 | — | -1.45 | — | -0.33 | -0.23 | -2.98 |
| 1989 | #15 | Andy Heck | OFF | -0.62 | -0.43 | — | -1.12 | — | -1.67 | -1.09 | -3.02 |
| 1991 | #98 | John Kasay | ST | -2.92 | -3.34 | — | -3.52 | — | -1.48 | -2.23 | -8.51 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.