Sam Jankovich
NE · Composite skill θ = -0.20 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.99 to +0.60
Evidence: 35 mapped picks across 4 draft classes, 1990–1993 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.44
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1990–1993NENamed CEO Dec 1990 with complete organizational control
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 | #124 | Ben Coates | OFF | +5.72 |
| 1993 | #31 | Chris Slade | DEF | +2.56 |
| 1993 | #51 | Todd Rucci | OFF | +1.87 |
| 1992 | #116 | Dwayne Sabb | DEF | +1.33 |
| 1990 | #80 | Greg McMurtry | OFF | +0.99 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | #10 | Ray Agnew | DEF | -2.83 |
| 1990 | #8 | Chris Singleton | DEF | -1.76 |
| 1991 | #41 | Jerome Henderson | DEF | -1.31 |
| 1992 | #93 | Darren Anderson | DEF | -1.27 |
| 1993 | #138 | Rich Griffith | OFF | -1.25 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 35 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1991 | #124 | Ben Coates | OFF | +1.87 | +1.81 | — | +1.31 | — | +0.93 | +4.21 | +5.72 |
| 1993 | #31 | Chris Slade | DEF | +1.35 | +1.59 | — | +1.37 | — | -0.34 | -0.23 | +2.56 |
| 1993 | #51 | Todd Rucci | OFF | +0.94 | +1.12 | — | +0.91 | — | -0.10 | -0.05 | +1.87 |
| 1992 | #116 | Dwayne Sabb | DEF | +1.21 | +0.44 | — | +0.51 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.33 |
| 1990 | #80 | Greg McMurtry | OFF | +0.80 | +0.84 | — | +0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.99 |
| 1993 | #56 | Vincent Brisby | OFF | +0.72 | +0.33 | — | +0.32 | — | -0.15 | -0.08 | +0.74 |
| 1991 | #112 | Jon Vaughn | OFF | +0.24 | +0.09 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.26 |
| 1992 | #64 | Todd Collins | DEF | +0.27 | +0.31 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.20 | -0.14 | +0.20 |
| 1993 | #113 | Scott Sisson | ST | -0.19 | +0.17 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.19 |
| 1992 | #90 | Dion Lambert | DEF | +0.15 | -0.13 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.03 |
| 1992 | #194 | Jim Gray | DEF | -0.31 | +0.04 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.07 |
| 1990 | #59 | Tom Hodson | OFF | +0.21 | -0.04 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| 1992 | #176 | Wayne Hawkins | OFF | -0.35 | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 1993 | #110 | Corwin Brown | DEF | +0.36 | -0.31 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.06 | -0.05 | -0.20 |
| 1990 | #110 | Junior Robinson | DEF | -0.14 | -0.18 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.22 |
| 1991 | #140 | David Key | DEF | -0.37 | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.26 |
| 1993 | #142 | Lawrence Hatch | DEF | -0.43 | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 1991 | #168 | Blake Miller | OFF | -0.39 | -0.22 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 1992 | #165 | Tracy Boyd | OFF | -0.39 | -0.22 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 1990 | #120 | James Gray | OFF | -0.52 | -0.09 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| 1991 | #14 | Leonard Russell | OFF | -0.13 | +0.14 | — | -0.35 | — | -0.16 | -0.08 | -0.47 |
| 1990 | #113 | Jon Melander | OFF | -0.29 | -0.27 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 1993 | #86 | Kevin Johnson | DEF | -0.57 | -0.22 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.56 |
| 1991 | #11 | Pat Harlow | OFF | +0.19 | +0.13 | — | -0.45 | — | -0.37 | -0.22 | -0.59 |
| 1992 | #71 | Kevin Turner | OFF | -0.10 | -0.26 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.15 | -0.08 | -0.67 |
| 1992 | #35 | Rod Smith | DEF | -0.04 | -0.44 | — | -0.35 | — | -0.11 | -0.07 | -0.68 |
| 1991 | #84 | Scott Zolak | OFF | +0.21 | -0.60 | — | -0.63 | — | -0.10 | -0.02 | -0.88 |
| 1993 | #1 | Drew Bledsoe | OFF | +0.39 | +0.61 | — | +0.61 | — | -3.00 | -1.02 | -0.90 |
| 1991 | #56 | Calvin Stephens | OFF | -0.40 | -0.56 | — | -0.40 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.90 |
| 1992 | #13 | Eugene Chung | OFF | -0.34 | -0.40 | — | -0.63 | — | -0.13 | -0.07 | -1.10 |
| 1993 | #138 | Rich Griffith | OFF | -1.02 | -0.67 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -1.25 |
| 1992 | #93 | Darren Anderson | DEF | -0.94 | -0.58 | — | -0.47 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.27 |
| 1991 | #41 | Jerome Henderson | DEF | -0.42 | -0.77 | — | -0.58 | — | -0.16 | -0.11 | -1.31 |
| 1990 | #8 | Chris Singleton | DEF | -0.51 | -0.72 | — | -0.92 | — | -0.26 | -0.18 | -1.76 |
| 1990 | #10 | Ray Agnew | DEF | -0.67 | -1.01 | — | -1.26 | — | -0.96 | -0.50 | -2.83 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.