Rod Graves
CHI · Composite skill θ = -0.61 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.46 to +0.24
Evidence: 22 mapped picks across 3 draft classes, 1994–1996 · 100% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.34
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1994–1996CHIDirector of Pro Personnel; Wannstedt era
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | #152 | Chris Villarrial | OFF | +1.87 |
| 1994 | #74 | Jim Flanigan | DEF | +1.84 |
| 1995 | #83 | Sean Harris | DEF | +0.91 |
| 1995 | #198 | Carl Reeves | DEF | +0.75 |
| 1994 | #114 | Raymont Harris | OFF | +0.65 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | #39 | Marcus Spears | OFF | -4.03 |
| 1996 | #52 | Bobby Engram | OFF | -3.42 |
| 1995 | #56 | Todd Sauerbrun | ST | -3.32 |
| 1996 | #13 | Walt Harris | DEF | -2.79 |
| 1994 | #11 | John Thierry | DEF | -1.56 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 22 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1996 | #152 | Chris Villarrial | OFF | +1.13 | +1.67 | — | +0.62 | — | -0.17 | -0.13 | +1.87 |
| 1994 | #74 | Jim Flanigan | DEF | +0.97 | +1.24 | — | +0.87 | — | -0.18 | -0.09 | +1.84 |
| 1995 | #83 | Sean Harris | DEF | +0.92 | +0.37 | — | +0.31 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | +0.91 |
| 1995 | #198 | Carl Reeves | DEF | +0.46 | +0.33 | — | +0.35 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.75 |
| 1994 | #114 | Raymont Harris | OFF | +0.11 | +0.53 | — | +0.37 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.65 |
| 1996 | #253 | Michael Hicks | OFF | -0.06 | +0.17 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 |
| 1996 | #233 | Marcus Keyes | DEF | -0.18 | +0.11 | — | +0.12 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 |
| 1994 | #205 | Dennis Collier | DEF | -0.30 | +0.04 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.05 |
| 1995 | #193 | Kenny Gales | DEF | -0.31 | +0.02 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| 1995 | #229 | Jamal Cox | DEF | -0.33 | +0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.17 |
| 1994 | #170 | Lloyd Hill | OFF | -0.35 | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 1995 | #116 | Jack Jackson | OFF | -0.18 | -0.12 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 1995 | #21 | Rashaan Salaam | OFF | -0.15 | -0.10 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.29 |
| 1996 | #187 | Jon Clark | OFF | -0.28 | -0.16 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 1995 | #87 | Evan Pilgrim | OFF | -0.31 | -0.43 | — | -0.31 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.71 |
| 1995 | #52 | Pat Riley | DEF | -0.67 | -0.39 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.85 |
| 1996 | #116 | Paul Grasmanis | DEF | -0.42 | -0.93 | — | -0.78 | — | -0.11 | -0.06 | -1.55 |
| 1994 | #11 | John Thierry | DEF | -0.01 | -0.84 | — | -0.84 | — | -0.39 | -0.19 | -1.56 |
| 1996 | #13 | Walt Harris | DEF | -0.59 | -0.08 | — | -0.81 | — | -1.72 | -1.56 | -2.79 |
| 1995 | #56 | Todd Sauerbrun | ST | -0.85 | -1.61 | — | -1.30 | — | -0.82 | -0.77 | -3.32 |
| 1996 | #52 | Bobby Engram | OFF | -1.18 | -0.89 | — | -1.36 | — | -1.23 | -0.84 | -3.42 |
| 1994 | #39 | Marcus Spears | OFF | -1.84 | -1.82 | — | -1.69 | — | -0.62 | -0.39 | -4.03 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.