Bill Bidwill
ARI · Composite skill θ = -0.86 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.54 to -0.18
Composite θ
-0.86
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-1.54–-0.18
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
1%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Terrible
interval excludes zero
Evidence: 105 mapped picks across 14 draft classes, 1980–1993 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.59
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1980–1993ARIOwner ran Cardinals (St. Louis 80-87, Phoenix 88-93); diffuse leadership; defensible owner-as-GM attribution
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 | #59 | Aeneas Williams | DEF | +6.43 |
| 1981 | #33 | Neil Lomax | OFF | +5.08 |
| 1982 | #16 | Luis Sharpe | OFF | +2.76 |
| 1990 | #169 | Johnny Johnson | OFF | +2.11 |
| 1992 | #100 | Michael Bankston | DEF | +2.10 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1993 | #3 | Garrison Hearst | OFF | -6.96 |
| 1988 | #68 | Tom Tupa | OFF | -5.65 |
| 1990 | #58 | Ricky Proehl | OFF | -4.99 |
| 1984 | #101 | Martin Bayless | DEF | -4.52 |
| 1983 | #103 | Lionel Washington | DEF | -4.19 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 105 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1991 | #59 | Aeneas Williams | DEF | +1.19 | +2.26 | — | +2.39 | — | +1.19 | +3.45 | +6.43 |
| 1981 | #33 | Neil Lomax | OFF | +1.37 | +1.75 | — | +2.56 | — | +1.95 | -0.03 | +5.08 |
| 1982 | #16 | Luis Sharpe | OFF | +1.76 | +2.59 | — | +1.65 | — | -0.11 | -2.01 | +2.76 |
| 1990 | #169 | Johnny Johnson | OFF | +0.59 | +1.00 | — | +0.78 | — | +1.08 | -0.01 | +2.11 |
| 1992 | #100 | Michael Bankston | DEF | +0.97 | +1.37 | — | +1.00 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | +2.10 |
| 1988 | #179 | Ernie Jones | OFF | +1.20 | +0.86 | — | +1.02 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +2.04 |
| 1982 | #125 | Earl Ferrell | OFF | +1.44 | +1.37 | — | +0.73 | — | -0.15 | -0.07 | +2.03 |
| 1987 | #90 | Rod Saddler | DEF | +0.92 | +1.08 | — | +0.78 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.77 |
| 1985 | #72 | Lance Smith | OFF | +1.16 | +1.69 | — | +0.86 | — | -0.76 | -0.45 | +1.68 |
| 1989 | #94 | Jim Wahler | DEF | +0.61 | +1.03 | — | +0.64 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.45 |
| 1980 | #81 | Charles Baker | DEF | +1.18 | +0.72 | — | +0.55 | — | -0.21 | -0.12 | +1.34 |
| 1982 | #90 | Tootie Robbins | OFF | +0.98 | +1.50 | — | +0.66 | — | -0.76 | -0.44 | +1.30 |
| 1982 | #65 | Benny Perrin | DEF | +0.37 | +0.85 | — | +0.65 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +1.23 |
| 1983 | #96 | Mark Duda | DEF | +0.68 | +0.66 | — | +0.48 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.14 |
| 1990 | #115 | Larry Centers | OFF | +0.52 | -0.01 | — | -0.10 | — | +0.27 | +1.55 | +1.07 |
| 1992 | #61 | Ed Cunningham | OFF | +0.52 | +0.67 | — | +0.47 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +1.05 |
| 1980 | #33 | Doug Marsh | OFF | +0.80 | +1.38 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.28 | -0.10 | +0.94 |
| 1992 | #175 | Derek Ware | OFF | +0.71 | +0.30 | — | +0.26 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.75 |
| 1986 | #89 | Carl Carter | DEF | +0.34 | +0.66 | — | +0.29 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | +0.74 |
| 1982 | #38 | David Galloway | DEF | +0.43 | +0.76 | — | +0.30 | — | -0.37 | -0.14 | +0.64 |
| 1989 | #150 | Jay Taylor | DEF | +0.53 | +0.27 | — | +0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.55 |
| 1991 | #6 | Eric Swann | DEF | +0.60 | +0.35 | — | +0.07 | — | +0.35 | -0.41 | +0.52 |
| 1993 | #87 | Ronald Moore | OFF | +0.13 | +0.45 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.40 |
| 1985 | #18 | Freddie Joe Nunn | DEF | +0.68 | +1.26 | — | +0.31 | — | -1.37 | -0.64 | +0.27 |
| 1983 | #184 | Carlos Scott | OFF | +0.63 | -0.24 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.16 |
| 1980 | #6 | Curtis Greer | DEF | +0.49 | +0.43 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.63 | -0.26 | +0.13 |
| 1989 | #10 | Eric Hill | DEF | +0.85 | +1.38 | — | +0.23 | — | -1.39 | -1.07 | +0.12 |
| 1987 | #195 | William Harris | OFF | -0.18 | +0.02 | — | +0.19 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.10 |
| 1987 | #62 | Robert Awalt | OFF | -0.10 | +0.28 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.10 | -0.04 | +0.07 |
| 1988 | #132 | Tony Jordan | OFF | +0.02 | +0.20 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.05 |
| 1991 | #86 | Dexter Davis | DEF | +0.21 | -0.18 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.02 |
| 1991 | #171 | Ivory Lee Brown | OFF | -0.23 | +0.17 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.01 |
| 1987 | #126 | John Bruno | ST | -0.53 | +0.16 | — | +0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.00 |
| 1987 | #146 | Mark Garalczyk | DEF | -0.05 | -0.01 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 1983 | #44 | Cedric Mack | DEF | +0.69 | +0.63 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.80 | -0.51 | -0.07 |
| 1984 | #136 | John Goode | OFF | -0.20 | -0.19 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.14 |
| 1987 | #127 | Ilia Jarostchuk | DEF | +0.08 | -0.21 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.15 |
| 1993 | #172 | Will White | DEF | -0.36 | -0.02 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.16 |
| 1983 | #157 | George Schmitt | DEF | -0.12 | -0.14 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| 1989 | #177 | Ricky Royal | DEF | -0.38 | -0.03 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| 1980 | #89 | Rusty Lisch | OFF | +0.14 | -0.16 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.03 | +0.00 | -0.22 |
| 1986 | #170 | Eric Swanson | OFF | -0.20 | -0.06 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.22 |
| 1987 | #34 | Tim McDonald | DEF | -0.67 | -0.05 | — | -0.31 | — | +1.91 | -1.03 | -0.23 |
| 1987 | #174 | Tim Peoples | DEF | -0.41 | -0.06 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 1985 | #104 | Ron Wolfley | OFF | +0.65 | -1.06 | — | -1.33 | — | +2.79 | -0.28 | -0.28 |
| 1989 | #40 | Walter Reeves | OFF | +0.46 | +0.63 | — | -0.70 | — | -0.21 | -0.09 | -0.31 |
| 1984 | #185 | Quentin Walker | OFF | -0.38 | -0.01 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
| 1983 | #130 | Steve Bird | OFF | -0.02 | -0.19 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.32 |
| 1993 | #143 | Brett Wallerstedt | DEF | -0.34 | -0.15 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 1990 | #142 | Tyrone Shavers | OFF | -0.43 | -0.08 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 1984 | #80 | Rick McIvor | OFF | -0.22 | -0.16 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.36 |
| 1989 | #128 | David Edeen | DEF | -0.48 | -0.11 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.37 |
| 1981 | #61 | Jeff Griffin | DEF | -0.06 | -0.26 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.13 | -0.07 | -0.38 |
| 1982 | #150 | Craig Shaffer | DEF | -0.19 | -0.25 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 1991 | #117 | Vance Hammond | DEF | -0.49 | -0.13 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.39 |
| 1985 | #116 | K.D. Dunn | OFF | -0.62 | -0.26 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 1981 | #171 | Kevin Donnalley | DEF | -0.52 | -0.15 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.44 |
| 1983 | #71 | Ramsey Dardar | DEF | -0.35 | -0.22 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 1986 | #116 | Jeff Tupper | DEF | -0.55 | -0.18 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 1992 | #146 | Brian Brauninger | OFF | -0.43 | -0.26 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 1991 | #144 | Eduardo Vega | OFF | -0.44 | -0.27 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.52 |
| 1987 | #118 | George Swarn | OFF | -0.56 | -0.12 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.53 |
| 1981 | #116 | John Gillen | DEF | -0.24 | -0.35 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.56 |
| 1988 | #148 | Jon Phillips | OFF | -0.46 | -0.28 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.56 |
| 1987 | #70 | Colin Scotts | DEF | -0.51 | -0.26 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.58 |
| 1984 | #157 | Rod Clark | DEF | -0.57 | -0.20 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.59 |
| 1992 | #46 | Tony Sacca | OFF | -0.37 | -0.27 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.59 |
| 1986 | #5 | Anthony Bell | DEF | +0.27 | +0.08 | — | -0.47 | — | -0.36 | -0.25 | -0.60 |
| 1990 | #85 | Travis Davis | DEF | -0.59 | -0.24 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.60 |
| 1993 | #18 | Ernest Dye | OFF | -0.03 | -0.32 | — | -0.39 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.61 |
| 1989 | #17 | Joe Wolf | OFF | +0.49 | -0.06 | — | -0.42 | — | -0.52 | -0.30 | -0.62 |
| 1989 | #123 | Richard Tardits | DEF | -0.58 | -0.23 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.62 |
| 1982 | #119 | Vance Bedford | DEF | -0.62 | -0.25 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.63 |
| 1982 | #178 | Bob Sebro | OFF | -0.49 | -0.30 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.63 |
| 1988 | #120 | Chris Gaines | DEF | -0.60 | -0.24 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.64 |
| 1990 | #31 | Anthony Thompson | OFF | -0.14 | -0.36 | — | -0.35 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | -0.65 |
| 1980 | #171 | Ben Apuna | DEF | -0.62 | -0.24 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.69 |
| 1985 | #131 | Louis Wong | OFF | -0.54 | -0.35 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.71 |
| 1984 | #129 | Jeff Leiding | DEF | -0.64 | -0.27 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.72 |
| 1986 | #32 | John Lee | ST | -0.63 | -0.32 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.78 |
| 1983 | #17 | Leonard Smith | DEF | +0.03 | +0.08 | — | -0.36 | — | -0.64 | -0.39 | -0.82 |
| 1981 | #88 | Steve Rhodes | OFF | -0.71 | -0.35 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.90 |
| 1985 | #51 | Scott Bergold | OFF | -0.42 | -0.68 | — | -0.49 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -1.07 |
| 1981 | #143 | Dave Ahrens | DEF | -0.32 | -0.54 | — | -0.52 | — | -0.25 | -0.16 | -1.15 |
| 1988 | #38 | Tony Jeffery | OFF | -0.77 | -0.50 | — | -0.52 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -1.20 |
| 1980 | #142 | Bill Acker | DEF | -0.62 | -0.63 | — | -0.57 | — | -0.08 | -0.03 | -1.25 |
| 1986 | #59 | Gene Chilton | OFF | -0.50 | -0.77 | — | -0.64 | — | -0.11 | -0.06 | -1.36 |
| 1980 | #60 | John Sinnott | OFF | -0.86 | -0.70 | — | -0.57 | — | -0.06 | -0.02 | -1.39 |
| 1985 | #158 | Jay Novacek | OFF | -0.27 | -1.11 | — | -0.63 | — | -0.24 | -0.13 | -1.50 |
| 1982 | #73 | Rusty Guilbeau | DEF | -1.04 | -0.66 | — | -0.61 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -1.52 |
| 1984 | #17 | Clyde Duncan | OFF | -0.55 | -0.86 | — | -0.84 | — | -0.10 | -0.04 | -1.61 |
| 1991 | #32 | Mike Jones | DEF | -0.50 | -0.80 | — | -0.83 | — | -0.25 | -0.11 | -1.66 |
| 1988 | #95 | Michael Brim | DEF | -1.11 | -0.78 | — | -0.69 | — | -0.09 | -0.06 | -1.71 |
| 1987 | #6 | Kelly Stouffer | OFF | -0.94 | -1.09 | — | -1.18 | — | -0.12 | -0.02 | -2.26 |
| 1988 | #12 | Ken Harvey | DEF | -0.18 | -0.35 | — | -0.81 | — | -1.36 | -1.01 | -2.27 |
| 1989 | #67 | Mike Zandofsky | OFF | -1.15 | -1.10 | — | -1.00 | — | -0.22 | -0.12 | -2.29 |
| 1993 | #32 | Ben Coleman | OFF | -0.92 | -1.14 | — | -1.09 | — | -0.33 | -0.19 | -2.38 |
| 1984 | #45 | Doug Dawson | OFF | -1.35 | -1.36 | — | -1.38 | — | -0.86 | -0.47 | -3.39 |
| 1992 | #91 | Jeff Christy | OFF | -1.85 | -1.54 | — | -1.47 | — | -0.32 | -0.21 | -3.43 |
| 1981 | #5 | E.J. Junior | DEF | -0.32 | +0.11 | — | -0.37 | — | -5.31 | -2.06 | -4.16 |
| 1983 | #103 | Lionel Washington | DEF | -1.63 | -1.24 | — | -1.72 | — | -1.13 | -0.93 | -4.19 |
| 1984 | #101 | Martin Bayless | DEF | -2.31 | -1.82 | — | -1.88 | — | -0.66 | -0.50 | -4.52 |
| 1990 | #58 | Ricky Proehl | OFF | -1.53 | -1.03 | — | -1.78 | — | -2.20 | -1.66 | -4.99 |
| 1988 | #68 | Tom Tupa | OFF | -2.12 | -2.26 | — | -2.69 | — | -1.24 | -0.30 | -5.65 |
| 1993 | #3 | Garrison Hearst | OFF | -1.82 | -1.90 | — | -2.36 | — | -3.00 | -2.47 | -6.96 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.