Mike Holmgren
SEA · Composite skill θ = +0.22 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.53 to +0.97
Evidence: 47 mapped picks across 5 draft classes, 2000–2004 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.18
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2000–2004SEAHC + de facto GM
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | #19 | Shaun Alexander | OFF | +5.37 |
| 2000 | #80 | Darrell Jackson | OFF | +2.70 |
| 2003 | #11 | Marcus Trufant | DEF | +2.05 |
| 2001 | #17 | Steve Hutchinson | OFF | +1.91 |
| 2004 | #84 | Sean Locklear | OFF | +1.37 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | #224 | Donnie Jones | ST | -4.28 |
| 2003 | #73 | Wayne Hunter | OFF | -3.07 |
| 2001 | #82 | Heath Evans | OFF | -1.99 |
| 2003 | #222 | Josh Brown | ST | -1.96 |
| 2001 | #222 | Dennis Norman | OFF | -1.77 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 47 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2000 | #19 | Shaun Alexander | OFF | +1.14 | +1.24 | — | +1.92 | — | +2.71 | +1.81 | +5.37 |
| 2000 | #80 | Darrell Jackson | OFF | +0.92 | +1.48 | — | +1.63 | — | -0.17 | -0.10 | +2.70 |
| 2003 | #11 | Marcus Trufant | DEF | +1.26 | +1.61 | — | +0.77 | — | +0.33 | -0.63 | +2.05 |
| 2001 | #17 | Steve Hutchinson | OFF | -0.79 | -0.42 | — | -0.04 | — | +1.85 | +3.27 | +1.91 |
| 2004 | #84 | Sean Locklear | OFF | +0.91 | +0.97 | — | +0.57 | — | -0.18 | -0.11 | +1.37 |
| 2003 | #183 | Rashad Moore | DEF | +0.39 | +0.51 | — | +0.49 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.93 |
| 2004 | #157 | D.J. Hackett | OFF | +0.40 | +0.33 | — | +0.52 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.88 |
| 2000 | #119 | Isaiah Kacyvenski | DEF | +1.22 | +0.05 | — | +0.19 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.78 |
| 2002 | #169 | Ryan Hannam | OFF | +0.84 | +0.06 | — | +0.30 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.74 |
| 2004 | #53 | Michael Boulware | DEF | +0.43 | +0.33 | — | +0.39 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.74 |
| 2004 | #189 | Craig Terrill | DEF | +1.40 | -0.20 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.73 |
| 2002 | #146 | Rocky Bernard | DEF | +0.81 | +0.32 | — | +0.26 | — | -0.14 | -0.08 | +0.71 |
| 2000 | #190 | John Hilliard | DEF | +0.34 | +0.34 | — | +0.34 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.68 |
| 2001 | #140 | Alex Bannister | OFF | +0.77 | -0.13 | — | -0.18 | — | +1.07 | -0.01 | +0.67 |
| 2001 | #104 | Orlando Huff | DEF | +0.53 | +0.20 | — | +0.20 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.54 |
| 2000 | #175 | James Williams | OFF | +0.37 | +0.12 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.41 |
| 2000 | #116 | Marcus Bell | DEF | +0.52 | +0.03 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.40 |
| 2002 | #120 | Terreal Bierria | DEF | +0.22 | +0.19 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.40 |
| 2002 | #232 | Jeff Kelly | OFF | +0.07 | +0.26 | — | +0.21 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.38 |
| 2002 | #194 | Craig Jarrett | ST | -0.33 | +0.34 | — | +0.35 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.34 |
| 2001 | #128 | Floyd Womack | OFF | +0.69 | +0.08 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.15 | -0.11 | +0.27 |
| 2001 | #172 | Josh Booty | OFF | -0.03 | +0.17 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.22 |
| 2001 | #210 | Harold Blackmon | DEF | -0.07 | +0.04 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.11 |
| 2003 | #42 | Ken Hamlin | DEF | -0.07 | +0.39 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.16 | -0.12 | +0.11 |
| 2001 | #127 | Curtis Fuller | DEF | +0.17 | -0.07 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.10 |
| 2002 | #171 | Matt Hill | OFF | +0.25 | -0.16 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.07 |
| 2001 | #237 | Kris Kocurek | DEF | -0.23 | +0.10 | — | +0.12 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| 2001 | #40 | Ken Lucas | DEF | +0.29 | +0.23 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.25 | -0.18 | +0.01 |
| 2003 | #224 | Taco Wallace | OFF | -0.19 | +0.07 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.02 |
| 2002 | #85 | Kris Richard | DEF | +0.33 | -0.24 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| 2000 | #185 | Tim Watson | DEF | -0.32 | +0.03 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.07 |
| 2003 | #135 | Solomon Bates | DEF | -0.12 | -0.10 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| 2003 | #165 | Chris Davis | OFF | -0.38 | +0.02 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.23 |
| 2001 | #9 | Koren Robinson | OFF | +0.08 | +0.28 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.40 | -0.24 | -0.24 |
| 2000 | #52 | Ike Charlton | DEF | +0.04 | -0.39 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.37 |
| 2002 | #60 | Anton Palepoi | DEF | -0.16 | -0.33 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 2004 | #23 | Marcus Tubbs | DEF | -0.18 | -0.25 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.46 |
| 2002 | #54 | Maurice Morris | OFF | +0.68 | -0.64 | — | -0.39 | — | -0.47 | -0.29 | -0.75 |
| 2000 | #22 | Chris McIntosh | OFF | -0.31 | -0.53 | — | -0.39 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.85 |
| 2002 | #28 | Jerramy Stevens | OFF | +0.00 | -0.69 | — | -0.47 | — | -0.39 | -0.20 | -1.10 |
| 2003 | #110 | Seneca Wallace | OFF | -0.30 | -0.72 | — | -0.64 | — | -0.17 | -0.04 | -1.25 |
| 2004 | #116 | Niko Koutouvides | DEF | +0.01 | -0.92 | — | -0.71 | — | -0.12 | -0.10 | -1.27 |
| 2001 | #222 | Dennis Norman | OFF | -1.08 | -0.85 | — | -0.77 | — | -0.05 | -0.04 | -1.77 |
| 2003 | #222 | Josh Brown | ST | -0.35 | -1.39 | — | -0.80 | — | -0.25 | -0.33 | -1.96 |
| 2001 | #82 | Heath Evans | OFF | -0.18 | -1.10 | — | -1.09 | — | -0.32 | -0.20 | -1.99 |
| 2003 | #73 | Wayne Hunter | OFF | -1.64 | -1.43 | — | -1.30 | — | -0.29 | -0.19 | -3.07 |
| 2004 | #224 | Donnie Jones | ST | -2.40 | -1.62 | — | -1.88 | — | -0.33 | -0.45 | -4.28 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.