Phil Savage
CLE · Composite skill θ = +0.41 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.19 to +1.01
Evidence: 30 mapped picks across 4 draft classes, 2005–2008 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.56
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2005–2008CLE
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | #3 | Joe Thomas | OFF | +10.36 |
| 2008 | #190 | Ahtyba Rubin | DEF | +1.47 |
| 2007 | #140 | Brandon McDonald | DEF | +0.80 |
| 2007 | #53 | Eric Wright | DEF | +0.76 |
| 2005 | #34 | Brodney Pool | DEF | +0.53 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | #22 | Brady Quinn | OFF | -1.07 |
| 2006 | #34 | D'Qwell Jackson | DEF | -1.03 |
| 2006 | #13 | Kamerion Wimbley | DEF | -0.82 |
| 2008 | #104 | Beau Bell | DEF | -0.73 |
| 2006 | #78 | Travis Wilson | OFF | -0.69 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 30 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2007 | #3 | Joe Thomas | OFF | +1.69 | +2.08 | -0.15 | +2.06 | -0.22 | +5.46 | +11.00 | +10.36 |
| 2008 | #190 | Ahtyba Rubin | DEF | +1.00 | +1.13 | +0.47 | +0.73 | +0.62 | -0.09 | -0.05 | +1.47 |
| 2007 | #140 | Brandon McDonald | DEF | +0.48 | +0.43 | — | +0.36 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.80 |
| 2007 | #53 | Eric Wright | DEF | +0.27 | +0.70 | — | +0.37 | — | -0.10 | -0.07 | +0.76 |
| 2005 | #34 | Brodney Pool | DEF | +0.48 | +0.40 | — | +0.20 | — | -0.13 | -0.09 | +0.53 |
| 2006 | #180 | Lawrence Vickers | OFF | +1.04 | +0.66 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.53 |
| 2006 | #145 | Jerome Harrison | OFF | +0.56 | +0.02 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.48 |
| 2005 | #67 | Charlie Frye | OFF | +0.16 | +0.35 | — | +0.16 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | +0.41 |
| 2008 | #231 | Alex Hall | DEF | +0.32 | -0.01 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.22 |
| 2007 | #234 | Syndric Steptoe | OFF | +0.10 | +0.18 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.20 |
| 2005 | #139 | David McMillan | DEF | +0.25 | -0.10 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.12 |
| 2006 | #222 | Justin Hamilton | OFF | -0.09 | +0.08 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.04 |
| 2005 | #203 | Andrew Hoffman | DEF | -0.32 | +0.03 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.09 |
| 2007 | #213 | Chase Pittman | DEF | -0.33 | +0.02 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.11 |
| 2007 | #200 | Melila Purcell | DEF | -0.35 | +0.00 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.15 |
| 2006 | #181 | Babatunde Oshinowo | DEF | -0.35 | -0.02 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.16 |
| 2005 | #176 | Nick Speegle | DEF | -0.08 | -0.12 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.16 |
| 2008 | #191 | Paul Hubbard | OFF | -0.38 | -0.03 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 2006 | #152 | DeMario Minter | DEF | -0.45 | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 2005 | #217 | Jon Dunn | OFF | -0.32 | -0.16 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.32 |
| 2008 | #111 | Martin Rucker | OFF | -0.50 | -0.24 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 2006 | #110 | Leon Williams | DEF | +0.09 | -0.30 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.38 |
| 2005 | #103 | Antonio Perkins | DEF | -0.41 | -0.22 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 2006 | #112 | Isaac Sowells | OFF | -0.14 | -0.38 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 2005 | #3 | Braylon Edwards | OFF | -0.15 | -0.14 | — | -0.58 | — | +0.50 | -0.43 | -0.69 |
| 2006 | #78 | Travis Wilson | OFF | -0.54 | -0.28 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.69 |
| 2008 | #104 | Beau Bell | DEF | -0.55 | -0.33 | — | -0.27 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.73 |
| 2006 | #13 | Kamerion Wimbley | DEF | -0.28 | +0.10 | — | -0.38 | — | -0.46 | -0.24 | -0.82 |
| 2006 | #34 | D'Qwell Jackson | DEF | +0.15 | +0.85 | -0.62 | +0.40 | -1.18 | -0.87 | -0.67 | -1.03 |
| 2007 | #22 | Brady Quinn | OFF | -0.47 | -0.41 | — | -0.58 | — | -0.08 | -0.01 | -1.07 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.