Al Davis
LV · Composite skill θ = -0.29 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.76 to +0.17
Composite θ
-0.29
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-0.76–+0.17
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
11%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Bad
maturity-adjusted direction probability > 80%
Evidence: 216 mapped picks across 32 draft classes, 1980–2011 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.19
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1980–1993LVManaging General Partner/Owner; de facto GM; OAK 1980-81, LA 1982-93
- 1994–2011LVDavis owner-GM until death; covers Oakland era
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1981 | #48 | Howie Long | DEF | +10.47 |
| 2000 | #142 | Shane Lechler | ST | +8.20 |
| 2003 | #31 | Nnamdi Asomugha | DEF | +5.18 |
| 1995 | #49 | Barret Robbins | OFF | +4.37 |
| 1988 | #9 | Terry McDaniel | DEF | +3.35 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | #17 | Sebastian Janikowski | ST | -7.92 |
| 1998 | #4 | Charles Woodson | DEF | -6.17 |
| 1987 | #110 | Steve Beuerlein | OFF | -5.18 |
| 2011 | #125 | Taiwan Jones | OFF | -3.98 |
| 1985 | #23 | Jessie Hester | OFF | -3.69 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 216 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1981 | #48 | Howie Long | DEF | +1.72 | +2.09 | — | +3.04 | — | +7.36 | +3.69 | +10.47 |
| 2000 | #142 | Shane Lechler | ST | +1.51 | -2.45 | — | -0.61 | — | +6.83 | +11.72 | +8.20 |
| 2003 | #31 | Nnamdi Asomugha | DEF | +0.85 | +1.00 | — | +1.08 | — | +2.60 | +3.76 | +5.18 |
| 1995 | #49 | Barret Robbins | OFF | +1.38 | +1.57 | — | +1.47 | — | +0.85 | +2.01 | +4.37 |
| 1988 | #9 | Terry McDaniel | DEF | +1.16 | +1.67 | — | +1.44 | — | +2.00 | -1.00 | +3.35 |
| 1983 | #26 | Don Mosebar | OFF | +1.70 | +2.06 | — | +1.14 | — | +1.45 | -1.03 | +3.23 |
| 1993 | #181 | Greg Biekert | DEF | +1.79 | +2.21 | — | +1.33 | — | -0.14 | -0.12 | +3.20 |
| 1982 | #64 | Vann McElroy | DEF | +0.83 | +1.25 | — | +1.05 | — | +1.89 | -0.17 | +2.95 |
| 1987 | #183 | Bo Jackson | OFF | +0.51 | +0.66 | — | +0.99 | — | +1.08 | -0.01 | +2.11 |
| 1997 | #2 | Darrell Russell | DEF | +0.43 | +0.25 | — | +0.27 | — | +0.87 | +2.01 | +2.05 |
| 1984 | #168 | Stacey Toran | DEF | +1.28 | +1.03 | — | +0.87 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +2.01 |
| 1983 | #138 | Dokie Williams | OFF | +1.25 | +0.89 | — | +0.92 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.98 |
| 1983 | #110 | Greg Townsend | DEF | +1.35 | +0.27 | — | +0.62 | — | +1.30 | -0.49 | +1.84 |
| 1995 | #18 | Napoleon Kaufman | OFF | +1.08 | +0.40 | — | +0.98 | — | -0.14 | -0.07 | +1.62 |
| 2005 | #78 | Kirk Morrison | DEF | +0.61 | +1.26 | — | +0.77 | — | -0.13 | -0.09 | +1.60 |
| 1992 | #128 | Derrick Hoskins | DEF | +0.99 | +0.94 | — | +0.62 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.57 |
| 2011 | #148 | Denarius Moore | OFF | +0.72 | +0.86 | +1.01 | +0.56 | +0.48 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.37 |
| 2002 | #235 | Ronald Curry | OFF | +1.20 | +0.62 | — | +0.47 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.36 |
| 1980 | #173 | Malcolm Barnwell | OFF | +0.66 | +0.85 | — | +0.59 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.32 |
| 2004 | #67 | Stuart Schweigert | DEF | +0.86 | +0.80 | — | +0.46 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.27 |
| 2004 | #245 | Courtney Anderson | OFF | +0.64 | +0.80 | — | +0.55 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +1.26 |
| 1992 | #16 | Chester McGlockton | DEF | -0.25 | +0.10 | — | +0.51 | — | +0.05 | +1.59 | +1.25 |
| 1983 | #54 | Bill Pickel | DEF | +0.62 | +0.07 | — | +0.31 | — | -0.80 | +1.80 | +1.16 |
| 2003 | #96 | Justin Fargas | OFF | +1.25 | +0.37 | — | +0.39 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | +1.14 |
| 1998 | #23 | Mo Collins | OFF | +0.65 | +0.73 | — | +0.51 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | +1.13 |
| 1980 | #43 | Matt Millen | DEF | +0.70 | +1.48 | — | +0.85 | — | -0.62 | -1.04 | +1.11 |
| 2000 | #47 | Jerry Porter | OFF | +1.00 | +0.55 | — | +0.41 | — | -0.26 | -0.15 | +0.99 |
| 2001 | #89 | DeLawrence Grant | DEF | +0.63 | +0.53 | — | +0.39 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.96 |
| 1987 | #81 | Steve Smith | OFF | +1.00 | +1.35 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.26 | -0.14 | +0.93 |
| 2008 | #226 | Chaz Schilens | OFF | +0.75 | +0.54 | — | +0.27 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.91 |
| 2003 | #167 | Doug Gabriel | OFF | +0.72 | +0.17 | — | +0.46 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.89 |
| 2007 | #91 | Mario Henderson | DEF | +0.46 | +0.52 | — | +0.31 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.79 |
| 2007 | #38 | Zach Miller | OFF | +0.01 | +0.53 | — | +0.11 | — | +0.83 | -0.12 | +0.74 |
| 1988 | #6 | Tim Brown | OFF | +1.99 | +1.95 | — | +2.26 | — | -0.73 | -6.25 | +0.74 |
| 1991 | #146 | Nolan Harrison | DEF | +0.52 | +0.55 | — | +0.26 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | +0.72 |
| 1997 | #72 | Adam Treu | OFF | +2.08 | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.26 | -0.17 | +0.72 |
| 1998 | #152 | Travian Smith | DEF | +1.16 | -0.03 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.71 |
| 2010 | #108 | Jacoby Ford | OFF | +0.32 | +0.11 | +0.79 | +0.31 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.70 |
| 2005 | #38 | Stanford Routt | DEF | +1.24 | +0.37 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.19 | -0.14 | +0.65 |
| 2007 | #99 | Johnnie Lee Higgins | OFF | +0.87 | +0.07 | — | +0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.64 |
| 1986 | #85 | Mike Wise | DEF | +0.38 | +0.29 | — | +0.32 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.63 |
| 1986 | #103 | Vance Mueller | OFF | +1.16 | -0.04 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.62 |
| 1998 | #127 | Jeremy Brigham | OFF | +0.64 | +0.07 | — | +0.28 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.62 |
| 2006 | #7 | Michael Huff | DEF | +0.96 | +0.96 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.43 | -0.35 | +0.62 |
| 2006 | #214 | Chris Morris | OFF | +0.80 | +0.13 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.60 |
| 2007 | #100 | Michael Bush | OFF | +0.47 | -0.01 | — | +0.42 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | +0.58 |
| 2011 | #241 | David Ausberry | OFF | +0.48 | -0.01 | +1.22 | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.57 |
| 2002 | #55 | Doug Jolley | OFF | +0.39 | +0.24 | — | +0.27 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.56 |
| 1998 | #63 | Jon Ritchie | OFF | +0.75 | +0.69 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.10 | -0.06 | +0.48 |
| 1988 | #25 | Scott Davis | DEF | +0.53 | +0.27 | — | +0.16 | — | -0.13 | -0.05 | +0.47 |
| 2000 | #227 | Mondriel Fulcher | OFF | +0.30 | +0.06 | — | +0.29 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.46 |
| 2009 | #71 | Matt Shaughnessy | DEF | +0.34 | +0.26 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.45 |
| 2004 | #45 | Jake Grove | OFF | +0.34 | +0.42 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | +0.39 |
| 1990 | #173 | Garry Lewis | DEF | +0.30 | +0.16 | — | +0.16 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.38 |
| 2008 | #169 | Trevor Scott | DEF | +0.58 | +0.02 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.37 |
| 2006 | #38 | Thomas Howard | DEF | +0.33 | +0.53 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.24 | -0.16 | +0.36 |
| 2001 | #184 | Chris Cooper | DEF | +0.32 | -0.02 | — | +0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.30 |
| 1987 | #52 | Bruce Wilkerson | OFF | +0.54 | +0.70 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.64 | -0.37 | +0.27 |
| 2007 | #138 | Jay Richardson | DEF | +0.29 | +0.14 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.27 |
| 1981 | #111 | Johnny Robinson | DEF | +0.01 | +0.18 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.26 |
| 1999 | #40 | Tony Bryant | DEF | +0.06 | +0.27 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | +0.26 |
| 2009 | #202 | Brandon Myers | OFF | +0.36 | +0.15 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.23 |
| 2001 | #28 | Derrick Gibson | DEF | +0.63 | +0.08 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.07 | -0.05 | +0.23 |
| 2003 | #83 | Sam Williams | DEF | +0.84 | -0.12 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | +0.22 |
| 1992 | #185 | Kevin Smith | OFF | -0.05 | -0.01 | — | +0.23 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 |
| 2007 | #254 | Jonathan Holland | OFF | +0.15 | +0.06 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 |
| 1998 | #230 | Vincent Amey | DEF | -0.14 | +0.13 | — | +0.17 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.17 |
| 2011 | #181 | Richard Gordon | OFF | +0.15 | -0.10 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.14 |
| 2005 | #212 | Ryan Riddle | DEF | -0.01 | +0.04 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.13 |
| 2010 | #251 | Stevie Brown | DEF | +0.04 | +0.03 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.13 |
| 1996 | #183 | Tim Hall | OFF | +0.09 | +0.07 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.12 |
| 2005 | #175 | Anttaj Hawthorne | DEF | +0.06 | -0.02 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 |
| 2003 | #246 | Siddeeq Shabazz | DEF | -0.15 | +0.08 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 |
| 1990 | #11 | Anthony Smith | DEF | +0.78 | -0.06 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.27 | -0.13 | +0.07 |
| 1995 | #118 | Mike Morton | DEF | +0.37 | -0.09 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.07 |
| 1998 | #235 | David Sanders | DEF | -0.23 | +0.11 | — | +0.13 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| 1988 | #171 | Derrick Crudup | DEF | +0.08 | -0.05 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.05 |
| 2001 | #228 | Derek Combs | DEF | -0.16 | +0.07 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| 1989 | #140 | Jeff Francis | OFF | -0.13 | +0.09 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| 2000 | #231 | Clifton Black | DEF | -0.25 | +0.07 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| 2003 | #262 | Ryan Hoag | OFF | -0.21 | +0.11 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| 1999 | #224 | JoJuan Armour | DEF | -0.26 | +0.07 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| 1981 | #118 | James Davis | DEF | +0.97 | -0.57 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | +0.01 |
| 2010 | #44 | Lamarr Houston | DEF | +0.11 | +0.57 | +0.25 | +0.21 | -0.59 | -0.20 | -0.09 | -0.03 |
| 2001 | #229 | Ken-Yon Rambo | OFF | -0.25 | +0.09 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.03 |
| 2006 | #255 | Kevin McMahan | OFF | -0.25 | +0.08 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.04 |
| 1988 | #131 | Dennis Price | DEF | -0.08 | -0.03 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 2005 | #69 | Andrew Walter | OFF | +0.02 | +0.09 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.05 |
| 2007 | #175 | Oren O'Neal | OFF | +0.01 | +0.02 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 1993 | #125 | Olanda Truitt | OFF | +0.13 | -0.10 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 1999 | #153 | Roderick Coleman | DEF | +0.25 | -0.17 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.05 |
| 2002 | #53 | Langston Walker | OFF | +0.59 | +0.05 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.25 | -0.15 | -0.05 |
| 2010 | #215 | Jeremy Ware | DEF | -0.19 | -0.04 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| 1999 | #188 | Daren Yancey | DEF | -0.31 | +0.04 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.07 |
| 2002 | #189 | Keyon Nash | DEF | -0.29 | +0.00 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.08 |
| 1984 | #127 | Andy Parker | OFF | +0.71 | -0.29 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.13 |
| 2002 | #197 | Larry Ned | OFF | -0.34 | +0.08 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 1992 | #173 | Curtis Cotton | DEF | -0.37 | -0.02 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.16 |
| 1996 | #248 | Joey Wylie | OFF | -0.23 | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.16 |
| 1996 | #57 | Lance Johnstone | DEF | +0.17 | +0.10 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.33 | -0.17 | -0.17 |
| 2004 | #134 | Johnnie Morant | OFF | -0.09 | -0.05 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| 2004 | #255 | Andre Sommersell | DEF | -0.32 | +0.01 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| 1995 | #86 | Joe Aska | OFF | -0.03 | -0.12 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| 1996 | #220 | Sedric Clark | DEF | -0.35 | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| 2001 | #158 | Ray Perryman | DEF | -0.39 | -0.05 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| 2004 | #166 | Shawn Johnson | DEF | -0.38 | -0.03 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.20 |
| 2009 | #199 | Stryker Sulak | DEF | -0.38 | -0.03 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.20 |
| 2003 | #63 | Teyo Johnson | OFF | -0.14 | -0.25 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 1996 | #224 | Darius Smith | OFF | -0.27 | -0.11 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.23 |
| 1997 | #123 | Chad Levitt | OFF | -0.24 | +0.00 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.23 |
| 2010 | #190 | Travis Goethel | DEF | -0.12 | -0.16 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 1985 | #191 | Bret Clark | DEF | -0.41 | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 2008 | #100 | Tyvon Branch | DEF | +0.17 | +0.67 | -0.94 | -0.01 | — | -0.23 | -0.19 | -0.25 |
| 1985 | #188 | Mark Pattison | OFF | -0.35 | -0.04 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.26 |
| 1991 | #43 | Nick Bell | OFF | +0.06 | -0.29 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.26 |
| 2003 | #129 | Shurron Pierson | DEF | -0.31 | -0.10 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.26 |
| 1985 | #80 | Stefon Adams | DEF | +0.40 | -0.51 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.28 |
| 1985 | #107 | Jamie Kimmel | DEF | +0.07 | -0.31 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| 1989 | #156 | Doug Lloyd | OFF | -0.42 | -0.01 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 1988 | #90 | Tim Rother | DEF | -0.11 | -0.24 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.32 |
| 1995 | #190 | Eli Herring | OFF | -0.33 | -0.16 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.32 |
| 2003 | #204 | Dustin Rykert | OFF | -0.32 | -0.16 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.32 |
| 2005 | #214 | Pete McMahon | OFF | -0.32 | -0.16 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.32 |
| 1990 | #37 | Aaron Wallace | DEF | +0.76 | -0.39 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.33 | -0.21 | -0.33 |
| 1983 | #194 | Jeff McCall | OFF | -0.45 | -0.01 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 1990 | #95 | Torin Dorn | DEF | +0.53 | -0.56 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.35 |
| 2003 | #32 | Tyler Brayton | DEF | +0.27 | +0.00 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.26 | -0.13 | -0.35 |
| 1982 | #177 | Jeff Jackson | DEF | -0.47 | -0.09 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.36 |
| 2004 | #182 | Cody Spencer | DEF | -0.44 | -0.10 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.36 |
| 1985 | #79 | Tim Moffett | OFF | +0.03 | -0.30 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 2004 | #2 | Robert Gallery | OFF | +0.58 | +0.55 | — | -0.40 | — | -0.60 | -0.50 | -0.38 |
| 1984 | #183 | Mitch Willis | DEF | +0.10 | -0.38 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.40 |
| 1994 | #217 | Rob Holmberg | DEF | +0.51 | -0.52 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.03 | -0.03 | -0.40 |
| 2010 | #138 | Walter McFadden | DEF | -0.44 | -0.19 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.41 |
| 1995 | #138 | Matt Dyson | DEF | -0.41 | -0.16 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 2009 | #126 | Slade Norris | DEF | -0.44 | -0.18 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 1994 | #159 | Roosevelt Patterson | OFF | -0.39 | -0.22 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.44 |
| 1995 | #154 | Jeff Kysar | OFF | -0.40 | -0.23 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.44 |
| 1994 | #80 | Calvin Jones | OFF | -0.25 | -0.21 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.44 |
| 1985 | #143 | Rusty Hilger | OFF | -0.31 | -0.16 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.03 | +0.00 | -0.45 |
| 1985 | #186 | Kevin Belcher | OFF | -0.33 | -0.24 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 1992 | #156 | Tony Rowell | OFF | -0.41 | -0.23 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| 2007 | #110 | John Bowie | DEF | -0.44 | -0.22 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 1985 | #192 | Nick Haden | OFF | -0.41 | -0.23 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 2005 | #23 | Fabian Washington | DEF | -0.01 | -0.13 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.10 | -0.06 | -0.48 |
| 1999 | #102 | Dameane Douglas | OFF | -0.51 | -0.17 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 1985 | #135 | Dan Reeder | OFF | -0.54 | -0.10 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 2004 | #99 | Carlos Francis | OFF | -0.43 | -0.21 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.51 |
| 2008 | #125 | Arman Shields | OFF | -0.52 | -0.17 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.51 |
| 2011 | #81 | DeMarcus Van Dyke | DEF | -0.37 | -0.27 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.52 |
| 1982 | #35 | Jack Squirek | DEF | +0.27 | -0.52 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.53 |
| 1983 | #82 | Tony Caldwell | DEF | +0.06 | -0.43 | — | -0.31 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.53 |
| 1998 | #109 | Gennaro DiNapoli | OFF | -0.44 | -0.27 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.53 |
| 1994 | #52 | James Folston | DEF | +0.39 | -0.51 | — | -0.41 | — | -0.09 | -0.06 | -0.55 |
| 1986 | #164 | Doug Marrone | OFF | -0.45 | -0.27 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.55 |
| 1988 | #143 | Erwin Grabisna | DEF | -0.55 | -0.18 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.55 |
| 2006 | #101 | Darnell Bing | DEF | -0.58 | -0.24 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.56 |
| 1996 | #9 | Rickey Dudley | OFF | +0.09 | +0.43 | — | -0.38 | — | -0.58 | -0.32 | -0.57 |
| 1992 | #32 | Greg Skrepenak | OFF | -0.16 | -0.28 | — | -0.31 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.59 |
| 1986 | #191 | Bill Lewis | OFF | -0.38 | -0.20 | — | -0.27 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.60 |
| 2011 | #113 | Chimdi Chekwa | DEF | -0.04 | -0.33 | +0.35 | -0.23 | -0.93 | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.62 |
| 1981 | #23 | Curt Marsh | OFF | -0.15 | -0.38 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.18 | -0.08 | -0.64 |
| 1999 | #18 | Matt Stinchcomb | OFF | +0.08 | -0.57 | — | -0.32 | — | -0.11 | -0.06 | -0.65 |
| 1982 | #91 | Ed Muransky | OFF | -0.13 | -0.52 | — | -0.32 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.66 |
| 2000 | #107 | Junior Ioane | DEF | -0.48 | -0.32 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.66 |
| 2010 | #106 | Bruce Campbell | OFF | -0.29 | -0.46 | — | -0.27 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.66 |
| 1990 | #149 | Marcus Wilson | OFF | -0.62 | -0.19 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.67 |
| 2002 | #23 | Napoleon Harris | DEF | -0.27 | -0.08 | — | -0.35 | — | -0.17 | -0.11 | -0.67 |
| 1991 | #24 | Todd Marinovich | OFF | -0.36 | -0.28 | — | -0.36 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.70 |
| 1980 | #125 | Kenny Lewis | OFF | -0.66 | -0.20 | — | -0.27 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.73 |
| 1994 | #120 | Austin Robbins | DEF | -0.35 | -0.46 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.73 |
| 1986 | #80 | Brad Cochran | DEF | -0.67 | -0.33 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.75 |
| 1984 | #84 | Joe McCall | OFF | -0.63 | -0.27 | — | -0.31 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.79 |
| 1982 | #123 | Ed Jackson | DEF | -0.69 | -0.31 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.81 |
| 1997 | #85 | Tim Kohn | OFF | -0.58 | -0.43 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.81 |
| 1997 | #172 | Calvin Branch | DEF | +0.28 | -0.71 | — | -0.55 | — | -0.06 | -0.05 | -0.82 |
| 1993 | #58 | Billy Joe Hobert | OFF | -0.46 | -0.40 | — | -0.38 | — | -0.05 | -0.01 | -0.84 |
| 2007 | #65 | Quentin Moses | DEF | -0.70 | -0.38 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.84 |
| 1980 | #126 | John Adams | DEF | -0.72 | -0.34 | — | -0.32 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.87 |
| 1980 | #128 | William Bowens | DEF | -0.72 | -0.33 | — | -0.32 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.87 |
| 2009 | #124 | Louis Murphy | OFF | -0.37 | -0.39 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.16 | -0.10 | -0.88 |
| 1981 | #21 | Ted Watts | DEF | -0.07 | -0.60 | — | -0.45 | — | -0.27 | -0.14 | -0.99 |
| 2007 | #165 | Eric Frampton | DEF | -0.83 | -0.44 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.03 | -0.03 | -1.00 |
| 1986 | #108 | Napoleon McCallum | OFF | +0.37 | -0.72 | — | -0.68 | — | -0.20 | -0.11 | -1.02 |
| 1994 | #22 | Rob Fredrickson | DEF | -0.38 | -0.12 | — | -0.45 | — | -0.40 | -0.28 | -1.04 |
| 1993 | #12 | Patrick Bates | DEF | -0.26 | -0.65 | — | -0.65 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -1.15 |
| 2010 | #8 | Rolando McClain | DEF | -0.38 | -0.29 | — | -0.63 | — | -0.23 | -0.17 | -1.17 |
| 2006 | #176 | Kevin Boothe | OFF | -0.62 | -0.57 | +0.04 | -0.73 | — | -0.08 | -0.06 | -1.18 |
| 1998 | #31 | Leon Bender | DEF | -0.80 | -0.57 | — | -0.48 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -1.19 |
| 1993 | #72 | James Trapp | DEF | +0.23 | -0.71 | — | -0.73 | — | -0.33 | -0.25 | -1.26 |
| 1980 | #15 | Marc Wilson | OFF | +0.27 | -0.52 | — | -0.37 | — | -1.35 | -0.21 | -1.28 |
| 1997 | #193 | Grady Jackson | DEF | -0.42 | -0.61 | — | -0.69 | — | -0.16 | -0.11 | -1.35 |
| 1999 | #146 | Eric Barton | DEF | -0.35 | -0.47 | — | -0.71 | — | -0.25 | -0.23 | -1.36 |
| 2001 | #59 | Marques Tuiasosopo | OFF | -0.64 | -0.67 | — | -0.65 | — | -0.09 | -0.02 | -1.36 |
| 1986 | #24 | Bob Buczkowski | DEF | -0.88 | -0.71 | — | -0.64 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -1.47 |
| 2007 | #1 | JaMarcus Russell | OFF | +0.08 | -0.40 | — | -1.27 | — | -0.10 | -0.03 | -1.50 |
| 1982 | #37 | Jim Romano | OFF | -0.79 | -0.83 | — | -0.65 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | -1.51 |
| 1987 | #15 | John Clay | OFF | -0.76 | -0.81 | — | -0.72 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | -1.56 |
| 2011 | #48 | Stefen Wisniewski | OFF | -0.42 | +0.02 | -0.20 | -0.47 | -1.50 | -0.67 | -0.41 | -1.72 |
| 2010 | #69 | Jared Veldheer | OFF | -0.74 | -0.40 | -0.87 | -0.62 | — | -0.66 | -0.43 | -1.84 |
| 1991 | #100 | Rocket Ismail | OFF | -0.72 | -0.90 | — | -0.83 | — | -0.30 | -0.18 | -1.88 |
| 2006 | #69 | Paul McQuistan | OFF | -0.67 | -0.94 | — | -0.91 | — | -0.23 | -0.15 | -1.91 |
| 2011 | #92 | Joe Barksdale | OFF | -0.90 | -1.06 | — | -0.85 | — | -0.16 | -0.10 | -1.96 |
| 2009 | #47 | Mike Mitchell | DEF | -0.39 | -1.21 | — | -1.09 | — | -0.49 | -0.37 | -2.32 |
| 2002 | #17 | Phillip Buchanon | DEF | -1.10 | -1.00 | — | -0.95 | — | -0.62 | -0.49 | -2.56 |
| 2002 | #147 | Kenyon Coleman | DEF | -1.66 | -1.18 | — | -1.18 | — | -0.14 | -0.08 | -2.71 |
| 1984 | #51 | Sean Jones | DEF | -1.12 | -1.14 | — | -1.27 | — | -1.04 | -0.49 | -3.17 |
| 2009 | #7 | Darrius Heyward-Bey | OFF | -0.77 | -0.55 | — | -1.29 | — | -1.47 | -0.97 | -3.17 |
| 1982 | #10 | Marcus Allen | OFF | -0.13 | -0.02 | — | +1.04 | — | -5.84 | -2.81 | -3.36 |
| 2008 | #4 | Darren McFadden | OFF | -0.15 | -0.33 | -0.93 | -0.65 | -2.09 | -1.99 | -1.50 | -3.59 |
| 1996 | #166 | La'Roi Glover | DEF | -2.05 | -1.54 | — | -1.65 | — | -0.20 | -0.13 | -3.62 |
| 1985 | #23 | Jessie Hester | OFF | -1.27 | -1.37 | — | -1.42 | — | -1.25 | -0.64 | -3.69 |
| 2011 | #125 | Taiwan Jones | OFF | -0.75 | -1.71 | -1.51 | -1.76 | -1.90 | -0.95 | -0.70 | -3.98 |
| 1987 | #110 | Steve Beuerlein | OFF | -2.52 | -2.05 | — | -2.38 | — | -0.81 | -0.21 | -5.18 |
| 1998 | #4 | Charles Woodson | DEF | -0.34 | +0.35 | -2.28 | -0.59 | -0.94 | -2.80 | -6.48 | -6.17 |
| 2000 | #17 | Sebastian Janikowski | ST | +2.24 | -3.41 | -2.59 | -1.47 | -1.58 | -3.66 | -6.63 | -7.92 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.