Brian Xanders
DEN · Composite skill θ = +0.07 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.59 to +0.73
Evidence: 19 mapped picks across 2 draft classes, 2009–2010 · 100% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.22
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2009–2010DENCo-GM with McDaniels era
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | #22 | Demaryius Thomas | OFF | +2.65 |
| 2010 | #87 | Eric Decker | OFF | +1.36 |
| 2009 | #12 | Knowshon Moreno | OFF | +0.83 |
| 2010 | #45 | Zane Beadles | OFF | +0.55 |
| 2010 | #80 | J.D. Walton | OFF | +0.17 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | #18 | Robert Ayers | DEF | -1.94 |
| 2009 | #37 | Alphonso Smith | DEF | -1.04 |
| 2010 | #137 | Perrish Cox | DEF | -0.77 |
| 2009 | #48 | Darcel McBath | DEF | -0.77 |
| 2009 | #132 | Seth Olsen | OFF | -0.68 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 19 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2010 | #22 | Demaryius Thomas | OFF | +1.02 | +1.36 | +1.18 | +1.64 | +0.73 | +1.16 | -0.59 | +2.65 |
| 2010 | #87 | Eric Decker | OFF | +0.23 | +0.36 | +0.48 | +0.42 | +1.81 | -0.16 | -0.09 | +1.36 |
| 2009 | #12 | Knowshon Moreno | OFF | +0.19 | +0.16 | +0.26 | +0.37 | +1.25 | -0.25 | -0.14 | +0.83 |
| 2010 | #45 | Zane Beadles | OFF | -0.12 | +0.24 | -0.03 | +0.22 | +0.43 | +0.66 | -0.26 | +0.55 |
| 2010 | #80 | J.D. Walton | OFF | -0.03 | +0.27 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | +0.17 |
| 2009 | #174 | Tom Brandstater | OFF | -0.11 | +0.10 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| 2010 | #225 | Syd'Quan Thompson | DEF | -0.05 | -0.03 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.02 |
| 2010 | #232 | Jammie Kirlew | DEF | -0.34 | +0.00 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.14 |
| 2010 | #25 | Tim Tebow | OFF | -0.07 | -0.18 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.05 | -0.01 | -0.22 |
| 2009 | #141 | Kenny McKinley | OFF | -0.30 | -0.15 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 2009 | #64 | Richard Quinn | OFF | -0.09 | -0.36 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.38 |
| 2009 | #225 | Blake Schlueter | OFF | -0.36 | -0.20 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 2009 | #114 | David Bruton | DEF | +1.33 | -0.55 | +0.20 | -0.22 | -1.15 | -0.09 | -0.07 | -0.43 |
| 2010 | #183 | Eric Olsen | OFF | -0.42 | -0.28 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.52 |
| 2009 | #132 | Seth Olsen | OFF | -0.47 | -0.37 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.68 |
| 2009 | #48 | Darcel McBath | DEF | -0.33 | -0.50 | — | -0.31 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.77 |
| 2010 | #137 | Perrish Cox | DEF | -0.57 | -0.29 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.05 | -0.04 | -0.77 |
| 2009 | #37 | Alphonso Smith | DEF | -0.51 | -0.62 | — | -0.44 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.04 |
| 2009 | #18 | Robert Ayers | DEF | -0.06 | -0.81 | -0.59 | -0.77 | -1.41 | -0.49 | -0.24 | -1.94 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.