Dwight Clark
CLE · Composite skill θ = -0.16 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.99 to +0.67
Evidence: 32 mapped picks across 3 draft classes, 1999–2001 · 100% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.76
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1999–2001CLEDirector Football Ops; expansion-era new Browns under Carmen Policy
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | #62 | Daylon McCutcheon | DEF | +2.76 |
| 1999 | #32 | Kevin Johnson | OFF | +1.21 |
| 2001 | #203 | Paul Zukauskas | OFF | +0.87 |
| 2000 | #110 | Aaron Shea | OFF | +0.82 |
| 1999 | #1 | Tim Couch | OFF | +0.66 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | #3 | Gerard Warren | DEF | -3.02 |
| 1999 | #191 | James Dearth | OFF | -2.41 |
| 2000 | #95 | Lewis Sanders | DEF | -0.99 |
| 2000 | #1 | Courtney Brown | DEF | -0.91 |
| 2001 | #134 | Jeremiah Pharms | DEF | -0.50 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 32 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1999 | #62 | Daylon McCutcheon | DEF | +1.44 | +1.95 | — | +1.13 | — | -0.07 | -0.05 | +2.76 |
| 1999 | #32 | Kevin Johnson | OFF | +0.57 | +1.05 | — | +0.50 | — | -0.13 | -0.07 | +1.21 |
| 2001 | #203 | Paul Zukauskas | OFF | +0.73 | +0.35 | — | +0.34 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.87 |
| 2000 | #110 | Aaron Shea | OFF | +0.83 | +0.45 | — | +0.20 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.82 |
| 1999 | #1 | Tim Couch | OFF | +0.90 | +0.60 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.08 | -0.02 | +0.66 |
| 2001 | #245 | Andre King | OFF | +0.80 | +0.19 | — | +0.16 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.65 |
| 1999 | #124 | Wali Rainer | DEF | +0.17 | +0.67 | — | +0.25 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.64 |
| 2001 | #165 | Michael Jameson | DEF | +0.64 | -0.01 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.52 |
| 1999 | #76 | Marquis Smith | DEF | +0.51 | +0.27 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.50 |
| 2001 | #33 | Quincy Morgan | OFF | +0.31 | +0.51 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | +0.46 |
| 1999 | #148 | Darrin Chiaverini | OFF | +0.24 | +0.23 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.37 |
| 2000 | #183 | Spergon Wynn | OFF | +0.16 | +0.23 | — | +0.17 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.36 |
| 2001 | #65 | James Jackson | OFF | +0.37 | +0.16 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.33 |
| 2000 | #225 | Rashidi Barnes | DEF | +0.08 | +0.07 | — | +0.16 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.23 |
| 1999 | #174 | Marcus Spriggs | DEF | +0.10 | +0.01 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 |
| 2001 | #97 | Anthony Henry | DEF | +0.11 | +0.14 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.12 | -0.09 | +0.15 |
| 2000 | #209 | Eric Chandler | DEF | -0.28 | +0.07 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 1999 | #207 | Madre Hill | OFF | -0.19 | +0.11 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.02 |
| 2000 | #146 | Lamar Chapman | DEF | -0.22 | -0.07 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 2000 | #130 | Anthony Malbrough | DEF | -0.23 | -0.08 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.15 |
| 1999 | #187 | Kendall Ogle | DEF | -0.36 | -0.06 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 2000 | #32 | Dennis Northcutt | OFF | +0.55 | -0.25 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.51 | -0.30 | -0.28 |
| 2000 | #207 | Manuia Savea | OFF | -0.30 | -0.14 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.28 |
| 2000 | #63 | Travis Prentice | OFF | -0.29 | +0.01 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.30 |
| 2000 | #79 | JaJuan Dawson | OFF | -0.20 | -0.20 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
| 1999 | #45 | Rahim Abdullah | DEF | -0.12 | -0.07 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.33 |
| 2000 | #206 | Brad Bedell | OFF | -0.05 | -0.38 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.49 |
| 2001 | #134 | Jeremiah Pharms | DEF | -0.53 | -0.18 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 2000 | #1 | Courtney Brown | DEF | +0.02 | -0.08 | — | -0.74 | — | -0.16 | -0.11 | -0.91 |
| 2000 | #95 | Lewis Sanders | DEF | -0.11 | -0.69 | — | -0.49 | — | -0.12 | -0.09 | -0.99 |
| 1999 | #191 | James Dearth | OFF | -1.59 | -1.15 | — | -0.93 | — | -0.13 | -0.09 | -2.41 |
| 2001 | #3 | Gerard Warren | DEF | -0.83 | -0.66 | — | -1.25 | — | -1.21 | -0.83 | -3.02 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.