Rick Spielman
MIN · Composite skill θ = +0.50 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.09 to +1.09
Evidence: 42 mapped picks across 6 draft classes, 2006–2011 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.06
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2006–2011MINVP Player Personnel under Childress; pre-formal-GM
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | #100 | Everson Griffen | DEF | +4.17 |
| 2007 | #102 | Brian Robison | DEF | +1.95 |
| 2006 | #127 | Ray Edwards | DEF | +1.91 |
| 2009 | #54 | Phil Loadholt | OFF | +1.68 |
| 2006 | #17 | Chad Greenway | DEF | +1.45 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | #199 | Joe Webb | OFF | -1.94 |
| 2006 | #64 | Tarvaris Jackson | OFF | -1.21 |
| 2011 | #168 | Demarcus Love | OFF | -0.62 |
| 2010 | #167 | Nate Triplett | DEF | -0.54 |
| 2011 | #200 | Ross Homan | DEF | -0.47 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 42 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2010 | #100 | Everson Griffen | DEF | +1.65 | +1.00 | +1.91 | +1.76 | +0.98 | +2.83 | -0.26 | +4.17 |
| 2007 | #102 | Brian Robison | DEF | +2.35 | +1.51 | +1.38 | +1.13 | -0.33 | -0.26 | -0.14 | +1.95 |
| 2006 | #127 | Ray Edwards | DEF | +0.85 | +1.12 | — | +0.95 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +1.91 |
| 2009 | #54 | Phil Loadholt | OFF | +1.17 | +1.62 | +0.71 | +1.13 | +0.01 | -0.08 | -0.05 | +1.68 |
| 2006 | #17 | Chad Greenway | DEF | +1.46 | +1.96 | -0.32 | +1.56 | -0.64 | +0.93 | -1.01 | +1.45 |
| 2009 | #150 | Jasper Brinkley | DEF | +0.58 | +0.26 | +0.60 | +0.23 | +1.56 | -0.05 | -0.04 | +1.33 |
| 2009 | #231 | Jamarca Sanford | DEF | +0.96 | +0.86 | +1.15 | +0.37 | +0.20 | -0.02 | -0.02 | +1.25 |
| 2006 | #48 | Cedric Griffin | DEF | +0.77 | +1.09 | — | +0.39 | — | -0.11 | -0.07 | +1.23 |
| 2011 | #43 | Kyle Rudolph | OFF | +0.97 | +1.69 | +1.33 | +0.11 | -0.26 | +0.70 | -0.81 | +1.20 |
| 2011 | #172 | Brandon Fusco | OFF | +0.53 | +0.93 | +0.93 | +0.50 | +0.01 | -0.08 | -0.05 | +0.99 |
| 2008 | #187 | John Sullivan | OFF | +0.96 | +1.21 | +0.51 | +0.61 | -0.20 | -0.19 | -0.15 | +0.92 |
| 2011 | #170 | Mistral Raymond | DEF | +0.29 | +0.14 | +1.00 | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.59 |
| 2009 | #22 | Percy Harvin | OFF | -0.25 | -0.12 | — | +0.54 | — | +0.69 | -0.22 | +0.58 |
| 2007 | #44 | Sidney Rice | OFF | -0.03 | -0.15 | — | +0.12 | — | +0.95 | -0.08 | +0.47 |
| 2011 | #12 | Christian Ponder | OFF | +0.17 | +0.18 | +0.26 | +0.19 | +0.35 | -0.08 | -0.01 | +0.43 |
| 2009 | #86 | Asher Allen | DEF | +0.21 | +0.25 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.35 |
| 2008 | #43 | Tyrell Johnson | DEF | +0.36 | +0.19 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.26 |
| 2007 | #7 | Adrian Peterson | OFF | -0.35 | +0.20 | -1.83 | +1.26 | -0.08 | -1.69 | +2.31 | +0.24 |
| 2006 | #51 | Ryan Cook | OFF | +0.53 | +0.10 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.12 | -0.07 | +0.19 |
| 2007 | #146 | Aundrae Allison | OFF | +0.17 | -0.11 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.06 |
| 2008 | #152 | Letroy Guion | DEF | +0.37 | +0.03 | +0.32 | -0.12 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | +0.06 |
| 2006 | #149 | Greg Blue | DEF | -0.07 | -0.05 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.00 |
| 2011 | #236 | Stephen Burton | OFF | +0.01 | +0.01 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| 2010 | #237 | Ryan D'Imperio | OFF | -0.07 | +0.08 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.04 |
| 2008 | #137 | John David Booty | OFF | -0.18 | +0.04 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.05 |
| 2010 | #51 | Toby Gerhart | OFF | +0.45 | -0.47 | +0.13 | -0.01 | — | -0.12 | -0.06 | -0.06 |
| 2007 | #217 | Tyler Thigpen | OFF | -0.20 | +0.02 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.10 |
| 2011 | #106 | Christian Ballard | DEF | +0.15 | -0.21 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| 2010 | #34 | Chris Cook | DEF | -0.08 | +0.14 | +0.49 | -0.09 | -0.39 | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.11 |
| 2007 | #233 | Chandler Williams | OFF | -0.29 | +0.04 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| 2011 | #215 | D'Aundre Reed | DEF | -0.24 | -0.04 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.15 |
| 2007 | #72 | Marcus McCauley | DEF | -0.05 | -0.09 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.16 |
| 2008 | #193 | Jaymar Johnson | OFF | -0.23 | -0.03 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| 2011 | #139 | Brandon Burton | DEF | -0.21 | -0.17 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 2010 | #161 | Chris DeGeare | OFF | -0.30 | -0.18 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.36 |
| 2007 | #176 | Rufus Alexander | DEF | -0.46 | -0.14 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 2010 | #214 | Mickey Shuler | OFF | -0.62 | -0.26 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 2011 | #200 | Ross Homan | DEF | -0.50 | -0.16 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 2010 | #167 | Nate Triplett | DEF | -0.55 | -0.20 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.54 |
| 2011 | #168 | Demarcus Love | OFF | -0.49 | -0.32 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.62 |
| 2006 | #64 | Tarvaris Jackson | OFF | -0.55 | -0.57 | — | -0.51 | — | -0.23 | -0.04 | -1.21 |
| 2010 | #199 | Joe Webb | OFF | -0.87 | -1.06 | -0.16 | -1.06 | — | -0.20 | -0.15 | -1.94 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.