Chris Ballard
IND · Composite skill θ = +0.36 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.03 to +1.74
Composite θ
+0.36
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-1.03–+1.74
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
69%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Elite
directional only
Evidence: 82 mapped picks across 9 draft classes, 2017–2025 · 62% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.39
- maturity discount
- -0.22
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2017–2025IND
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | #6 | Quenton Nelson | OFF | +9.54 |
| 2018 | #36 | Shaquille Leonard | DEF | +6.02 |
| 2020 | #41 | Jonathan Taylor | OFF | +5.07 |
| 2018 | #235 | Zaire Franklin | DEF | +3.01 |
| 2017 | #144 | Grover Stewart | DEF | +2.41 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | #15 | Malik Hooker | DEF | -2.81 |
| 2019 | #49 | Ben Banogu | DEF | -1.54 |
| 2019 | #59 | Parris Campbell | OFF | -1.42 |
| 2017 | #46 | Quincy Wilson | DEF | -1.41 |
| 2019 | #34 | Rock Ya-Sin | DEF | -1.27 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 82 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2018 | #6 | Quenton Nelson | OFF | +1.22 | +1.53 | +1.36 | +2.06 | +1.57 | +7.21 | +5.51 | +9.54 |
| 2018 | #36 | Shaquille Leonard | DEF | +0.35 | +0.83 | +0.66 | +1.86 | +2.93 | -0.27 | +6.30 | +6.02 |
| 2020 | #41 | Jonathan Taylor | OFF | +0.73 | +1.24 | +1.55 | +1.91 | +1.06 | +2.87 | +1.97 | +5.07 |
| 2018 | #235 | Zaire Franklin | DEF | +1.99 | +1.49 | +2.39 | +1.21 | -0.01 | +0.99 | -0.08 | +3.01 |
| 2017 | #144 | Grover Stewart | DEF | +1.94 | +2.01 | +2.11 | +1.21 | -0.13 | -0.20 | -0.10 | +2.41 |
| 2020 | #34 | Michael Pittman Jr. | OFF | +0.99 | +1.35 | +1.90 | +1.20 | +0.18 | -0.37 | -0.16 | +1.84 |
| 2025 | #14 | Tyler Warren | OFF | -0.35 | -0.38 | -0.28 | -0.12 | +2.58 | +1.04 | -0.02 | +1.40 |
| 2023 | #221 | Jaylon Jones | DEF | +0.74 | +0.80 | +1.28 | +0.51 | +0.36 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.37 |
| 2023 | #79 | Josh Downs | OFF | +0.50 | +0.45 | +0.55 | +0.57 | +1.11 | -0.05 | -0.02 | +1.31 |
| 2022 | #53 | Alec Pierce | OFF | +0.66 | +0.93 | +1.11 | +0.65 | +0.25 | -0.11 | -0.04 | +1.27 |
| 2021 | #21 | Kwity Paye | DEF | +0.58 | +1.02 | +0.51 | +0.61 | +0.72 | -0.22 | -0.08 | +1.21 |
| 2022 | #77 | Bernhard Raimann | OFF | +0.66 | +0.89 | +0.86 | +0.67 | +0.03 | -0.08 | -0.04 | +1.09 |
| 2024 | #117 | Tanor Bortolini | OFF | +0.28 | +0.32 | +0.36 | +0.25 | +1.11 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.99 |
| 2022 | #239 | Rodney Thomas II | DEF | +1.12 | +0.54 | +0.81 | +0.30 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.94 |
| 2022 | #96 | Nick Cross | DEF | +0.88 | +0.65 | +0.56 | +0.41 | +0.03 | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.87 |
| 2025 | #189 | Riley Leonard | OFF | +0.35 | +0.42 | +0.70 | +0.34 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.83 |
| 2020 | #85 | Julian Blackmon | DEF | +0.49 | +0.99 | +0.70 | +0.38 | -0.02 | -0.14 | -0.09 | +0.78 |
| 2017 | #143 | Marlon Mack | OFF | +0.26 | +0.22 | +0.13 | +0.44 | +0.84 | -0.09 | -0.05 | +0.77 |
| 2018 | #37 | Braden Smith | OFF | +0.92 | +1.40 | +0.47 | +1.00 | -0.30 | -0.71 | -0.37 | +0.74 |
| 2024 | #79 | Matt Goncalves | OFF | +0.28 | +0.27 | +0.36 | +0.22 | +0.45 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.62 |
| 2021 | #248 | Will Fries | OFF | +0.40 | +0.44 | +0.63 | +0.21 | +0.07 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.61 |
| 2023 | #106 | Blake Freeland | OFF | +0.21 | -0.02 | +0.18 | +0.07 | +0.68 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.48 |
| 2019 | #109 | Khari Willis | DEF | +0.13 | +0.47 | -0.21 | +0.20 | +0.54 | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.45 |
| 2020 | #211 | Isaiah Rodgers | DEF | +0.28 | -0.16 | +0.33 | +0.01 | +0.52 | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.37 |
| 2021 | #127 | Kylen Granson | OFF | +0.64 | -0.02 | +0.26 | +0.18 | -0.02 | -0.07 | -0.03 | +0.32 |
| 2025 | #232 | Hunter Wohler | ST | -0.02 | +0.26 | — | +0.20 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.32 |
| 2025 | #190 | Tim Smith | DEF | -0.08 | +0.22 | +0.28 | +0.16 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.30 |
| 2019 | #89 | Bobby Okereke | DEF | +0.20 | +0.42 | +0.90 | +0.20 | -0.27 | -0.24 | -0.15 | +0.29 |
| 2024 | #234 | Jonah Laulu | DEF | -0.14 | +0.17 | +0.38 | +0.13 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.26 |
| 2024 | #151 | Jaylon Carlies | DEF | +0.00 | +0.17 | -0.11 | +0.16 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.17 |
| 2025 | #127 | Jalen Travis | OFF | +0.17 | -0.01 | +0.23 | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.16 |
| 2019 | #164 | E.J. Speed | DEF | +1.07 | +0.15 | +0.51 | +0.07 | -0.73 | -0.12 | -0.08 | +0.15 |
| 2025 | #151 | DJ Giddens | OFF | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.14 |
| 2018 | #169 | Jordan Wilkins | OFF | +0.63 | -0.10 | +0.15 | +0.10 | -0.28 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.11 |
| 2017 | #161 | Anthony Walker | DEF | -0.15 | +0.26 | +0.39 | -0.02 | +0.30 | -0.24 | -0.18 | +0.10 |
| 2023 | #211 | Titus Leo | DEF | -0.24 | +0.07 | +0.30 | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| 2024 | #52 | Adonai Mitchell | OFF | +0.00 | -0.12 | -0.53 | -0.13 | +0.68 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.02 |
| 2024 | #201 | Micah Abraham | DEF | -0.21 | +0.09 | -0.13 | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| 2022 | #159 | Eric Johnson | DEF | +0.39 | -0.21 | -0.17 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.04 |
| 2023 | #162 | Will Mallory | OFF | +0.10 | -0.09 | -0.74 | +0.21 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 2017 | #158 | Nate Hairston | DEF | -0.18 | -0.14 | +0.46 | -0.12 | +0.01 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.06 |
| 2024 | #142 | Anthony Gould | OFF | +0.14 | +0.03 | -0.21 | -0.04 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.06 |
| 2018 | #221 | Matthew Adams | DEF | +0.38 | -0.37 | -0.08 | -0.15 | +0.17 | -0.07 | -0.05 | -0.07 |
| 2022 | #192 | Andrew Ogletree | OFF | +0.50 | +0.34 | +0.15 | +0.15 | -0.93 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.08 |
| 2023 | #110 | Adetomiwa Adebawore | DEF | +0.50 | -0.01 | +0.34 | +0.11 | -0.80 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.09 |
| 2024 | #164 | Jaylin Simpson | ST | -0.28 | +0.03 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.09 |
| 2018 | #104 | Nyheim Hines | OFF | +0.32 | -0.47 | +0.12 | +0.18 | +0.06 | -0.38 | -0.20 | -0.18 |
| 2021 | #54 | Dayo Odeyingbo | DEF | +0.43 | -0.19 | +0.23 | -0.03 | -0.56 | -0.12 | -0.04 | -0.21 |
| 2021 | #218 | Sam Ehlinger | OFF | -0.11 | +0.00 | -0.45 | -0.01 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.21 |
| 2020 | #149 | Danny Pinter | OFF | +0.92 | -0.45 | -0.81 | -0.23 | +0.15 | -0.09 | -0.05 | -0.22 |
| 2023 | #236 | Jake Witt | OFF | -0.30 | -0.16 | -0.23 | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 2023 | #158 | Daniel Scott | DEF | -0.34 | -0.11 | -0.42 | -0.05 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 2023 | #176 | Evan Hull | OFF | -0.37 | -0.01 | -0.39 | -0.09 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 2025 | #80 | Justin Walley | DEF | -0.37 | -0.09 | -0.39 | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 2023 | #138 | Darius Rush | DEF | -0.48 | -0.15 | -0.21 | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 2024 | #15 | Laiatu Latu | DEF | -0.03 | -0.27 | +0.00 | -0.29 | -0.33 | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.45 |
| 2025 | #45 | JT Tuimoloau | DEF | -0.19 | -0.27 | -0.30 | -0.22 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 2018 | #185 | Deon Cain | OFF | -0.42 | -0.15 | -0.40 | -0.22 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.56 |
| 2022 | #216 | Curtis Brooks | DEF | -0.47 | -0.12 | -0.85 | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.57 |
| 2023 | #44 | Julius Brents | DEF | -0.53 | -0.29 | -0.68 | -0.31 | +0.20 | -0.07 | -0.03 | -0.60 |
| 2021 | #229 | Mike Strachan | OFF | -0.14 | -0.24 | -0.66 | -0.24 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.62 |
| 2020 | #122 | Jacob Eason | OFF | -0.45 | -0.24 | -0.63 | -0.22 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.68 |
| 2022 | #73 | Jelani Woods | OFF | -0.51 | -0.49 | -0.53 | -0.12 | — | -0.09 | -0.03 | -0.69 |
| 2020 | #213 | Jordan Glasgow | DEF | -0.09 | -0.33 | -0.91 | -0.21 | -0.23 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.69 |
| 2019 | #199 | Gerri Green | DEF | -0.60 | -0.23 | -0.72 | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.71 |
| 2019 | #246 | Javon Patterson | OFF | -0.54 | -0.37 | -0.45 | -0.27 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.74 |
| 2018 | #159 | Daurice Fountain | OFF | -0.50 | -0.28 | -0.67 | -0.26 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.77 |
| 2020 | #212 | Dezmon Patmon | OFF | -0.36 | -0.24 | -0.99 | -0.23 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.79 |
| 2017 | #137 | Zach Banner | OFF | -0.69 | -0.50 | -0.04 | -0.37 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.81 |
| 2019 | #240 | Jackson Barton | OFF | -0.75 | -0.55 | +0.26 | -0.44 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.82 |
| 2019 | #144 | Marvell Tell III | DEF | -0.41 | -0.33 | -1.19 | -0.21 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.88 |
| 2020 | #193 | Robert Windsor | DEF | -0.59 | -0.26 | -1.17 | -0.20 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.89 |
| 2017 | #80 | Tarell Basham | DEF | -0.64 | -0.65 | -0.34 | -0.49 | — | -0.09 | -0.04 | -1.09 |
| 2023 | #4 | Anthony Richardson | OFF | -0.33 | -0.60 | -0.82 | -0.79 | -0.17 | -0.13 | -0.02 | -1.13 |
| 2018 | #52 | Kemoko Turay | DEF | -0.14 | -0.67 | -0.88 | -0.44 | -0.54 | -0.12 | -0.07 | -1.14 |
| 2018 | #64 | Tyquan Lewis | DEF | +0.60 | -0.56 | -0.95 | -0.34 | -0.88 | -0.33 | -0.14 | -1.15 |
| 2021 | #165 | Shawn Davis | DEF | -0.73 | -0.36 | -1.44 | -0.27 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -1.16 |
| 2019 | #34 | Rock Ya-Sin | DEF | -0.51 | -0.40 | -0.20 | -0.56 | -0.54 | -0.45 | -0.26 | -1.27 |
| 2017 | #46 | Quincy Wilson | DEF | -0.48 | -0.59 | -0.89 | -0.54 | -0.73 | -0.17 | -0.10 | -1.41 |
| 2019 | #59 | Parris Campbell | OFF | -0.59 | -0.33 | -0.78 | -0.51 | -0.67 | -0.36 | -0.16 | -1.42 |
| 2019 | #49 | Ben Banogu | DEF | +0.11 | -0.80 | -1.31 | -0.53 | -1.00 | -0.14 | -0.08 | -1.54 |
| 2017 | #15 | Malik Hooker | DEF | -1.14 | -0.82 | -1.14 | -1.07 | -0.24 | -1.34 | -0.92 | -2.81 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.