Dick Szymanski
IND · Composite skill θ = -0.33 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.15 to +0.50
Evidence: 13 mapped picks across 2 draft classes, 1980–1981 · 100% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.10
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1980–1981INDGM Baltimore Colts era; pre-relocation
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1981 | #18 | Donnell Thompson | DEF | +1.41 |
| 1981 | #12 | Randy McMillan | OFF | +1.19 |
| 1980 | #88 | Ray Butler | OFF | +0.45 |
| 1980 | #24 | Derrick Hatchett | DEF | +0.19 |
| 1981 | #94 | Tim Sherwin | OFF | -0.00 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1980 | #144 | Chris Foote | OFF | -3.03 |
| 1980 | #32 | Ray Donaldson | OFF | -2.20 |
| 1980 | #51 | Tim Foley | OFF | -1.43 |
| 1981 | #68 | Randy Van Divier | OFF | -0.97 |
| 1981 | #178 | Obed Ariri | ST | -0.73 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 13 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1981 | #18 | Donnell Thompson | DEF | +1.23 | +1.96 | — | +0.75 | — | -1.34 | -0.55 | +1.41 |
| 1981 | #12 | Randy McMillan | OFF | +0.80 | +1.28 | — | +0.38 | — | -0.31 | -0.14 | +1.19 |
| 1980 | #88 | Ray Butler | OFF | +0.35 | +0.90 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.32 | -0.14 | +0.45 |
| 1980 | #24 | Derrick Hatchett | DEF | +0.12 | +0.39 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | +0.19 |
| 1981 | #94 | Tim Sherwin | OFF | +0.55 | +0.16 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.17 | -0.07 | -0.00 |
| 1981 | #149 | Bubba Green | DEF | -0.19 | +0.11 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| 1980 | #170 | Wes Roberts | DEF | -0.53 | -0.14 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 1980 | #5 | Curtis Dickey | OFF | +0.08 | -0.13 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.74 | -0.37 | -0.65 |
| 1981 | #178 | Obed Ariri | ST | -0.91 | -0.16 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.73 |
| 1981 | #68 | Randy Van Divier | OFF | -0.42 | -0.61 | — | -0.42 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.97 |
| 1980 | #51 | Tim Foley | OFF | -0.76 | -0.76 | — | -0.62 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | -1.43 |
| 1980 | #32 | Ray Donaldson | OFF | +0.68 | +1.29 | — | -0.07 | — | -1.98 | -4.25 | -2.20 |
| 1980 | #144 | Chris Foote | OFF | -1.10 | -1.53 | — | -1.41 | — | -0.39 | -0.22 | -3.03 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.