John Elway
DEN · Composite skill θ = -0.45 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.09 to +0.19
Composite θ
-0.45
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-1.09–+0.19
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
8%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Terrible
maturity-adjusted direction probability > 80%
Evidence: 80 mapped picks across 10 draft classes, 2011–2020 · 96% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.42
- maturity discount
- +0.02
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2011–2020DEN
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | #98 | Justin Simmons | DEF | +4.34 |
| 2018 | #40 | Courtland Sutton | OFF | +2.46 |
| 2017 | #20 | Garett Bolles | OFF | +2.23 |
| 2011 | #129 | Julius Thomas | OFF | +1.56 |
| 2012 | #36 | Derek Wolfe | DEF | +1.56 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | #2 | Von Miller | DEF | -3.00 |
| 2017 | #51 | DeMarcus Walker | DEF | -2.38 |
| 2014 | #31 | Bradley Roby | DEF | -2.29 |
| 2014 | #95 | Michael Schofield | OFF | -2.00 |
| 2016 | #63 | Adam Gotsis | DEF | -1.53 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 80 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2016 | #98 | Justin Simmons | DEF | +1.27 | +1.85 | +1.80 | +1.82 | +1.93 | +1.87 | -0.23 | +4.34 |
| 2018 | #40 | Courtland Sutton | OFF | +1.15 | +1.43 | +1.73 | +1.03 | -0.18 | +1.50 | -0.33 | +2.46 |
| 2017 | #20 | Garett Bolles | OFF | +1.25 | +1.80 | +1.59 | +1.17 | -0.89 | -0.30 | +1.37 | +2.23 |
| 2011 | #129 | Julius Thomas | OFF | -0.15 | +0.08 | +0.93 | +0.28 | +2.36 | -0.07 | -0.04 | +1.56 |
| 2012 | #36 | Derek Wolfe | DEF | +0.88 | +1.61 | +0.71 | +1.09 | +0.52 | -0.42 | -0.19 | +1.56 |
| 2011 | #45 | Rahim Moore | DEF | +0.52 | +0.75 | +0.73 | +0.38 | +0.65 | -0.05 | -0.03 | +1.13 |
| 2011 | #46 | Orlando Franklin | OFF | +0.26 | +0.64 | +0.65 | +0.56 | +0.66 | -0.18 | -0.10 | +0.99 |
| 2018 | #106 | Josey Jewell | DEF | +0.62 | +0.75 | +0.56 | +0.58 | +0.21 | -0.18 | -0.11 | +0.90 |
| 2012 | #67 | Ronnie Hillman | OFF | +0.36 | -0.01 | +0.60 | +0.30 | +0.38 | -0.07 | -0.03 | +0.61 |
| 2014 | #207 | Matt Paradis | OFF | +0.29 | +0.74 | +1.24 | +0.28 | -0.64 | -0.08 | -0.05 | +0.51 |
| 2020 | #83 | Lloyd Cushenberry III | OFF | +0.26 | +0.66 | +0.58 | +0.22 | -0.11 | -0.18 | -0.09 | +0.43 |
| 2011 | #67 | Nate Irving | DEF | +0.46 | -0.19 | +0.52 | -0.05 | +0.24 | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.32 |
| 2011 | #108 | Quinton Carter | DEF | +0.10 | -0.01 | +0.75 | +0.05 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.31 |
| 2016 | #176 | Andy Janovich | OFF | +0.42 | +0.20 | +0.89 | -0.27 | -0.10 | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.26 |
| 2012 | #188 | Danny Trevathan | DEF | -0.38 | -0.23 | +0.29 | -0.20 | +1.22 | -0.17 | -0.15 | +0.24 |
| 2013 | #234 | Zac Dysert | OFF | -0.07 | +0.13 | +0.31 | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.21 |
| 2014 | #242 | Corey Nelson | DEF | +0.76 | -0.13 | +0.70 | +0.05 | -0.49 | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.20 |
| 2020 | #178 | Justin Strnad | DEF | +1.06 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.15 | -0.50 | -0.07 | -0.05 | +0.18 |
| 2015 | #92 | Jeff Heuerman | OFF | +0.43 | +0.35 | -0.09 | +0.10 | -0.18 | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.15 |
| 2016 | #136 | Devontae Booker | OFF | +0.60 | -0.25 | +0.79 | +0.10 | -0.55 | -0.08 | -0.04 | +0.10 |
| 2012 | #101 | Omar Bolden | DEF | +0.69 | -0.30 | +0.19 | +0.01 | -0.26 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.04 |
| 2017 | #253 | Chad Kelly | OFF | -0.11 | +0.07 | +0.08 | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| 2016 | #219 | Will Parks | DEF | +0.70 | -0.09 | +0.69 | -0.02 | -0.74 | -0.05 | -0.04 | +0.02 |
| 2019 | #71 | Dre'Mont Jones | DEF | +0.04 | -0.12 | +0.38 | +0.04 | -0.04 | -0.21 | -0.08 | -0.05 |
| 2011 | #247 | Jeremy Beal | DEF | -0.33 | +0.01 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.13 |
| 2015 | #203 | Darius Kilgo | DEF | -0.05 | -0.13 | -0.20 | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 2013 | #28 | Sylvester Williams | DEF | +0.06 | +0.04 | -0.19 | -0.12 | +0.25 | -0.35 | -0.15 | -0.22 |
| 2020 | #118 | Albert Okwuegbunam | OFF | -0.43 | -0.47 | -0.82 | -0.10 | +0.90 | -0.12 | -0.05 | -0.26 |
| 2013 | #161 | Tavarres King | OFF | -0.52 | -0.17 | +0.33 | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| 2015 | #250 | Trevor Siemian | OFF | -0.29 | +0.04 | +0.22 | -0.10 | -0.44 | -0.06 | -0.01 | -0.32 |
| 2015 | #251 | Taurean Nixon | DEF | -0.37 | -0.09 | -0.41 | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 2015 | #252 | Josh Furman | DEF | -0.42 | -0.09 | -0.42 | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 2012 | #137 | Malik Jackson | DEF | -0.10 | -0.45 | +0.51 | -0.33 | -0.08 | -0.19 | -0.10 | -0.37 |
| 2018 | #113 | DaeSean Hamilton | OFF | +0.36 | -0.14 | +0.19 | -0.08 | -0.85 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.38 |
| 2011 | #204 | Virgil Green | OFF | +0.91 | +0.32 | +0.78 | -0.53 | -1.36 | -0.15 | -0.09 | -0.39 |
| 2013 | #173 | Vinston Painter | OFF | -0.52 | -0.34 | +0.46 | -0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 2020 | #181 | Netane Muti | OFF | -0.20 | -0.38 | -0.45 | -0.23 | +0.17 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.40 |
| 2015 | #23 | Shane Ray | DEF | +0.13 | -0.44 | -0.44 | -0.23 | +0.04 | -0.10 | -0.04 | -0.41 |
| 2013 | #146 | Quanterus Smith | DEF | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.57 | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.41 |
| 2015 | #164 | Lorenzo Doss | DEF | -0.21 | -0.22 | -0.37 | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.42 |
| 2019 | #187 | Juwann Winfree | OFF | -0.55 | -0.25 | +0.24 | -0.24 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.46 |
| 2011 | #189 | Mike Mohamed | DEF | -0.45 | -0.17 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 2014 | #156 | Lamin Barrow | DEF | -0.26 | -0.26 | -0.30 | -0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.49 |
| 2019 | #156 | Justin Hollins | DEF | -0.41 | -0.40 | +0.20 | -0.31 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.55 |
| 2017 | #203 | De'Angelo Henderson | OFF | -0.45 | -0.13 | -0.49 | -0.19 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.56 |
| 2020 | #254 | Derrek Tuszka | DEF | -0.41 | -0.28 | -0.29 | -0.22 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.57 |
| 2020 | #15 | Jerry Jeudy | OFF | -0.07 | -0.07 | -0.12 | -0.18 | -0.01 | -0.56 | -0.25 | -0.59 |
| 2013 | #58 | Montee Ball | OFF | -0.35 | -0.38 | -0.67 | -0.16 | +0.01 | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.60 |
| 2019 | #41 | Dalton Risner | OFF | +0.03 | +0.40 | +0.30 | -0.16 | -0.85 | -0.46 | -0.23 | -0.61 |
| 2016 | #228 | Riley Dixon | ST | +0.06 | -0.73 | +0.07 | -0.31 | -0.20 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.63 |
| 2015 | #133 | Max Garcia | OFF | -0.10 | -0.06 | +0.20 | -0.32 | -0.57 | -0.24 | -0.15 | -0.64 |
| 2017 | #145 | Jake Butt | OFF | -0.52 | -0.24 | -1.10 | +0.01 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.64 |
| 2018 | #156 | Troy Fumagalli | OFF | -0.25 | -0.21 | -1.06 | +0.01 | -0.21 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.64 |
| 2012 | #57 | Brock Osweiler | OFF | -0.24 | -0.37 | -0.22 | -0.32 | -0.37 | -0.10 | -0.02 | -0.69 |
| 2020 | #252 | Tyrie Cleveland | OFF | +0.02 | -0.19 | -0.50 | -0.20 | -0.72 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.70 |
| 2018 | #226 | David Williams | OFF | -0.55 | -0.12 | -0.89 | -0.18 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.72 |
| 2019 | #20 | Noah Fant | OFF | -0.50 | -0.28 | -0.16 | -0.40 | +0.57 | -0.72 | -0.30 | -0.73 |
| 2018 | #217 | Keishawn Bierria | DEF | -0.15 | -0.27 | -0.74 | -0.21 | -0.51 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.77 |
| 2018 | #71 | Royce Freeman | OFF | +0.00 | -0.46 | +0.02 | -0.27 | -0.76 | -0.20 | -0.10 | -0.82 |
| 2016 | #144 | Connor McGovern | OFF | -0.34 | -0.19 | -0.01 | -0.41 | -0.59 | -0.25 | -0.16 | -0.88 |
| 2020 | #77 | Michael Ojemudia | DEF | -0.43 | -0.26 | -1.10 | -0.28 | -0.21 | -0.09 | -0.05 | -0.91 |
| 2012 | #108 | Philip Blake | OFF | -0.65 | -0.48 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.93 |
| 2018 | #183 | Sam Jones | OFF | -0.50 | -0.43 | -0.88 | -0.31 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.94 |
| 2017 | #101 | Brendan Langley | DEF | -0.39 | -0.43 | -1.05 | -0.26 | -0.45 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.01 |
| 2019 | #42 | Drew Lock | OFF | -0.55 | -0.35 | -0.42 | -0.34 | -0.51 | -0.28 | -0.04 | -1.03 |
| 2013 | #90 | Kayvon Webster | DEF | +0.19 | -0.68 | -0.12 | -0.38 | -1.13 | -0.10 | -0.07 | -1.04 |
| 2020 | #95 | McTelvin Agim | DEF | -0.45 | -0.50 | -1.21 | -0.31 | — | -0.06 | -0.02 | -1.07 |
| 2017 | #172 | Isaiah McKenzie | OFF | -0.70 | -0.58 | -0.29 | -0.55 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | -1.14 |
| 2018 | #5 | Bradley Chubb | DEF | -0.70 | -0.52 | -0.94 | -0.66 | +0.29 | -0.05 | -0.57 | -1.22 |
| 2014 | #56 | Cody Latimer | OFF | +0.04 | -0.64 | -0.21 | -0.51 | -1.32 | -0.13 | -0.06 | -1.28 |
| 2016 | #26 | Paxton Lynch | OFF | -0.63 | -0.56 | -0.96 | -0.54 | — | -0.09 | -0.01 | -1.30 |
| 2015 | #59 | Ty Sambrailo | OFF | -0.97 | -0.91 | -0.58 | -0.74 | +0.09 | -0.22 | -0.12 | -1.31 |
| 2017 | #82 | Carlos Henderson | OFF | -0.83 | -0.48 | -1.41 | -0.42 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | -1.38 |
| 2020 | #46 | KJ Hamler | OFF | -0.50 | -0.59 | -1.31 | -0.46 | -0.55 | -0.17 | -0.07 | -1.42 |
| 2018 | #99 | Isaac Yiadom | DEF | -0.72 | -0.74 | -0.39 | -0.64 | -0.62 | -0.26 | -0.17 | -1.47 |
| 2016 | #63 | Adam Gotsis | DEF | -0.54 | -0.69 | -0.65 | -0.68 | -0.22 | -0.62 | -0.29 | -1.53 |
| 2014 | #95 | Michael Schofield | OFF | -1.08 | -0.68 | -0.71 | -0.83 | -0.74 | -0.48 | -0.30 | -2.00 |
| 2014 | #31 | Bradley Roby | DEF | -0.13 | -0.88 | +0.04 | -0.83 | -1.37 | -1.00 | -0.72 | -2.29 |
| 2017 | #51 | DeMarcus Walker | DEF | -0.90 | -1.22 | -1.44 | -0.95 | -0.63 | -0.55 | -0.24 | -2.38 |
| 2011 | #2 | Von Miller | DEF | -0.01 | +0.53 | -0.66 | +1.37 | +1.47 | -2.98 | -5.76 | -3.00 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.