Larry Wilson
ARI · Composite skill θ = -0.26 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.12 to +0.60
Evidence: 19 mapped picks across 2 draft classes, 1994–1995 · 100% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.09
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1994–1995ARIVP Player Personnel; HOF safety
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | #47 | Frank Sanders | OFF | +2.67 |
| 1994 | #115 | Terry Irving | DEF | +0.95 |
| 1994 | #139 | Anthony Redmon | OFF | +0.79 |
| 1995 | #167 | Tito Paul | DEF | +0.49 |
| 1994 | #172 | Terry Samuels | OFF | +0.32 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | #76 | Rich Braham | OFF | -4.79 |
| 1995 | #241 | Chad Eaton | DEF | -1.90 |
| 1994 | #38 | Chuck Levy | OFF | -1.02 |
| 1994 | #10 | Jamir Miller | DEF | -0.71 |
| 1995 | #80 | Stoney Case | OFF | -0.47 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 19 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1995 | #47 | Frank Sanders | OFF | +1.44 | +2.17 | — | +1.07 | — | -0.25 | -0.14 | +2.67 |
| 1994 | #115 | Terry Irving | DEF | +1.13 | +0.20 | — | +0.30 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.95 |
| 1994 | #139 | Anthony Redmon | OFF | +0.37 | +0.66 | — | +0.30 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.79 |
| 1995 | #167 | Tito Paul | DEF | +0.39 | +0.17 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.49 |
| 1994 | #172 | Terry Samuels | OFF | +0.08 | +0.14 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.32 |
| 1995 | #224 | Wesley Leasy | DEF | +0.34 | +0.00 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.24 |
| 1994 | #89 | Eric England | DEF | +0.34 | -0.15 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.08 |
| 1995 | #205 | Anthony Bridges | DEF | -0.29 | +0.04 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.04 |
| 1995 | #212 | Billy Williams | OFF | -0.27 | +0.07 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.06 |
| 1994 | #204 | Frank Harvey | OFF | -0.27 | +0.10 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| 1995 | #150 | Cedric Davis | DEF | -0.40 | -0.06 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.22 |
| 1994 | #113 | John Reece | DEF | -0.50 | -0.15 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 1995 | #165 | Lance Scott | OFF | -0.38 | -0.21 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.41 |
| 1994 | #107 | Perry Carter | DEF | -0.51 | -0.17 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 1995 | #80 | Stoney Case | OFF | -0.34 | -0.22 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.47 |
| 1994 | #10 | Jamir Miller | DEF | +0.12 | +0.03 | — | -0.48 | — | -0.36 | -0.26 | -0.71 |
| 1994 | #38 | Chuck Levy | OFF | -0.53 | -0.46 | — | -0.48 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.02 |
| 1995 | #241 | Chad Eaton | DEF | -1.27 | -0.80 | — | -0.82 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -1.90 |
| 1994 | #76 | Rich Braham | OFF | -2.37 | -2.01 | — | -2.02 | — | -0.68 | -0.49 | -4.79 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.