Kevin Colbert
PIT · Composite skill θ = +0.72 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval +0.04 to +1.41
Composite θ
+0.72
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
+0.04–+1.41
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
98%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Elite
interval excludes zero
Evidence: 183 mapped picks across 23 draft classes, 2000–2022 · 95% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.24
- maturity discount
- -0.04
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2000–2022PITRan 2022 draft; retired May 2022
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | #195 | Antonio Brown | OFF | +10.81 |
| 2011 | #31 | Cameron Heyward | DEF | +10.02 |
| 2003 | #16 | Troy Polamalu | DEF | +9.05 |
| 2010 | #18 | Maurkice Pouncey | OFF | +7.20 |
| 2012 | #24 | David DeCastro | OFF | +7.18 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | #8 | Plaxico Burress | OFF | -3.88 |
| 2009 | #226 | A.Q. Shipley | OFF | -3.42 |
| 2015 | #22 | Bud Dupree | DEF | -3.02 |
| 2013 | #223 | Nick Williams | DEF | -2.52 |
| 2008 | #130 | Tony Hills | OFF | -2.24 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 183 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2010 | #195 | Antonio Brown | OFF | +1.24 | +1.47 | +2.60 | +2.94 | +2.68 | +4.09 | +8.38 | +10.81 |
| 2011 | #31 | Cameron Heyward | DEF | +2.35 | +2.68 | +3.70 | +3.78 | +0.86 | +4.85 | +4.74 | +10.02 |
| 2003 | #16 | Troy Polamalu | DEF | +1.38 | +1.78 | -1.07 | +2.97 | -0.02 | +6.33 | +7.44 | +9.05 |
| 2010 | #18 | Maurkice Pouncey | OFF | +0.95 | +1.54 | -0.01 | +2.03 | +0.32 | +7.15 | +3.23 | +7.20 |
| 2012 | #24 | David DeCastro | OFF | +1.19 | +1.72 | +1.66 | +1.99 | +0.77 | +4.71 | +3.85 | +7.18 |
| 2001 | #19 | Casey Hampton | DEF | +1.79 | +2.48 | — | +2.07 | — | +4.50 | -0.55 | +6.17 |
| 2013 | #48 | Le'Veon Bell | OFF | -0.22 | +0.46 | +1.54 | +1.37 | +0.83 | +1.50 | +3.92 | +4.40 |
| 2017 | #30 | T.J. Watt | DEF | +1.29 | +2.10 | +1.69 | +3.48 | +2.68 | -1.11 | -0.72 | +3.85 |
| 2004 | #11 | Ben Roethlisberger | OFF | +2.32 | +3.40 | +0.08 | +5.13 | -0.58 | +0.50 | -1.22 | +3.84 |
| 2000 | #38 | Marvel Smith | OFF | +1.08 | +1.56 | — | +0.99 | — | +0.80 | -0.18 | +2.62 |
| 2005 | #30 | Heath Miller | OFF | +1.89 | +2.82 | +0.14 | +1.01 | -0.16 | +1.28 | -0.50 | +2.44 |
| 2002 | #242 | Brett Keisel | DEF | +1.80 | +1.72 | -0.31 | +1.54 | +0.26 | +0.97 | -0.10 | +2.40 |
| 2019 | #66 | Diontae Johnson | OFF | +0.73 | +1.08 | +1.32 | +0.88 | +0.65 | +0.90 | -0.09 | +2.21 |
| 2013 | #206 | Vince Williams | DEF | +1.79 | +1.19 | +1.25 | +1.06 | +0.62 | -0.07 | -0.06 | +2.18 |
| 2020 | #102 | Alex Highsmith | DEF | +1.05 | +1.45 | +1.21 | +1.05 | +0.64 | -0.14 | -0.08 | +1.98 |
| 2004 | #75 | Max Starks | OFF | +1.29 | +1.24 | — | +0.93 | — | -0.29 | -0.19 | +1.95 |
| 2005 | #204 | Chris Kemoeatu | OFF | +1.08 | +0.94 | — | +0.85 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.84 |
| 2014 | #46 | Stephon Tuitt | DEF | +0.90 | +1.23 | +1.61 | +1.05 | +0.30 | -0.17 | -0.07 | +1.80 |
| 2007 | #46 | LaMarr Woodley | DEF | +0.67 | +1.02 | -0.32 | +1.33 | +0.57 | +0.85 | -0.12 | +1.78 |
| 2010 | #52 | Jason Worilds | DEF | +0.97 | +0.53 | +1.31 | +0.66 | +0.79 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +1.64 |
| 2014 | #15 | Ryan Shazier | DEF | -0.08 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.22 | +1.06 | +2.03 | -0.10 | +1.63 |
| 2014 | #118 | Martavis Bryant | OFF | +0.23 | +0.15 | +0.53 | +0.54 | +2.10 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +1.59 |
| 2021 | #128 | Dan Moore | OFF | +0.77 | +1.20 | +1.51 | +0.83 | -0.02 | -0.07 | -0.04 | +1.51 |
| 2007 | #170 | William Gay | DEF | +2.18 | +1.18 | +0.96 | +0.70 | -0.30 | -0.17 | -0.16 | +1.48 |
| 2003 | #125 | Ike Taylor | DEF | +2.23 | +2.41 | -0.55 | +1.41 | -0.74 | -0.28 | -0.26 | +1.43 |
| 2021 | #55 | Pat Freiermuth | OFF | +0.79 | +0.47 | +0.53 | +0.63 | +1.26 | -0.17 | -0.06 | +1.42 |
| 2022 | #52 | George Pickens | OFF | +0.27 | +0.51 | +0.66 | +0.55 | +0.93 | -0.11 | -0.05 | +1.14 |
| 2021 | #24 | Najee Harris | OFF | +0.40 | +0.93 | +1.10 | +0.41 | -0.41 | +0.72 | -0.16 | +1.09 |
| 2011 | #63 | Marcus Gilbert | OFF | +0.74 | +1.23 | +0.58 | +0.78 | -0.10 | -0.23 | -0.13 | +1.01 |
| 2001 | #39 | Kendrell Bell | DEF | -0.12 | +0.27 | — | +0.45 | — | +0.98 | -0.08 | +0.98 |
| 2002 | #30 | Kendall Simmons | OFF | +0.49 | +0.88 | — | +0.49 | — | -0.23 | -0.14 | +0.98 |
| 2011 | #128 | Cortez Allen | DEF | +0.78 | +0.27 | +0.80 | +0.36 | +0.32 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.94 |
| 2002 | #128 | Larry Foote | DEF | +1.53 | +1.17 | -1.43 | +0.91 | — | -0.42 | -0.40 | +0.92 |
| 2005 | #62 | Bryant McFadden | DEF | +0.84 | +0.22 | — | +0.44 | — | -0.08 | -0.06 | +0.90 |
| 2007 | #112 | Daniel Sepulveda | ST | +0.70 | +0.11 | — | +0.47 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.85 |
| 2010 | #188 | Jonathan Dwyer | OFF | +0.43 | +0.15 | +1.12 | +0.27 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.83 |
| 2012 | #240 | David Paulson | OFF | +0.35 | +0.16 | +1.28 | +0.23 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.82 |
| 2016 | #58 | Sean Davis | DEF | +0.45 | +0.40 | +0.30 | +0.22 | +0.52 | -0.13 | -0.08 | +0.65 |
| 2013 | #115 | Landry Jones | OFF | +0.12 | +0.04 | -0.06 | +0.09 | +1.09 | -0.02 | +0.00 | +0.61 |
| 2002 | #202 | Lee Mays | OFF | +0.89 | +0.07 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.59 |
| 2007 | #15 | Lawrence Timmons | DEF | +1.48 | +1.41 | +0.52 | +1.54 | -0.12 | -1.40 | -1.14 | +0.58 |
| 2017 | #62 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | OFF | -0.20 | +0.11 | +0.36 | +0.21 | +0.67 | +0.42 | -0.34 | +0.57 |
| 2019 | #192 | Isaiah Buggs | DEF | +0.09 | -0.04 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +1.07 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.57 |
| 2022 | #138 | Calvin Austin III | OFF | +0.54 | +0.18 | +0.13 | +0.28 | +0.37 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.57 |
| 2008 | #23 | Rashard Mendenhall | OFF | +0.22 | +0.46 | — | +0.36 | — | -0.17 | -0.09 | +0.57 |
| 2010 | #166 | Stevenson Sylvester | DEF | +0.66 | -0.14 | +0.87 | +0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.55 |
| 2015 | #212 | Anthony Chickillo | DEF | +0.91 | -0.04 | +0.84 | +0.21 | -0.20 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.55 |
| 2009 | #84 | Mike Wallace | OFF | -0.17 | +0.09 | — | +0.31 | — | +0.73 | -0.21 | +0.53 |
| 2012 | #56 | Mike Adams | OFF | +0.16 | -0.15 | +0.41 | -0.06 | +0.68 | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.41 |
| 2015 | #199 | Leterrius Walton | DEF | +0.38 | -0.02 | -0.09 | +0.09 | +0.53 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.39 |
| 2022 | #208 | Connor Heyward | OFF | +1.11 | +0.19 | +0.55 | +0.21 | -0.71 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.35 |
| 2006 | #131 | Willie Colon | OFF | -0.05 | +0.46 | — | +0.20 | — | -0.18 | -0.13 | +0.26 |
| 2008 | #194 | Ryan Mundy | DEF | +0.76 | -0.26 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.26 |
| 2009 | #241 | David Johnson | OFF | +0.67 | +0.29 | +0.32 | -0.17 | -0.12 | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.26 |
| 2021 | #254 | Pressley Harvin III | ST | +0.55 | +0.10 | -0.50 | +0.29 | +0.10 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.23 |
| 2022 | #241 | Chris Oladokun | OFF | -0.11 | +0.09 | +0.63 | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.23 |
| 2000 | #163 | Tee Martin | OFF | -0.02 | +0.16 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.21 |
| 2013 | #79 | Markus Wheaton | OFF | +0.20 | +0.03 | +0.38 | +0.06 | +0.09 | -0.08 | -0.04 | +0.21 |
| 2008 | #156 | Dennis Dixon | OFF | -0.04 | +0.16 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 |
| 2015 | #160 | Jesse James | OFF | +0.12 | +0.19 | +0.97 | -0.06 | -0.25 | -0.13 | -0.07 | +0.18 |
| 2001 | #181 | Rodney Bailey | DEF | +0.72 | -0.31 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.18 |
| 2005 | #93 | Trai Essex | OFF | +0.59 | -0.20 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.11 | -0.07 | +0.17 |
| 2020 | #49 | Chase Claypool | OFF | -0.09 | +0.02 | +0.06 | +0.13 | +0.47 | -0.16 | -0.07 | +0.17 |
| 2002 | #62 | Antwaan Randle El | OFF | +0.45 | -0.44 | — | +0.32 | — | -0.22 | -0.13 | +0.16 |
| 2001 | #146 | Chukky Okobi | OFF | +1.04 | -0.41 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.15 |
| 2006 | #83 | Anthony Smith | DEF | +0.29 | -0.09 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.11 |
| 2006 | #164 | Omar Jacobs | OFF | -0.09 | +0.12 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.11 |
| 2018 | #165 | Jaylen Samuels | OFF | +0.32 | -0.11 | +0.32 | +0.28 | -0.38 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.10 |
| 2004 | #194 | Matt Kranchick | OFF | -0.24 | -0.02 | — | +0.23 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.09 |
| 2018 | #60 | James Washington | OFF | +0.52 | +0.08 | +0.46 | -0.02 | -0.35 | -0.11 | -0.05 | +0.09 |
| 2000 | #204 | Jason Gavadza | OFF | -0.34 | -0.01 | — | +0.26 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 |
| 2016 | #89 | Javon Hargrave | DEF | -0.30 | +0.10 | -0.30 | -0.05 | +1.17 | -0.45 | -0.22 | +0.07 |
| 2017 | #94 | Cameron Sutton | DEF | +0.84 | +0.15 | +0.63 | -0.06 | -0.55 | -0.24 | -0.16 | +0.03 |
| 2000 | #173 | Chris Combs | DEF | -0.15 | +0.01 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| 2021 | #156 | Isaiahh Loudermilk | DEF | +0.71 | -0.16 | -0.46 | +0.02 | -0.02 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.00 |
| 2014 | #215 | Daniel McCullers | DEF | +0.93 | -0.36 | -0.94 | -0.08 | +0.38 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.01 |
| 2005 | #228 | Shaun Nua | DEF | -0.28 | +0.06 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.02 |
| 2005 | #244 | Noah Herron | OFF | -0.24 | +0.12 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| 2007 | #227 | Dallas Baker | OFF | -0.11 | +0.03 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| 2003 | #242 | J.T. Wall | OFF | -0.27 | +0.14 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| 2004 | #212 | Eric Taylor | DEF | -0.30 | +0.05 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.04 |
| 2012 | #86 | Sean Spence | DEF | -0.14 | -0.15 | +0.32 | -0.10 | +0.12 | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.04 |
| 2011 | #232 | Baron Batch | OFF | -0.10 | +0.03 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.04 |
| 2002 | #212 | LaVar Glover | DEF | -0.29 | +0.04 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 2018 | #92 | Chukwuma Okorafor | OFF | +0.42 | +0.44 | +0.08 | +0.15 | -0.36 | -0.33 | -0.18 | -0.05 |
| 2017 | #213 | Colin Holba | ST | -0.54 | +0.15 | -0.24 | +0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.06 |
| 2011 | #95 | Curtis Brown | DEF | +0.16 | -0.33 | +0.40 | -0.12 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.06 |
| 2001 | #218 | Chris Taylor | OFF | -0.26 | +0.07 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.06 |
| 2006 | #240 | Cedric Humes | OFF | -0.30 | +0.11 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.08 |
| 2018 | #148 | Marcus Allen | DEF | +0.48 | -0.24 | -0.47 | +0.04 | +0.02 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.08 |
| 2009 | #168 | Joe Burnett | DEF | -0.09 | -0.11 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.09 |
| 2015 | #87 | Sammie Coates | OFF | -0.28 | -0.28 | -0.16 | -0.18 | +0.55 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.09 |
| 2022 | #225 | Mark Robinson | DEF | +0.42 | -0.09 | -0.35 | -0.02 | -0.16 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 2006 | #167 | Charles Davis | OFF | -0.46 | -0.11 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| 2013 | #17 | Jarvis Jones | DEF | +0.05 | -0.04 | -0.26 | -0.16 | +0.30 | -0.13 | -0.08 | -0.12 |
| 2020 | #135 | Kevin Dotson | OFF | -0.03 | +0.07 | +0.29 | -0.08 | -0.27 | -0.10 | -0.05 | -0.14 |
| 2005 | #166 | Rian Wallace | DEF | -0.10 | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.15 |
| 2009 | #96 | Keenan Lewis | DEF | +0.06 | -0.17 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.07 | -0.05 | -0.15 |
| 2009 | #205 | Ra'Shon Harris | DEF | -0.37 | -0.02 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.18 |
| 2012 | #246 | Terrence Frederick | DEF | -0.37 | -0.04 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 2017 | #105 | James Conner | OFF | -0.40 | -0.16 | +0.01 | -0.17 | -0.14 | +0.58 | -0.29 | -0.20 |
| 2002 | #166 | Verron Haynes | OFF | +0.47 | -0.51 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.24 |
| 2019 | #122 | Benny Snell Jr. | OFF | +0.73 | -0.21 | +0.38 | -0.01 | -0.95 | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.24 |
| 2012 | #159 | Chris Rainey | OFF | -0.15 | -0.11 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.26 |
| 2004 | #145 | Nathaniel Adibi | DEF | -0.43 | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.27 |
| 2012 | #231 | Toney Clemons | OFF | -0.38 | -0.04 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 2017 | #248 | Keion Adams | DEF | -0.56 | -0.21 | +0.56 | -0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| 2019 | #141 | Zach Gentry | OFF | +0.20 | +0.32 | -0.07 | +0.00 | -0.83 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.30 |
| 2016 | #220 | Travis Feeney | DEF | -0.58 | -0.22 | +0.55 | -0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 2014 | #230 | Rob Blanchflower | OFF | -0.48 | -0.14 | -0.71 | +0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
| 2022 | #84 | DeMarvin Leal | DEF | +0.00 | -0.26 | -1.08 | -0.16 | +0.50 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.31 |
| 2001 | #182 | Roger Knight | DEF | -0.42 | -0.08 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.32 |
| 2014 | #173 | Wesley Johnson | OFF | -0.54 | -0.36 | +0.72 | -0.24 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.32 |
| 2006 | #25 | Santonio Holmes | OFF | -0.26 | -0.09 | — | +0.24 | — | -0.49 | -0.28 | -0.33 |
| 2013 | #186 | Justin Brown | OFF | -0.28 | -0.10 | -0.39 | -0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 2004 | #197 | Drew Caylor | OFF | -0.34 | -0.18 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 2017 | #173 | Brian Allen | DEF | -0.22 | -0.25 | -0.21 | -0.11 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.35 |
| 2006 | #133 | Orien Harris | DEF | -0.48 | -0.12 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.36 |
| 2018 | #28 | Terrell Edmunds | DEF | +0.31 | +0.65 | +0.52 | -0.05 | -0.52 | -0.71 | -0.45 | -0.37 |
| 2006 | #201 | Marvin Philip | OFF | -0.36 | -0.19 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 2007 | #132 | Ryan McBean | DEF | -0.47 | -0.14 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 2005 | #131 | Fred Gibson | OFF | -0.47 | -0.12 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.41 |
| 2004 | #177 | Bo Lacy | OFF | -0.38 | -0.21 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 2008 | #188 | Mike Humpal | DEF | -0.48 | -0.13 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 2021 | #245 | Tre Norwood | DEF | +0.18 | -0.08 | -0.59 | -0.04 | -0.45 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.43 |
| 2013 | #111 | Shamarko Thomas | DEF | +0.31 | -0.43 | -0.36 | -0.18 | -0.29 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.44 |
| 2000 | #137 | Clark Haggans | DEF | +0.33 | -0.02 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.37 | -0.35 | -0.45 |
| 2015 | #239 | Gerod Holliman | DEF | -0.44 | -0.10 | -0.70 | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| 2010 | #242 | Doug Worthington | DEF | -0.52 | -0.16 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 2022 | #20 | Kenny Pickett | OFF | -0.16 | -0.08 | +0.03 | -0.15 | -0.50 | -0.12 | -0.02 | -0.47 |
| 2016 | #229 | Demarcus Ayers | OFF | -0.42 | -0.09 | -0.55 | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 2000 | #103 | Danny Farmer | OFF | -0.51 | -0.17 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 2006 | #95 | Willie Reid | OFF | -0.41 | -0.24 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.51 |
| 2011 | #196 | Keith Williams | OFF | -0.44 | -0.27 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.52 |
| 2011 | #162 | Chris Carter | DEF | -0.27 | -0.46 | +0.32 | -0.35 | — | -0.05 | -0.04 | -0.54 |
| 2007 | #156 | Cameron Stephenson | OFF | -0.46 | -0.29 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.55 |
| 2010 | #116 | Thaddeus Gibson | DEF | -0.58 | -0.22 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.55 |
| 2018 | #246 | Joshua Frazier | DEF | -0.49 | -0.14 | -0.69 | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.55 |
| 2019 | #207 | Ulysees Gilbert | DEF | +0.00 | -0.31 | -0.38 | -0.20 | -0.42 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.57 |
| 2020 | #232 | Carlos Davis | DEF | -0.28 | -0.21 | -0.88 | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.59 |
| 2001 | #111 | Mathias Nkwenti | OFF | -0.46 | -0.35 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.64 |
| 2013 | #150 | Terry Hawthorne | DEF | -0.56 | -0.21 | -0.73 | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.64 |
| 2014 | #157 | Shaquille Richardson | DEF | -0.57 | -0.21 | -0.75 | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.65 |
| 2012 | #109 | Alameda Ta'amu | DEF | -0.63 | -0.27 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.66 |
| 2021 | #87 | Kendrick Green | OFF | -0.58 | -0.34 | +0.02 | -0.37 | -0.21 | -0.11 | -0.05 | -0.67 |
| 2009 | #169 | Frank Summers | OFF | -0.62 | -0.19 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.68 |
| 2014 | #192 | Jordan Zumwalt | DEF | -0.58 | -0.22 | -0.82 | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.75 |
| 2008 | #53 | Limas Sweed | OFF | -0.28 | -0.47 | — | -0.36 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.76 |
| 2016 | #123 | Jerald Hawkins | OFF | -0.27 | -0.49 | -0.57 | -0.29 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.76 |
| 2019 | #83 | Justin Layne | DEF | +0.15 | -0.54 | -0.82 | -0.28 | -0.34 | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.77 |
| 2020 | #198 | Antoine Brooks Jr. | DEF | -0.54 | -0.28 | -0.86 | -0.20 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.79 |
| 2019 | #175 | Sutton Smith | DEF | -0.64 | -0.27 | -0.86 | -0.20 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.81 |
| 2021 | #216 | Quincy Roche | DEF | -0.63 | -0.26 | -0.93 | -0.20 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.82 |
| 2008 | #88 | Bruce Davis | DEF | -0.60 | -0.38 | — | -0.32 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.83 |
| 2014 | #97 | Dri Archer | OFF | -0.22 | -0.36 | -0.96 | -0.31 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.85 |
| 2003 | #59 | Alonzo Jackson | DEF | -0.56 | -0.47 | — | -0.35 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.89 |
| 2015 | #121 | Doran Grant | DEF | -0.60 | -0.32 | -1.04 | -0.21 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.89 |
| 2019 | #219 | Derwin Gray | OFF | -0.46 | -0.40 | -0.90 | -0.29 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.90 |
| 2003 | #163 | Brian St. Pierre | OFF | -0.65 | -0.39 | — | -0.40 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.94 |
| 2004 | #38 | Ricardo Colclough | DEF | -0.13 | -0.73 | — | -0.50 | — | -0.07 | -0.05 | -0.99 |
| 2021 | #140 | Buddy Johnson | DEF | -0.77 | -0.49 | -0.41 | -0.43 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -1.04 |
| 2010 | #164 | Crezdon Butler | DEF | -0.78 | -0.48 | — | -0.38 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -1.05 |
| 2009 | #32 | Evander Hood | DEF | +0.01 | -0.29 | -0.58 | -0.18 | -0.61 | -0.54 | -0.26 | -1.08 |
| 2020 | #124 | Anthony McFarland Jr. | OFF | -0.40 | -0.37 | -1.42 | -0.34 | — | -0.09 | -0.04 | -1.13 |
| 2016 | #246 | Tyler Matakevich | DEF | +0.44 | -0.89 | -0.49 | -0.65 | -0.90 | -0.12 | -0.10 | -1.19 |
| 2002 | #94 | Chris Hope | DEF | -0.33 | -0.47 | — | -0.56 | — | -0.27 | -0.23 | -1.21 |
| 2018 | #76 | Mason Rudolph | OFF | -0.53 | -0.50 | -1.31 | -0.49 | -0.33 | -0.24 | -0.04 | -1.33 |
| 2007 | #77 | Matt Spaeth | OFF | +0.69 | +0.44 | -0.60 | -0.70 | -2.05 | -0.23 | -0.12 | -1.36 |
| 2010 | #151 | Chris Scott | OFF | -0.86 | -0.69 | — | -0.55 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.37 |
| 2015 | #56 | Senquez Golson | DEF | -0.89 | -0.58 | -1.45 | -0.45 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -1.48 |
| 2019 | #10 | Devin Bush Jr. | DEF | -0.50 | -0.32 | -0.45 | -0.55 | -0.28 | -0.93 | -0.60 | -1.60 |
| 2000 | #72 | Kendrick Clancy | DEF | -0.40 | -1.10 | — | -0.80 | — | -0.19 | -0.10 | -1.70 |
| 2012 | #248 | Kelvin Beachum | OFF | -1.30 | -0.90 | -0.13 | -1.26 | -0.12 | -0.41 | -0.40 | -1.88 |
| 2017 | #135 | Joshua Dobbs | OFF | -1.04 | -0.86 | -0.87 | -0.86 | — | -0.18 | -0.03 | -1.89 |
| 2010 | #82 | Emmanuel Sanders | OFF | -0.83 | -1.18 | -0.63 | -0.98 | +0.05 | -0.80 | -0.52 | -2.00 |
| 2000 | #77 | Hank Poteat | DEF | -0.66 | -1.21 | — | -0.91 | — | -0.21 | -0.17 | -2.03 |
| 2016 | #25 | Artie Burns | DEF | -0.50 | -0.72 | -0.49 | -0.82 | -0.73 | -0.94 | -0.63 | -2.12 |
| 2009 | #79 | Kraig Urbik | OFF | -1.30 | -1.08 | — | -0.91 | — | -0.16 | -0.10 | -2.23 |
| 2008 | #130 | Tony Hills | OFF | -1.26 | -1.08 | — | -0.96 | — | -0.14 | -0.09 | -2.24 |
| 2013 | #223 | Nick Williams | DEF | -1.68 | -1.18 | -0.71 | -1.20 | — | -0.16 | -0.10 | -2.52 |
| 2015 | #22 | Bud Dupree | DEF | -0.47 | -0.27 | -0.27 | -0.59 | -0.80 | -2.29 | -1.68 | -3.02 |
| 2009 | #226 | A.Q. Shipley | OFF | -1.86 | -1.53 | — | -1.53 | — | -0.21 | -0.19 | -3.42 |
| 2000 | #8 | Plaxico Burress | OFF | -0.92 | -0.59 | — | -0.91 | — | -2.54 | -1.91 | -3.88 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.