Rick Smith
HOU · Composite skill θ = -0.34 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.81 to +0.12
Composite θ
-0.34
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-0.81–+0.12
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
7%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Terrible
maturity-adjusted direction probability > 80%
Evidence: 93 mapped picks across 12 draft classes, 2006–2017 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.37
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2006–2017HOU
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | #27 | DeAndre Hopkins | OFF | +3.33 |
| 2017 | #12 | Deshaun Watson | OFF | +2.37 |
| 2006 | #98 | Owen Daniels | OFF | +2.32 |
| 2012 | #126 | Jared Crick | DEF | +2.13 |
| 2015 | #43 | Benardrick McKinney | DEF | +2.10 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | #20 | Kareem Jackson | DEF | -4.75 |
| 2013 | #176 | David Quessenberry | OFF | -4.24 |
| 2014 | #1 | Jadeveon Clowney | DEF | -3.97 |
| 2008 | #26 | Duane Brown | OFF | -3.05 |
| 2010 | #144 | Sherrick McManis | DEF | -2.68 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 93 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2013 | #27 | DeAndre Hopkins | OFF | -0.07 | +0.73 | +1.86 | +0.53 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +4.40 | +3.33 |
| 2017 | #12 | Deshaun Watson | OFF | -0.18 | +0.00 | +0.32 | +0.95 | +1.19 | +2.61 | -0.12 | +2.37 |
| 2006 | #98 | Owen Daniels | OFF | +0.75 | +1.45 | -0.55 | +0.87 | — | +1.93 | -0.14 | +2.32 |
| 2012 | #126 | Jared Crick | DEF | +0.94 | +0.66 | +1.60 | +0.82 | +1.32 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +2.13 |
| 2015 | #43 | Benardrick McKinney | DEF | +0.51 | +1.03 | +0.85 | +1.02 | +0.94 | +0.82 | -0.17 | +2.10 |
| 2014 | #216 | Andre Hal | DEF | +1.22 | +1.00 | +1.66 | +0.74 | +0.85 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +2.08 |
| 2011 | #11 | J.J. Watt | DEF | +0.52 | +1.21 | +0.83 | +2.96 | +1.91 | -2.10 | -1.20 | +1.64 |
| 2011 | #214 | Derek Newton | OFF | +0.97 | +1.11 | +1.47 | +0.64 | -0.03 | -0.06 | -0.04 | +1.44 |
| 2014 | #181 | Alfred Blue | OFF | +1.23 | +0.34 | +2.16 | +0.68 | -0.24 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.44 |
| 2006 | #33 | DeMeco Ryans | DEF | +0.10 | +0.77 | — | +0.40 | — | +1.58 | -0.46 | +1.39 |
| 2008 | #89 | Steve Slaton | OFF | +0.36 | +0.48 | — | +0.66 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +1.05 |
| 2012 | #26 | Whitney Mercilus | DEF | +1.22 | +1.14 | +1.02 | +0.93 | +0.04 | -0.77 | -0.37 | +1.05 |
| 2009 | #15 | Brian Cushing | DEF | +0.59 | +1.17 | -0.37 | +0.96 | +0.03 | +0.36 | -0.55 | +0.87 |
| 2006 | #251 | David Anderson | OFF | +1.08 | +0.18 | — | +0.19 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.81 |
| 2007 | #123 | Fred Bennett | DEF | +0.44 | +0.29 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.58 |
| 2009 | #223 | Troy Nolan | DEF | +0.47 | +0.18 | — | +0.26 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.57 |
| 2008 | #173 | Dominique Barber | DEF | +0.52 | +0.11 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.51 |
| 2010 | #118 | Garrett Graham | OFF | +0.63 | +0.41 | +0.90 | +0.18 | -0.37 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.51 |
| 2017 | #130 | Julién Davenport | OFF | -0.05 | +0.00 | +0.74 | +0.06 | +0.50 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.48 |
| 2010 | #102 | Darryl Sharpton | DEF | +0.31 | +0.17 | +0.92 | +0.14 | -0.19 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.42 |
| 2007 | #183 | Kasey Studdard | OFF | +0.20 | +0.15 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.39 |
| 2014 | #211 | Jay Prosch | OFF | +1.05 | +0.30 | +0.76 | -0.12 | -0.47 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.39 |
| 2011 | #144 | Shiloh Keo | DEF | +0.28 | -0.06 | +1.00 | +0.01 | -0.03 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.37 |
| 2009 | #152 | James Casey | OFF | +0.55 | +0.02 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.33 |
| 2010 | #58 | Ben Tate | OFF | +0.17 | -0.17 | +0.63 | +0.15 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.31 |
| 2007 | #218 | Zach Diles | DEF | +0.22 | +0.22 | +0.27 | +0.07 | — | -0.04 | -0.04 | +0.27 |
| 2011 | #152 | T.J. Yates | OFF | -0.08 | -0.05 | +0.33 | -0.06 | +0.49 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.27 |
| 2016 | #166 | D.J. Reader | DEF | -0.15 | +0.31 | +0.42 | -0.05 | +0.49 | -0.22 | -0.12 | +0.24 |
| 2008 | #223 | Alex Brink | OFF | -0.01 | +0.19 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.24 |
| 2006 | #170 | Wali Lundy | OFF | -0.09 | +0.22 | — | +0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.22 |
| 2009 | #77 | Antoine Caldwell | OFF | +0.24 | -0.02 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.21 |
| 2016 | #21 | Will Fuller | OFF | -0.01 | +0.35 | +0.33 | +0.12 | +0.28 | -0.29 | -0.14 | +0.20 |
| 2007 | #10 | Amobi Okoye | DEF | +0.28 | +0.46 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.13 | -0.06 | +0.20 |
| 2016 | #50 | Nick Martin | OFF | +0.15 | +0.54 | +0.44 | +0.28 | -0.28 | -0.28 | -0.14 | +0.17 |
| 2014 | #65 | C.J. Fiedorowicz | OFF | +0.36 | +0.61 | +0.33 | +0.05 | -0.69 | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.06 |
| 2012 | #121 | Keshawn Martin | OFF | +0.57 | -0.19 | +0.82 | -0.03 | -0.68 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.02 |
| 2014 | #135 | Tom Savage | OFF | +0.03 | +0.18 | +0.16 | +0.07 | -0.24 | -0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| 2007 | #144 | Brandon Harrison | DEF | -0.11 | +0.04 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.00 |
| 2008 | #118 | Xavier Adibi | DEF | +0.19 | -0.06 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.02 |
| 2015 | #216 | Christian Covington | DEF | +0.14 | -0.40 | +0.07 | -0.20 | +0.23 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.09 |
| 2011 | #254 | Cheta Ozougwu | DEF | -0.32 | +0.02 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.12 |
| 2009 | #112 | Glover Quin | DEF | -0.10 | +0.50 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.22 | -0.18 | -0.12 |
| 2010 | #227 | Dorin Dickerson | OFF | -0.18 | -0.01 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| 2008 | #151 | Frank Okam | DEF | -0.15 | -0.10 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| 2013 | #198 | Chris Jones | DEF | -0.45 | -0.10 | +0.22 | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| 2006 | #66 | Eric Winston | OFF | +0.02 | +0.51 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.73 | -0.52 | -0.18 |
| 2010 | #197 | Trindon Holliday | OFF | -0.25 | -0.05 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 2014 | #177 | Jeoffrey Pagan | DEF | +0.02 | -0.15 | -0.50 | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 2008 | #79 | Antwaun Molden | DEF | +0.10 | -0.35 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.28 |
| 2014 | #256 | Lonnie Ballentine | DEF | -0.30 | -0.06 | -0.49 | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 2013 | #201 | Ryan Griffin | OFF | +0.31 | -0.08 | +0.61 | -0.34 | -0.56 | -0.18 | -0.11 | -0.31 |
| 2009 | #122 | Anthony Hill | OFF | -0.48 | -0.25 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 2011 | #60 | Brandon Harris | DEF | -0.04 | -0.49 | +0.38 | -0.27 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.36 |
| 2007 | #73 | Jacoby Jones | OFF | +0.33 | -0.49 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.24 | -0.14 | -0.37 |
| 2017 | #57 | Zach Cunningham | DEF | -0.09 | +0.41 | +0.52 | +0.06 | -0.38 | -0.71 | -0.46 | -0.46 |
| 2015 | #175 | Keith Mumphery | OFF | +0.12 | -0.02 | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.84 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 2012 | #68 | DeVier Posey | OFF | -0.13 | -0.41 | +0.11 | -0.29 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.48 |
| 2011 | #127 | Roc Carmichael | DEF | -0.43 | -0.23 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 2013 | #195 | Alan Bonner | OFF | -0.46 | -0.11 | -0.57 | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 2015 | #235 | Kenny Hilliard | OFF | -0.46 | -0.04 | -0.58 | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 2010 | #187 | Shelley Smith | OFF | -0.44 | -0.27 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.52 |
| 2007 | #163 | Brandon Frye | OFF | -0.44 | -0.27 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.53 |
| 2012 | #195 | Nick Mondek | OFF | -0.46 | -0.29 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.56 |
| 2017 | #169 | Treston Decoud | DEF | -0.37 | -0.25 | -0.68 | -0.12 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.58 |
| 2015 | #211 | Reshard Cliett | DEF | -0.57 | -0.21 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.60 |
| 2017 | #243 | Kyle Fuller | OFF | -0.47 | -0.44 | +0.23 | -0.34 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.60 |
| 2013 | #124 | Trevardo Williams | DEF | -0.61 | -0.25 | -0.55 | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.66 |
| 2016 | #159 | K.J. Dillon | DEF | -0.49 | -0.25 | -1.09 | -0.16 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.79 |
| 2010 | #81 | Earl Mitchell | DEF | -0.20 | -0.79 | -0.18 | -0.67 | +0.16 | -0.28 | -0.14 | -0.86 |
| 2009 | #188 | Brice McCain | DEF | +0.51 | -0.52 | +0.42 | -0.38 | -1.49 | -0.08 | -0.07 | -0.86 |
| 2016 | #119 | Tyler Ervin | OFF | -0.12 | -0.28 | +0.02 | -0.30 | -1.13 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.89 |
| 2017 | #142 | Carlos Watkins | DEF | -0.47 | -0.51 | -0.50 | -0.50 | -0.05 | -0.20 | -0.10 | -0.92 |
| 2013 | #95 | Sam Montgomery | DEF | -0.69 | -0.34 | -1.11 | -0.24 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.97 |
| 2006 | #65 | Charles Spencer | OFF | -0.66 | -0.52 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.99 |
| 2013 | #57 | D.J. Swearinger | DEF | -0.68 | -0.47 | +0.21 | -0.54 | -0.47 | -0.25 | -0.17 | -1.02 |
| 2014 | #83 | Louis Nix | DEF | -0.75 | -0.40 | -0.92 | -0.30 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -1.02 |
| 2016 | #85 | Braxton Miller | OFF | -0.28 | -0.19 | -0.65 | -0.30 | -1.05 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -1.10 |
| 2015 | #70 | Jaelen Strong | OFF | -0.36 | -0.41 | -0.87 | -0.34 | -0.70 | -0.07 | -0.03 | -1.11 |
| 2013 | #89 | Brennan Williams | OFF | -0.73 | -0.57 | -1.10 | -0.41 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.24 |
| 2011 | #42 | Brooks Reed | DEF | -0.55 | -0.16 | -0.20 | -0.41 | -0.25 | -0.73 | -0.53 | -1.26 |
| 2014 | #33 | Xavier Su'a-Filo | OFF | -0.25 | -0.33 | -0.12 | -0.49 | -0.95 | -0.49 | -0.27 | -1.33 |
| 2012 | #76 | Brandon Brooks | OFF | -0.59 | -0.30 | +0.27 | -0.56 | -1.01 | -0.49 | -0.31 | -1.39 |
| 2009 | #46 | Connor Barwin | DEF | -0.67 | -0.56 | — | -0.58 | — | -0.42 | -0.21 | -1.50 |
| 2012 | #99 | Ben Jones | OFF | -0.40 | -0.44 | -0.03 | -0.62 | -0.90 | -0.55 | -0.37 | -1.51 |
| 2006 | #1 | Mario Williams | DEF | -0.26 | -0.10 | — | -0.79 | — | +0.35 | -1.49 | -1.54 |
| 2015 | #16 | Kevin Johnson | DEF | -0.48 | -0.67 | -0.36 | -0.69 | -1.14 | -0.25 | -0.16 | -1.62 |
| 2017 | #89 | D'Onta Foreman | OFF | -1.18 | -0.91 | -1.05 | -0.85 | — | -0.39 | -0.21 | -2.19 |
| 2012 | #161 | Randy Bullock | ST | -1.19 | -1.17 | -0.58 | -1.06 | — | -0.40 | -0.42 | -2.45 |
| 2010 | #144 | Sherrick McManis | DEF | -1.24 | -1.30 | — | -1.17 | — | -0.26 | -0.23 | -2.68 |
| 2008 | #26 | Duane Brown | OFF | -0.22 | +0.56 | -1.39 | +0.11 | -1.03 | -3.10 | -1.38 | -3.05 |
| 2014 | #1 | Jadeveon Clowney | DEF | -1.11 | -1.18 | -1.20 | -1.33 | +0.96 | -1.49 | -3.78 | -3.97 |
| 2013 | #176 | David Quessenberry | OFF | -2.22 | -1.88 | -1.32 | -1.91 | — | -0.57 | -0.47 | -4.24 |
| 2010 | #20 | Kareem Jackson | DEF | +0.00 | +0.61 | -1.04 | -0.87 | -0.68 | -3.91 | -3.75 | -4.75 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.