Eliot Wolf
NE · Composite skill θ = +0.09 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.75 to +1.93
Evidence: 19 mapped picks across 2 draft classes, 2024–2025 · 18% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.45
- maturity discount
- -0.40
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2024–2025NEEVP Player Personnel post-Belichick; with Mayo HC 2024 then Vrabel HC 2025
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | #3 | Drake Maye | OFF | +1.79 |
| 2025 | #95 | Jared Wilson | OFF | +1.20 |
| 2025 | #182 | Andres Borregales | ST | +1.09 |
| 2025 | #251 | Julian Ashby | ST | +1.05 |
| 2025 | #106 | Craig Woodson | ST | +0.94 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | #68 | Caedan Wallace | OFF | -0.78 |
| 2025 | #4 | Will Campbell | OFF | -0.54 |
| 2024 | #37 | Ja'Lynn Polk | OFF | -0.46 |
| 2025 | #69 | Kyle Williams | OFF | -0.19 |
| 2024 | #110 | Javon Baker | OFF | +0.06 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 19 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2024 | #3 | Drake Maye | OFF | +0.13 | -0.13 | +0.07 | -0.04 | +1.49 | +2.11 | -0.01 | +1.79 |
| 2025 | #95 | Jared Wilson | OFF | -0.01 | +0.15 | +0.32 | +0.13 | +1.99 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.20 |
| 2025 | #182 | Andres Borregales | ST | +0.29 | +0.51 | +0.94 | +0.51 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +1.09 |
| 2025 | #251 | Julian Ashby | ST | +0.41 | +0.61 | — | +0.54 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.05 |
| 2025 | #106 | Craig Woodson | ST | +0.12 | +0.42 | +0.41 | +0.27 | +0.99 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.94 |
| 2024 | #231 | Jaheim Bell | OFF | +0.33 | +0.25 | +0.63 | +0.40 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.80 |
| 2024 | #103 | Layden Robinson | OFF | +0.05 | +0.15 | +0.44 | +0.05 | +0.84 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.65 |
| 2024 | #180 | Marcellas Dial | DEF | +0.33 | +0.24 | +0.65 | +0.22 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.63 |
| 2024 | #193 | Joe Milton | OFF | +0.13 | +0.28 | +0.61 | +0.23 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.57 |
| 2025 | #257 | Kobee Minor | DEF | +0.11 | +0.29 | +0.56 | +0.23 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.55 |
| 2025 | #137 | Joshua Farmer | DEF | +0.12 | +0.20 | +0.25 | +0.20 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.39 |
| 2025 | #220 | Marcus Bryant | OFF | +0.24 | +0.06 | +0.48 | +0.09 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.35 |
| 2025 | #38 | TreVeyon Henderson | OFF | -0.16 | -0.17 | -0.22 | -0.04 | +1.00 | -0.04 | -0.01 | +0.27 |
| 2025 | #146 | Bradyn Swinson | DEF | -0.10 | +0.14 | +0.11 | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.14 |
| 2024 | #110 | Javon Baker | OFF | +0.04 | +0.09 | +0.11 | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| 2025 | #69 | Kyle Williams | OFF | +0.02 | -0.13 | -0.15 | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 2024 | #37 | Ja'Lynn Polk | OFF | -0.14 | -0.11 | -0.13 | -0.31 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| 2025 | #4 | Will Campbell | OFF | -0.49 | -0.79 | -0.46 | -0.91 | +1.12 | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.54 |
| 2024 | #68 | Caedan Wallace | OFF | -0.32 | -0.39 | -0.64 | -0.31 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.78 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.