Tom Coughlin
JAX · Composite skill θ = +0.18 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.40 to +0.77
Evidence: 76 mapped picks across 8 draft classes, 1995–2002 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.13
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1995–2002JAXHC + EVP Football Ops; de facto GM with Michael Huyghue as SVP
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | #2 | Tony Boselli | OFF | +6.16 |
| 2002 | #108 | David Garrard | OFF | +4.08 |
| 2002 | #9 | John Henderson | DEF | +3.06 |
| 1996 | #33 | Tony Brackens | DEF | +2.97 |
| 2001 | #13 | Marcus Stroud | DEF | +2.50 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 | #21 | Renaldo Wynn | DEF | -2.54 |
| 1995 | #172 | Marcus Price | OFF | -2.40 |
| 1997 | #50 | Mike Logan | DEF | -2.05 |
| 1996 | #185 | Chris Doering | OFF | -1.68 |
| 1995 | #99 | Rob Johnson | OFF | -1.46 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 76 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1995 | #2 | Tony Boselli | OFF | +0.80 | +0.74 | — | +1.35 | — | +1.87 | +6.20 | +6.16 |
| 2002 | #108 | David Garrard | OFF | +1.07 | +1.39 | — | +2.35 | — | +1.02 | -0.02 | +4.08 |
| 2002 | #9 | John Henderson | DEF | +0.97 | +1.44 | — | +1.27 | — | +1.52 | -0.37 | +3.06 |
| 1996 | #33 | Tony Brackens | DEF | +1.19 | +1.00 | — | +1.43 | — | +0.95 | -0.07 | +2.97 |
| 2001 | #13 | Marcus Stroud | DEF | +0.43 | +0.55 | — | +0.80 | — | +2.71 | -0.30 | +2.50 |
| 2000 | #241 | Rob Meier | DEF | +2.30 | +0.74 | — | +0.93 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +2.43 |
| 2001 | #43 | Maurice Williams | OFF | +0.96 | +1.37 | — | +1.12 | — | -0.28 | -0.17 | +2.05 |
| 1998 | #25 | Donovin Darius | DEF | +0.89 | +1.60 | — | +0.78 | — | -0.47 | -0.36 | +1.60 |
| 1995 | #64 | Bryan Schwartz | DEF | +0.60 | +0.69 | — | +0.52 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.14 |
| 1996 | #2 | Kevin Hardy | DEF | +0.18 | +0.28 | — | +0.01 | — | +0.30 | +1.37 | +1.07 |
| 1996 | #63 | Aaron Beasley | DEF | +0.36 | +0.89 | — | +0.56 | — | -0.16 | -0.12 | +1.05 |
| 1997 | #147 | Damon Jones | OFF | +0.76 | +0.51 | — | +0.40 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.02 |
| 2000 | #60 | Brad Meester | OFF | +2.39 | +3.48 | -1.45 | +2.14 | -1.38 | -1.11 | -0.85 | +0.87 |
| 1998 | #9 | Fred Taylor | OFF | +0.64 | +1.32 | — | +1.97 | — | -1.92 | -2.30 | +0.84 |
| 1995 | #40 | Brian DeMarco | OFF | +0.58 | +0.39 | — | +0.38 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.84 |
| 1997 | #114 | Seth Payne | DEF | +0.08 | +0.40 | — | +0.53 | — | -0.12 | -0.06 | +0.68 |
| 1995 | #71 | Chris Hudson | DEF | +0.09 | +0.59 | — | +0.34 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | +0.63 |
| 2002 | #247 | Hayden Epstein | ST | -0.10 | +0.41 | — | +0.41 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.56 |
| 2002 | #40 | Mike Pearson | OFF | +0.18 | +0.21 | — | +0.24 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.41 |
| 1999 | #182 | Emarlos Leroy | DEF | +0.21 | +0.06 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.28 |
| 2001 | #233 | Marlon McCree | DEF | -0.11 | +0.28 | — | +0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.27 |
| 2000 | #236 | Erik Olson | DEF | +0.09 | +0.08 | — | +0.17 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.26 |
| 2002 | #89 | Akin Ayodele | DEF | +0.07 | +0.23 | — | +0.19 | — | -0.15 | -0.12 | +0.21 |
| 2001 | #142 | David Leaverton | ST | -0.44 | +0.24 | — | +0.28 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.17 |
| 2000 | #243 | Shyrone Stith | OFF | +0.09 | +0.15 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.17 |
| 2000 | #159 | Kiwaukee Thomas | DEF | +0.82 | -0.27 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.13 |
| 1995 | #219 | Curtis Marsh | OFF | -0.01 | +0.08 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.12 |
| 2000 | #92 | T.J. Slaughter | DEF | -0.02 | +0.15 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | +0.10 |
| 2002 | #246 | Steve Smith | DEF | -0.14 | +0.08 | — | +0.13 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.10 |
| 1999 | #246 | Chris White | DEF | -0.21 | +0.12 | — | +0.14 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 |
| 2001 | #241 | Randy Chevrier | DEF | -0.23 | +0.11 | — | +0.13 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| 1999 | #242 | Dee Moronkola | DEF | -0.23 | +0.09 | — | +0.13 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| 2002 | #118 | Chris Luzar | OFF | +0.02 | -0.17 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.03 |
| 1996 | #227 | Clarence Jones | OFF | -0.24 | +0.09 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.01 |
| 1996 | #228 | Gregory Spann | OFF | -0.24 | +0.10 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.01 |
| 2001 | #235 | Richmond Flowers III | OFF | -0.24 | +0.09 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.01 |
| 1995 | #169 | Ryan Christopherson | OFF | -0.06 | +0.05 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.04 |
| 1999 | #160 | Jason Craft | DEF | +0.29 | -0.05 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.09 | -0.08 | -0.05 |
| 1999 | #56 | Larry Smith | DEF | +0.37 | -0.35 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.06 |
| 2002 | #222 | Kendall Newson | OFF | -0.26 | +0.07 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.06 |
| 1998 | #179 | Lamanzer Williams | DEF | -0.28 | +0.03 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.07 |
| 2000 | #196 | Emanuel Smith | OFF | -0.27 | +0.04 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.10 |
| 2001 | #94 | James Boyd | DEF | +0.07 | -0.22 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 2002 | #180 | Clenton Ballard | DEF | -0.34 | +0.01 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.11 |
| 1996 | #170 | John Fisher | DEF | -0.36 | -0.01 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.15 |
| 2000 | #247 | Mark Baniewicz | OFF | -0.24 | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.17 |
| 1998 | #101 | Tavian Banks | OFF | -0.20 | -0.07 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 1997 | #221 | Jon Hesse | DEF | -0.34 | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.19 |
| 1998 | #214 | Brandon Tolbert | DEF | -0.36 | -0.02 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.22 |
| 2001 | #213 | Anthony Denman | DEF | -0.37 | -0.03 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.23 |
| 2001 | #73 | Eric Westmoreland | DEF | -0.03 | -0.27 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.31 |
| 1999 | #121 | Kevin Landolt | DEF | -0.43 | -0.10 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.32 |
| 1996 | #110 | Reggie Barlow | OFF | +0.58 | -0.57 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.35 |
| 1998 | #118 | Harry Deligianis | DEF | -0.46 | -0.11 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.35 |
| 2001 | #170 | Chad Ward | OFF | -0.37 | -0.21 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.40 |
| 1999 | #26 | Fernando Bryant | DEF | -0.15 | +0.39 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.47 | -0.36 | -0.42 |
| 1995 | #19 | James Stewart | OFF | -0.07 | -0.28 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.36 | -0.20 | -0.48 |
| 1998 | #182 | Kevin McLeod | OFF | -0.55 | -0.10 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 1996 | #60 | Michael Cheever | OFF | -0.26 | -0.38 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.52 |
| 1997 | #79 | James Hamilton | DEF | -0.29 | -0.34 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.58 |
| 2000 | #123 | Joey Chustz | OFF | -0.48 | -0.31 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.58 |
| 1998 | #86 | Jonathan Quinn | OFF | -0.37 | -0.32 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.62 |
| 1998 | #57 | Cordell Taylor | DEF | -0.41 | -0.38 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.64 |
| 1995 | #123 | Mike Thompson | DEF | -0.60 | -0.27 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.65 |
| 1998 | #192 | Alvis Whitted | OFF | +0.26 | -0.57 | — | -0.57 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.78 |
| 2000 | #245 | Danny Clark | DEF | -0.11 | -0.36 | — | -0.47 | — | -0.09 | -0.09 | -0.79 |
| 1999 | #88 | Anthony Cesario | OFF | -0.57 | -0.42 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.80 |
| 1997 | #184 | Daimon Shelton | OFF | +0.04 | -0.13 | — | -0.77 | — | -0.12 | -0.09 | -0.91 |
| 1998 | #148 | John Wade | OFF | -0.38 | -0.42 | — | -0.48 | — | -0.17 | -0.13 | -1.03 |
| 2000 | #29 | R. Jay Soward | OFF | -0.50 | -0.55 | — | -0.47 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -1.04 |
| 1996 | #146 | Jimmy Herndon | OFF | -0.82 | -0.60 | — | -0.47 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -1.21 |
| 1995 | #99 | Rob Johnson | OFF | -0.83 | -0.70 | — | -0.64 | — | -0.08 | -0.01 | -1.46 |
| 1996 | #185 | Chris Doering | OFF | -1.14 | -0.70 | — | -0.71 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -1.68 |
| 1997 | #50 | Mike Logan | DEF | -0.72 | -1.05 | — | -0.91 | — | -0.30 | -0.23 | -2.05 |
| 1995 | #172 | Marcus Price | OFF | -1.41 | -1.11 | — | -1.05 | — | -0.10 | -0.07 | -2.40 |
| 1997 | #21 | Renaldo Wynn | DEF | -0.85 | -0.49 | — | -0.95 | — | -1.18 | -0.67 | -2.54 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.