Bill Parcells
NE · NYJ · Composite skill θ = +0.04 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.67 to +0.75
Evidence: 61 mapped picks across 6 draft classes, 1994–1999 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.11
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1994–1996NEHC with final say; left for NYJ after famously losing personnel control fight
- 1997–1999NYJHC with final say
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | #86 | Tedy Bruschi | DEF | +3.98 |
| 1995 | #23 | Ty Law | DEF | +3.31 |
| 1994 | #168 | Max Lane | OFF | +2.63 |
| 1998 | #111 | Jason Fabini | OFF | +2.15 |
| 1995 | #57 | Ted Johnson | DEF | +2.13 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 | #8 | James Farrior | DEF | -7.81 |
| 1996 | #7 | Terry Glenn | OFF | -2.36 |
| 1994 | #4 | Willie McGinest | DEF | -1.07 |
| 1994 | #35 | Kevin Lee | OFF | -1.03 |
| 1999 | #57 | Randy Thomas | OFF | -1.00 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 61 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1996 | #86 | Tedy Bruschi | DEF | +2.18 | +1.99 | — | +1.90 | — | +0.50 | -0.51 | +3.98 |
| 1995 | #23 | Ty Law | DEF | +0.30 | +1.01 | — | +0.97 | — | +1.12 | +2.26 | +3.31 |
| 1994 | #168 | Max Lane | OFF | +1.65 | +1.39 | — | +1.13 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +2.63 |
| 1998 | #111 | Jason Fabini | OFF | +0.98 | +1.70 | — | +1.02 | — | -0.24 | -0.17 | +2.15 |
| 1995 | #57 | Ted Johnson | DEF | +1.22 | +1.56 | — | +1.02 | — | -0.32 | -0.23 | +2.13 |
| 1999 | #223 | Ryan Young | OFF | +0.87 | +0.97 | — | +0.71 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +1.62 |
| 1996 | #36 | Lawyer Milloy | DEF | -0.32 | +0.41 | — | +0.12 | — | +1.63 | +0.60 | +1.27 |
| 1996 | #119 | Chris Sullivan | DEF | +1.07 | +0.45 | — | +0.48 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +1.23 |
| 1999 | #197 | J.P. Machado | OFF | +1.36 | +0.26 | — | +0.42 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.22 |
| 1997 | #229 | Jason Ferguson | DEF | +0.46 | +0.86 | — | +0.31 | — | -0.13 | -0.09 | +0.86 |
| 1996 | #216 | Lovett Purnell | OFF | +0.51 | +0.21 | — | +0.37 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.72 |
| 1994 | #121 | John Burke | OFF | +0.52 | +0.16 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.54 |
| 1995 | #112 | Dave Wohlabaugh | OFF | +0.05 | +0.52 | — | +0.33 | — | -0.11 | -0.07 | +0.53 |
| 1994 | #135 | Pat O'Neill | ST | +0.13 | +0.23 | — | +0.35 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.52 |
| 1994 | #222 | Marty Moore | DEF | +1.37 | -0.27 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.03 | -0.03 | +0.50 |
| 1996 | #195 | Marrio Grier | OFF | +0.45 | +0.09 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.36 |
| 1996 | #206 | Devin Wyman | DEF | +0.09 | +0.18 | — | +0.23 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.36 |
| 1997 | #191 | Chuck Clements | OFF | +0.04 | +0.22 | — | +0.18 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.31 |
| 1994 | #198 | Jay Walker | OFF | +0.02 | +0.23 | — | +0.18 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.30 |
| 1998 | #87 | Kevin Williams | DEF | +0.11 | +0.12 | — | +0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.28 |
| 1999 | #123 | Jason Wiltz | DEF | +0.20 | -0.04 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.21 |
| 1997 | #88 | Dedric Ward | OFF | +0.27 | +0.11 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.09 | -0.05 | +0.15 |
| 1995 | #234 | Carlos Yancy | DEF | -0.15 | +0.08 | — | +0.12 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 |
| 1998 | #146 | Blake Spence | OFF | -0.09 | -0.11 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.07 |
| 1998 | #195 | Lawrence Hart | OFF | -0.35 | -0.01 | — | +0.25 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| 1997 | #145 | Raymond Austin | DEF | -0.02 | -0.07 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.01 |
| 1996 | #173 | Chris Griffin | OFF | -0.40 | -0.05 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.01 |
| 1997 | #202 | Steve Rosga | DEF | -0.30 | +0.04 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.05 |
| 1994 | #166 | Steve Hawkins | OFF | -0.19 | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| 1995 | #195 | Dino Philyaw | OFF | -0.33 | +0.09 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| 1998 | #183 | Dustin Johnson | OFF | -0.35 | +0.07 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.15 |
| 1999 | #235 | J.J. Syvrud | DEF | -0.30 | +0.01 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.15 |
| 1996 | #247 | J.R. Conrad | OFF | -0.23 | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.16 |
| 1999 | #162 | Jermaine Jones | DEF | -0.35 | -0.03 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.16 |
| 1998 | #174 | Chris Brazzell | OFF | -0.33 | +0.01 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| 1995 | #74 | Curtis Martin | OFF | -0.82 | -0.16 | — | +0.14 | — | +0.62 | -0.30 | -0.19 |
| 1996 | #101 | Heath Irwin | OFF | +0.13 | -0.25 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.24 |
| 1998 | #56 | Dorian Boose | DEF | +0.15 | -0.37 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 1999 | #183 | Marc Megna | DEF | -0.41 | -0.07 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 1998 | #67 | Scott Frost | DEF | +0.21 | -0.47 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.36 |
| 1997 | #164 | Tim Scharf | DEF | -0.45 | -0.10 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.36 |
| 1997 | #131 | Lamont Burns | OFF | -0.35 | -0.20 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 1996 | #124 | Kantroy Barber | OFF | -0.48 | -0.05 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 1997 | #104 | Leon Johnson | OFF | -0.16 | -0.38 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.41 |
| 1998 | #134 | Casey Dailey | DEF | -0.37 | -0.17 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.41 |
| 1997 | #102 | Terry Day | DEF | -0.48 | -0.16 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 1998 | #149 | Eric Bateman | OFF | -0.41 | -0.24 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| 1998 | #141 | Doug Karczewski | OFF | -0.43 | -0.26 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 1996 | #139 | John Elmore | OFF | -0.43 | -0.26 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.51 |
| 1995 | #88 | Jimmy Hitchcock | DEF | -0.28 | -0.22 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.08 | -0.06 | -0.54 |
| 1998 | #163 | Eric Ogbogu | DEF | +0.03 | -0.54 | — | -0.27 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.56 |
| 1994 | #78 | Ervin Collier | DEF | -0.59 | -0.25 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.61 |
| 1999 | #90 | David Loverne | OFF | +0.01 | -0.58 | — | -0.35 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.67 |
| 1994 | #90 | Joe Burch | OFF | -0.57 | -0.41 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.78 |
| 1997 | #31 | Rick Terry | DEF | -0.46 | -0.57 | — | -0.39 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.92 |
| 1996 | #149 | Christian Peter | DEF | -0.79 | -0.38 | — | -0.32 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.93 |
| 1999 | #57 | Randy Thomas | OFF | -0.49 | +0.00 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.47 | -0.31 | -1.00 |
| 1994 | #35 | Kevin Lee | OFF | -0.61 | -0.48 | — | -0.45 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.03 |
| 1994 | #4 | Willie McGinest | DEF | +0.88 | +0.94 | — | +0.39 | — | -2.22 | -2.52 | -1.07 |
| 1996 | #7 | Terry Glenn | OFF | -0.85 | -0.60 | — | -0.56 | — | -0.80 | -1.35 | -2.36 |
| 1997 | #8 | James Farrior | DEF | -1.48 | -1.86 | — | -2.20 | — | -3.84 | -4.04 | -7.81 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.