Vinny Cerrato
WAS · Composite skill θ = +0.35 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.24 to +0.94
Evidence: 63 mapped picks across 10 draft classes, 2000–2009 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.52
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2000–2009WASEVP football ops; hired Jan 2000 after Snyder bought team
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | #3 | Chris Samuels | OFF | +4.65 |
| 2004 | #81 | Chris Cooley | OFF | +3.44 |
| 2000 | #2 | LaVar Arrington | DEF | +1.92 |
| 2004 | #5 | Sean Taylor | DEF | +1.67 |
| 2001 | #45 | Fred Smoot | DEF | +1.52 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | #109 | Sage Rosenfels | OFF | -2.06 |
| 2005 | #9 | Carlos Rogers | DEF | -1.47 |
| 2008 | #96 | Chad Rinehart | OFF | -1.43 |
| 2002 | #87 | Cliff Russell | OFF | -1.33 |
| 2007 | #205 | Jordan Palmer | OFF | -0.90 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 63 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2000 | #3 | Chris Samuels | OFF | +1.34 | +1.61 | — | +0.94 | — | +5.42 | -0.96 | +4.65 |
| 2004 | #81 | Chris Cooley | OFF | +1.35 | +1.79 | — | +0.92 | — | +2.00 | -0.10 | +3.44 |
| 2000 | #2 | LaVar Arrington | DEF | +0.43 | +0.20 | — | +0.28 | — | +2.96 | -0.31 | +1.92 |
| 2004 | #5 | Sean Taylor | DEF | +0.29 | +0.34 | — | +0.35 | — | +2.10 | -0.07 | +1.67 |
| 2001 | #45 | Fred Smoot | DEF | +0.95 | +1.15 | — | +0.67 | — | -0.23 | -0.17 | +1.52 |
| 2006 | #153 | Anthony Montgomery | DEF | +0.59 | +0.53 | — | +0.60 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +1.15 |
| 2008 | #242 | Rob Jackson | DEF | +0.82 | +0.29 | +1.29 | +0.30 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.09 |
| 2006 | #173 | Reed Doughty | DEF | +1.58 | +0.90 | +0.56 | +0.50 | -0.32 | -0.05 | -0.04 | +1.06 |
| 2006 | #35 | Rocky McIntosh | DEF | +0.70 | +0.70 | — | +0.50 | — | -0.25 | -0.17 | +0.99 |
| 2008 | #249 | Chris Horton | DEF | +0.41 | +0.44 | — | +0.43 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.85 |
| 2007 | #179 | H.B. Blades | DEF | +1.07 | +0.06 | — | +0.28 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.83 |
| 2008 | #180 | Kareem Moore | DEF | +0.60 | +0.29 | — | +0.31 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.75 |
| 2003 | #81 | Derrick Dockery | OFF | +0.40 | +0.80 | — | +0.26 | — | -0.26 | -0.17 | +0.64 |
| 2001 | #15 | Rod Gardner | OFF | +0.43 | +0.70 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.12 | -0.07 | +0.61 |
| 2008 | #48 | Fred Davis | OFF | +0.70 | +0.46 | -0.05 | +0.28 | — | -0.09 | -0.04 | +0.59 |
| 2000 | #216 | Delbert Cowsette | DEF | +0.51 | +0.08 | — | +0.24 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.54 |
| 2001 | #154 | Darnerien McCants | OFF | +0.32 | +0.04 | — | +0.23 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.40 |
| 2002 | #159 | Andre Lott | DEF | +0.36 | +0.03 | — | +0.20 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.38 |
| 2003 | #232 | Gibran Hamdan | OFF | +0.09 | +0.25 | — | +0.21 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.38 |
| 2000 | #202 | Todd Husak | OFF | +0.05 | +0.23 | — | +0.19 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.33 |
| 2002 | #56 | Ladell Betts | OFF | +0.95 | -0.71 | — | +0.40 | — | -0.31 | -0.18 | +0.28 |
| 2008 | #168 | Durant Brooks | ST | -0.30 | +0.23 | — | +0.27 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.23 |
| 2008 | #186 | Colt Brennan | OFF | -0.07 | +0.13 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.14 |
| 2006 | #196 | Kedric Golston | DEF | +1.82 | +0.35 | -0.48 | +0.22 | -1.01 | -0.11 | -0.07 | +0.07 |
| 2002 | #234 | Greg Scott | DEF | -0.17 | +0.09 | — | +0.11 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| 2008 | #124 | Justin Tryon | DEF | +0.16 | -0.14 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.04 |
| 2002 | #257 | Rock Cartwright | OFF | +1.70 | -0.62 | — | -0.44 | — | -0.08 | -0.07 | +0.03 |
| 2000 | #250 | Ethan Howell | OFF | -0.21 | +0.12 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| 2007 | #216 | Tyler Ecker | OFF | -0.38 | -0.04 | — | +0.23 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.01 |
| 2009 | #243 | Marko Mitchell | OFF | -0.06 | +0.03 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.02 |
| 2005 | #222 | Nehemiah Broughton | OFF | -0.17 | +0.09 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| 2001 | #186 | Mario Monds | DEF | -0.32 | +0.03 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.08 |
| 2004 | #151 | Mark Wilson | OFF | -0.42 | -0.10 | — | +0.17 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| 2002 | #79 | Rashad Bauman | DEF | +0.07 | -0.21 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| 2004 | #180 | Jim Molinaro | OFF | -0.01 | -0.21 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| 2000 | #155 | Quincy Sanders | DEF | -0.39 | -0.05 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| 2009 | #221 | Eddie Williams | OFF | -0.37 | +0.04 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| 2006 | #250 | Kevin Simon | DEF | -0.35 | -0.02 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 2002 | #32 | Patrick Ramsey | OFF | -0.09 | -0.09 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.08 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 2002 | #230 | Jeff Grau | OFF | -0.27 | -0.12 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.24 |
| 2009 | #80 | Kevin Barnes | DEF | +0.02 | -0.27 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.25 |
| 2005 | #25 | Jason Campbell | OFF | -0.35 | +0.01 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.42 | -0.08 | -0.28 |
| 2006 | #230 | Kili Lefotu | OFF | -0.31 | -0.15 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 2002 | #192 | Reggie Coleman | OFF | -0.34 | -0.17 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 2005 | #183 | Jared Newberry | DEF | -0.45 | -0.11 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 2009 | #186 | Robert Henson | DEF | -0.35 | -0.15 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 2005 | #154 | Robert McCune | DEF | -0.39 | -0.16 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 2003 | #44 | Taylor Jacobs | OFF | +0.17 | -0.29 | — | -0.34 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.43 |
| 2000 | #129 | Michael Moore | OFF | -0.34 | -0.26 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.44 |
| 2009 | #13 | Brian Orakpo | DEF | -0.44 | +0.02 | -0.92 | -0.22 | +0.15 | +1.02 | -0.92 | -0.44 |
| 2005 | #120 | Manuel White | OFF | -0.53 | -0.11 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 2009 | #158 | Cody Glenn | DEF | -0.55 | -0.20 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.55 |
| 2007 | #143 | Dallas Sartz | DEF | -0.56 | -0.21 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.56 |
| 2008 | #51 | Malcolm Kelly | OFF | -0.26 | -0.20 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.56 |
| 2008 | #34 | Devin Thomas | OFF | -0.03 | -0.31 | — | -0.38 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.60 |
| 2002 | #160 | Robert Royal | OFF | -0.41 | -0.02 | — | -0.45 | — | -0.08 | -0.05 | -0.72 |
| 2000 | #64 | Lloyd Harrison | DEF | -0.61 | -0.35 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.73 |
| 2007 | #6 | LaRon Landry | DEF | -0.13 | +0.11 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.48 | -0.39 | -0.82 |
| 2007 | #205 | Jordan Palmer | OFF | -0.63 | -0.36 | — | -0.38 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.90 |
| 2002 | #87 | Cliff Russell | OFF | -0.90 | -0.59 | — | -0.54 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -1.33 |
| 2008 | #96 | Chad Rinehart | OFF | -0.93 | -0.70 | — | -0.56 | — | -0.08 | -0.05 | -1.43 |
| 2005 | #9 | Carlos Rogers | DEF | -0.18 | -0.04 | — | -0.54 | — | -0.89 | -0.76 | -1.47 |
| 2001 | #109 | Sage Rosenfels | OFF | -1.23 | -0.90 | — | -0.93 | — | -0.11 | -0.02 | -2.06 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.