Bill Walsh
SF · Composite skill θ = -0.10 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.90 to +0.71
Evidence: 27 mapped picks across 3 draft classes, 1999–2001 · 100% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.02
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1999–2001SFVP / de facto GM in second SF stint
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | #80 | Kevan Barlow | OFF | +1.83 |
| 1999 | #171 | Tai Streets | OFF | +1.73 |
| 2001 | #224 | Eric Johnson | OFF | +1.53 |
| 2000 | #86 | Jeff Ulbrich | DEF | +1.18 |
| 2000 | #24 | Ahmed Plummer | DEF | +1.17 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | #7 | Andre Carter | DEF | -3.89 |
| 1999 | #110 | Pierson Prioleau | DEF | -2.86 |
| 2001 | #47 | Jamie Winborn | DEF | -2.06 |
| 1999 | #89 | Chike Okeafor | DEF | -1.58 |
| 1999 | #24 | Reggie McGrew | DEF | -1.04 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 27 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2001 | #80 | Kevan Barlow | OFF | +0.93 | +0.44 | — | +1.18 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +1.83 |
| 1999 | #171 | Tai Streets | OFF | +1.04 | +0.77 | — | +0.84 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.73 |
| 2001 | #224 | Eric Johnson | OFF | +0.67 | +0.97 | — | +0.73 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.53 |
| 2000 | #86 | Jeff Ulbrich | DEF | +1.21 | +0.83 | — | +0.36 | — | -0.23 | -0.18 | +1.18 |
| 2000 | #24 | Ahmed Plummer | DEF | +0.63 | +1.03 | — | +0.41 | — | -0.08 | -0.05 | +1.17 |
| 2000 | #16 | Julian Peterson | DEF | -0.37 | -0.01 | — | -0.18 | — | +1.16 | +1.31 | +0.87 |
| 2001 | #179 | Rashad Holman | DEF | +0.77 | +0.02 | — | +0.23 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.61 |
| 1999 | #157 | Terry Jackson | OFF | +1.62 | -0.28 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.57 |
| 2001 | #169 | Cedrick Wilson | OFF | +0.53 | +0.16 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.51 |
| 2000 | #212 | Tim Rattay | OFF | +0.21 | +0.15 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | +0.32 |
| 2000 | #230 | Brian Jennings | OFF | +2.99 | -1.51 | — | -1.40 | — | +2.00 | -0.15 | +0.27 |
| 2000 | #108 | John Keith | DEF | +0.05 | +0.05 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.10 |
| 2000 | #35 | John Engelberger | DEF | +0.28 | +0.35 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.22 | -0.11 | +0.08 |
| 2000 | #150 | John Milem | DEF | +0.04 | -0.04 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| 2001 | #191 | Menson Holloway | DEF | -0.31 | +0.04 | — | +0.07 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.07 |
| 1999 | #99 | Anthony Parker | DEF | -0.02 | -0.20 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| 1999 | #234 | Kory Minor | DEF | -0.32 | +0.01 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.17 |
| 2001 | #209 | Alex Lincoln | DEF | -0.37 | -0.03 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
| 2000 | #65 | Giovanni Carmazzi | OFF | -0.32 | -0.15 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.38 |
| 2000 | #48 | Jason Webster | DEF | -0.27 | +0.04 | — | -0.27 | — | -0.21 | -0.16 | -0.56 |
| 1999 | #161 | Tyrone Hopson | OFF | -0.48 | -0.36 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.66 |
| 2000 | #132 | Paul Smith | OFF | -0.20 | -0.58 | — | -0.52 | — | -0.08 | -0.05 | -0.97 |
| 1999 | #24 | Reggie McGrew | DEF | -0.32 | -0.66 | — | -0.52 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -1.04 |
| 1999 | #89 | Chike Okeafor | DEF | -0.44 | -0.81 | — | -0.79 | — | -0.22 | -0.12 | -1.58 |
| 2001 | #47 | Jamie Winborn | DEF | -0.82 | -0.93 | — | -0.84 | — | -0.39 | -0.29 | -2.06 |
| 1999 | #110 | Pierson Prioleau | DEF | -1.33 | -1.19 | — | -1.32 | — | -0.29 | -0.26 | -2.86 |
| 2001 | #7 | Andre Carter | DEF | -1.07 | -0.73 | — | -1.43 | — | -1.88 | -1.24 | -3.89 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.