Monti Ossenfort
ARI · Composite skill θ = -0.10 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.85 to +1.65
Evidence: 28 mapped picks across 3 draft classes, 2023–2025 · 26% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.15
- maturity discount
- +0.28
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2023–2025ARIHired Jan 2023
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | #94 | Michael Wilson | OFF | +1.26 |
| 2023 | #213 | Dante Stills | DEF | +1.01 |
| 2025 | #225 | Kitan Crawford | ST | +0.65 |
| 2025 | #174 | Denzel Burke | DEF | +0.44 |
| 2023 | #180 | Kei'Trel Clark | DEF | +0.33 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | #41 | BJ Ojulari | DEF | -1.41 |
| 2025 | #16 | Walter Nolen | DEF | -1.21 |
| 2025 | #78 | Jordan Burch | DEF | -0.99 |
| 2023 | #6 | Paris Johnson | OFF | -0.82 |
| 2024 | #27 | Darius Robinson | DEF | -0.79 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 28 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2023 | #94 | Michael Wilson | OFF | +0.53 | +0.79 | +0.98 | +0.58 | +0.45 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +1.26 |
| 2023 | #213 | Dante Stills | DEF | +0.84 | +0.59 | +1.29 | +0.46 | -0.23 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +1.01 |
| 2025 | #225 | Kitan Crawford | ST | +0.33 | +0.28 | +0.63 | +0.24 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.65 |
| 2025 | #174 | Denzel Burke | DEF | +0.28 | +0.39 | +0.70 | +0.27 | -0.31 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.44 |
| 2023 | #180 | Kei'Trel Clark | DEF | +0.65 | +0.18 | +0.21 | +0.16 | -0.18 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.33 |
| 2023 | #72 | Garrett Williams | DEF | +0.17 | +0.38 | +0.07 | +0.12 | +0.09 | -0.04 | -0.02 | +0.27 |
| 2025 | #211 | Hayden Conner | OFF | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.45 | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.22 |
| 2023 | #122 | Jon Gaines | OFF | +0.20 | -0.24 | -0.48 | -0.09 | +0.85 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.19 |
| 2024 | #226 | Jaden Davis | DEF | -0.10 | +0.13 | +0.03 | +0.12 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.13 |
| 2023 | #139 | Clayton Tune | OFF | +0.16 | +0.07 | +0.02 | +0.01 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | +0.09 |
| 2024 | #138 | Xavier Thomas | DEF | +0.11 | +0.00 | -0.14 | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| 2024 | #71 | Isaiah Adams | OFF | +0.23 | +0.01 | +0.10 | +0.01 | -0.19 | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.00 |
| 2024 | #191 | Tejhaun Palmer | OFF | -0.19 | +0.10 | -0.15 | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.06 |
| 2024 | #162 | Christian Jones | OFF | -0.20 | -0.13 | -0.13 | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.22 |
| 2025 | #115 | Cody Simon | DEF | +0.04 | +0.21 | +0.25 | +0.03 | -0.86 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.25 |
| 2023 | #168 | Owen Pappoe | DEF | +0.69 | -0.11 | +0.15 | -0.03 | -1.10 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 2024 | #104 | Dadrion Taylor-Demerson | DEF | +0.27 | +0.05 | +0.09 | +0.05 | -1.28 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 2024 | #90 | Elijah Jones | DEF | -0.23 | -0.17 | -0.63 | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| 2024 | #66 | Trey Benson | OFF | -0.16 | -0.16 | -0.67 | -0.15 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.51 |
| 2025 | #47 | Will Johnson | DEF | -0.21 | +0.00 | -0.08 | -0.12 | -0.70 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.53 |
| 2024 | #4 | Marvin Harrison Jr. | OFF | -0.22 | -0.35 | -0.23 | -0.67 | +0.01 | -0.13 | -0.06 | -0.69 |
| 2024 | #82 | Tip Reiman | OFF | -0.04 | +0.09 | -0.31 | +0.02 | -1.21 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.70 |
| 2024 | #43 | Max Melton | DEF | -0.01 | -0.12 | -0.13 | -0.18 | -1.11 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.77 |
| 2024 | #27 | Darius Robinson | DEF | -0.23 | -0.22 | -0.41 | -0.34 | -0.59 | -0.05 | -0.01 | -0.79 |
| 2023 | #6 | Paris Johnson | OFF | -0.03 | -0.12 | +0.14 | -0.41 | -0.96 | -0.19 | -0.09 | -0.82 |
| 2025 | #78 | Jordan Burch | DEF | +0.05 | -0.08 | +0.23 | -0.05 | -2.04 | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.99 |
| 2025 | #16 | Walter Nolen | DEF | -0.54 | -0.60 | -0.66 | -0.59 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -1.21 |
| 2023 | #41 | BJ Ojulari | DEF | -0.20 | -0.54 | -0.47 | -0.42 | -1.53 | -0.06 | -0.02 | -1.41 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.