Harold Richardson
ATL · Composite skill θ = -0.01 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.73 to +0.71
Evidence: 63 mapped picks across 8 draft classes, 1996–2003 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.03
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1996–2003ATLVP Football Operations; no formal GM
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | #237 | Todd McClure | OFF | +5.09 |
| 2001 | #35 | Alge Crumpler | OFF | +3.36 |
| 2001 | #219 | Kynan Forney | OFF | +2.43 |
| 1997 | #180 | Calvin Collins | OFF | +2.21 |
| 1999 | #30 | Patrick Kerney | DEF | +1.93 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | #99 | Roberto Garza | OFF | -3.40 |
| 1999 | #42 | Reggie Kelly | OFF | -3.18 |
| 2001 | #1 | Michael Vick | OFF | -2.90 |
| 2000 | #67 | Mark Simoneau | DEF | -2.69 |
| 1996 | #229 | Ethan Brooks | OFF | -2.18 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 63 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1999 | #237 | Todd McClure | OFF | +2.55 | +3.55 | — | +2.26 | — | -0.23 | -0.22 | +5.09 |
| 2001 | #35 | Alge Crumpler | OFF | +0.73 | +1.05 | — | +0.66 | — | +3.88 | -0.26 | +3.36 |
| 2001 | #219 | Kynan Forney | OFF | +1.19 | +1.61 | — | +1.07 | — | -0.05 | -0.04 | +2.43 |
| 1997 | #180 | Calvin Collins | OFF | +1.13 | +1.29 | — | +1.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +2.21 |
| 1999 | #30 | Patrick Kerney | DEF | +0.85 | +1.23 | — | +0.74 | — | +0.57 | -0.27 | +1.93 |
| 1997 | #100 | Henri Crockett | DEF | +0.76 | +1.08 | — | +0.50 | — | -0.05 | -0.04 | +1.38 |
| 2001 | #102 | Matt Stewart | DEF | +0.72 | +0.78 | — | +0.50 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +1.22 |
| 1996 | #188 | Craig Sauer | DEF | +1.15 | +0.25 | — | +0.35 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.04 |
| 2000 | #37 | Travis Claridge | OFF | +0.47 | +0.64 | — | +0.49 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +1.01 |
| 2000 | #211 | Darrick Vaughn | DEF | +0.49 | +0.05 | — | +0.58 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.84 |
| 1997 | #204 | Tony Graziani | OFF | +0.47 | +0.38 | — | +0.33 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.76 |
| 2002 | #148 | Kevin McCadam | DEF | +0.91 | +0.09 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.71 |
| 1998 | #12 | Keith Brooking | DEF | +0.61 | +1.10 | — | +0.49 | — | +2.08 | -3.40 | +0.69 |
| 1999 | #126 | Johndale Carty | DEF | +1.02 | -0.03 | — | +0.19 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.67 |
| 1998 | #166 | Elijah Williams | DEF | +0.85 | +0.14 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.66 |
| 2003 | #121 | Justin Griffith | OFF | +0.55 | +0.89 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | +0.60 |
| 1998 | #201 | Ken Oxendine | OFF | +0.19 | +0.35 | — | +0.29 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.55 |
| 2001 | #236 | Quentin McCord | OFF | +0.37 | +0.15 | — | +0.29 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.54 |
| 1999 | #198 | Jeff Kelly | DEF | +0.32 | +0.15 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.40 |
| 1997 | #222 | Chris Bayne | DEF | +0.30 | +0.07 | — | +0.20 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.38 |
| 2002 | #158 | Kurt Kittner | OFF | +0.10 | +0.25 | — | +0.16 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.34 |
| 2002 | #244 | Kevin Shaffer | OFF | +0.21 | +0.25 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.04 | -0.04 | +0.31 |
| 1997 | #70 | O.J. Santiago | OFF | -0.08 | +0.43 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | +0.15 |
| 2001 | #226 | Ronald Flemons | DEF | -0.13 | +0.09 | — | +0.11 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 |
| 2003 | #238 | Demetrin Veal | DEF | -0.17 | +0.09 | — | +0.11 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| 1999 | #247 | Rondel Menendez | OFF | -0.21 | +0.12 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| 2001 | #215 | Corey Hall | DEF | -0.21 | +0.05 | — | +0.10 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| 1998 | #203 | Henry Slay | DEF | -0.28 | +0.07 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.02 |
| 1999 | #200 | Eric Thigpen | DEF | -0.30 | +0.03 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 2002 | #217 | Michael Coleman | OFF | -0.27 | +0.06 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.06 |
| 2003 | #196 | LaTarence Dunbar | OFF | -0.19 | +0.02 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| 2003 | #202 | Waine Bacon | DEF | -0.32 | +0.02 | — | +0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.08 |
| 2002 | #116 | Martin Bibla | OFF | +0.25 | -0.28 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 1996 | #164 | Gary Bandy | DEF | -0.36 | +0.00 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.15 |
| 2001 | #167 | Randy Garner | DEF | -0.36 | -0.01 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.15 |
| 2002 | #184 | Kahlil Hill | OFF | -0.31 | +0.01 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.15 |
| 2000 | #172 | Mareno Philyaw | OFF | -0.32 | +0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| 1997 | #133 | Marcus Wimberly | DEF | -0.29 | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 1998 | #103 | Omar Brown | DEF | -0.16 | -0.18 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.22 |
| 1998 | #74 | Jammi German | OFF | +0.10 | -0.28 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.26 |
| 2003 | #159 | Jon Olinger | OFF | -0.39 | -0.04 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.26 |
| 2000 | #134 | Anthony Midget | DEF | -0.44 | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| 2001 | #136 | Vinny Sutherland | OFF | -0.43 | -0.08 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 1997 | #41 | Byron Hanspard | OFF | -0.10 | -0.32 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.34 |
| 1998 | #53 | Bob Hallen | OFF | +0.12 | -0.27 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.15 | -0.09 | -0.38 |
| 2000 | #100 | Michael Thompson | OFF | -0.25 | -0.27 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| 1999 | #164 | Eugene Baker | OFF | -0.46 | -0.16 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 1996 | #84 | Shannon Brown | DEF | -0.56 | -0.23 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.56 |
| 1999 | #92 | Jeff Paulk | OFF | -0.55 | -0.16 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.56 |
| 2002 | #80 | Will Overstreet | DEF | -0.54 | -0.30 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.69 |
| 2002 | #18 | T.J. Duckett | OFF | -0.01 | -0.71 | — | -0.25 | — | -0.25 | -0.14 | -0.80 |
| 1997 | #11 | Michael Booker | DEF | +0.05 | -0.64 | — | -0.54 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.88 |
| 1997 | #32 | Nathan Davis | DEF | -0.75 | -0.56 | — | -0.46 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -1.13 |
| 1996 | #117 | Richard Huntley | OFF | -0.87 | -0.42 | — | -0.45 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.14 |
| 1998 | #199 | Ephraim Salaam | OFF | -0.60 | -0.17 | — | -0.57 | — | -0.22 | -0.20 | -1.17 |
| 1998 | #114 | Tim Dwight | OFF | -0.60 | -0.80 | — | -0.45 | — | -0.17 | -0.11 | -1.29 |
| 2003 | #55 | Bryan Scott | DEF | -0.62 | -0.37 | — | -0.68 | — | -0.31 | -0.24 | -1.46 |
| 1996 | #127 | Juran Bolden | DEF | -0.56 | -0.82 | — | -0.86 | — | -0.18 | -0.15 | -1.71 |
| 1996 | #229 | Ethan Brooks | OFF | -1.26 | -1.02 | — | -0.98 | — | -0.07 | -0.05 | -2.18 |
| 2000 | #67 | Mark Simoneau | DEF | -0.91 | -1.28 | — | -1.22 | — | -0.41 | -0.33 | -2.69 |
| 2001 | #1 | Michael Vick | OFF | -1.07 | -1.17 | — | -0.77 | — | -0.56 | -1.45 | -2.90 |
| 1999 | #42 | Reggie Kelly | OFF | -0.66 | -0.72 | — | -1.59 | — | -1.13 | -0.67 | -3.18 |
| 2001 | #99 | Roberto Garza | OFF | -1.28 | -1.29 | — | -1.47 | — | -0.71 | -0.57 | -3.40 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.