Jeff Diamond
MIN · Composite skill θ = +0.06 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.83 to +0.95
Evidence: 7 mapped picks across 1 draft classes, 1991–1991 · 100% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.32
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1991–1991MINVP Football Operations under Lynn 1980-1990; transitional GM for 1991 draft post-Lynn departure for WLAF
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 | #163 | Todd Scott | DEF | +1.86 |
| 1991 | #68 | Jake Reed | OFF | +1.16 |
| 1991 | #65 | Carlos Jenkins | DEF | +0.88 |
| 1991 | #179 | Scotty Reagan | DEF | -0.13 |
| 1991 | #180 | Tripp Welborne | DEF | -0.13 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 | #92 | Randy Baldwin | OFF | -0.92 |
| 1991 | #119 | Chris Thome | OFF | -0.64 |
| 1991 | #180 | Tripp Welborne | DEF | -0.13 |
| 1991 | #179 | Scotty Reagan | DEF | -0.13 |
| 1991 | #65 | Carlos Jenkins | DEF | +0.88 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 7 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1991 | #163 | Todd Scott | DEF | +0.66 | +0.82 | — | +0.60 | — | +1.07 | -0.02 | +1.86 |
| 1991 | #68 | Jake Reed | OFF | +1.09 | +0.65 | — | +0.78 | — | -0.61 | -0.37 | +1.16 |
| 1991 | #65 | Carlos Jenkins | DEF | +0.29 | +0.62 | — | +0.47 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.88 |
| 1991 | #179 | Scotty Reagan | DEF | -0.35 | +0.01 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.13 |
| 1991 | #180 | Tripp Welborne | DEF | -0.31 | -0.01 | — | +0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| 1991 | #119 | Chris Thome | OFF | -0.50 | -0.33 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.64 |
| 1991 | #92 | Randy Baldwin | OFF | -0.69 | -0.34 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.92 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.