John Shaw
LAR · Composite skill θ = -0.58 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.24 to +0.08
Composite θ
-0.58
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
-1.24–+0.08
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
4%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Terrible
maturity-adjusted direction probability > 80%
Evidence: 116 mapped picks across 15 draft classes, 1985–1999 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.47
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1985–1993LARPresident with de facto GM authority; Frontiere delegated football to Shaw
- 1994–1999LARFront office collective; LA→St Louis transition era
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | #6 | Torry Holt | OFF | +8.17 |
| 1986 | #50 | Tom Newberry | OFF | +6.31 |
| 1997 | #1 | Orlando Pace | OFF | +6.23 |
| 1985 | #21 | Jerry Gray | DEF | +3.72 |
| 1994 | #33 | Isaac Bruce | OFF | +3.71 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | #15 | Wayne Gandy | OFF | -5.70 |
| 1996 | #18 | Eddie Kennison | OFF | -4.60 |
| 1993 | #10 | Jerome Bettis | OFF | -4.01 |
| 1992 | #3 | Sean Gilbert | DEF | -3.37 |
| 1988 | #47 | Fred Strickland | DEF | -3.09 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 116 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1999 | #6 | Torry Holt | OFF | +1.56 | +1.87 | — | +2.78 | — | +6.22 | +1.12 | +8.17 |
| 1986 | #50 | Tom Newberry | OFF | +1.33 | +1.95 | — | +1.80 | — | +1.71 | +4.04 | +6.31 |
| 1997 | #1 | Orlando Pace | OFF | +1.14 | +1.32 | — | +1.88 | — | +3.93 | +2.31 | +6.23 |
| 1985 | #21 | Jerry Gray | DEF | +0.72 | +0.75 | — | +1.20 | — | +3.88 | -0.31 | +3.72 |
| 1994 | #33 | Isaac Bruce | OFF | +1.47 | +2.19 | — | +2.49 | — | +0.70 | -1.92 | +3.71 |
| 1998 | #65 | Leonard Little | DEF | +1.42 | +1.07 | — | +1.01 | — | +0.68 | +1.92 | +3.55 |
| 1994 | #71 | Keith Lyle | DEF | +1.09 | +1.43 | — | +0.73 | — | -0.15 | -0.11 | +1.86 |
| 1988 | #117 | Robert Delpino | OFF | +1.00 | +0.41 | — | +0.59 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +1.26 |
| 1989 | #53 | Darryl Henley | DEF | +0.91 | +0.88 | — | +0.38 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +1.23 |
| 1991 | #116 | Robert Young | DEF | +0.84 | +0.69 | — | +0.46 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +1.22 |
| 1990 | #23 | Bern Brostek | OFF | +1.03 | +0.92 | — | +0.38 | — | -0.28 | -0.15 | +1.14 |
| 1987 | #108 | Larry Kelm | DEF | +0.84 | +0.69 | — | +0.37 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | +1.09 |
| 1988 | #46 | Flipper Anderson | OFF | +0.75 | +0.70 | — | +0.66 | — | -0.47 | -0.24 | +1.03 |
| 1985 | #77 | Dale Hatcher | ST | +0.48 | -0.75 | — | -0.28 | — | +0.88 | +1.99 | +1.03 |
| 1985 | #162 | Damone Johnson | OFF | +0.87 | +1.01 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | +0.88 |
| 1988 | #82 | Mike Piel | DEF | +0.59 | +0.42 | — | +0.32 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.81 |
| 1994 | #49 | Toby Wright | DEF | +0.49 | +0.61 | — | +0.30 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.81 |
| 1995 | #240 | J.T. Thomas | OFF | +1.02 | +0.17 | — | +0.16 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.75 |
| 1995 | #140 | Mike Scurlock | DEF | +0.81 | -0.05 | — | +0.17 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.54 |
| 1999 | #252 | Rodney Williams | ST | -0.23 | +0.43 | — | +0.42 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.52 |
| 1989 | #26 | Cleveland Gary | OFF | +0.50 | +0.01 | — | +0.33 | — | -0.13 | -0.06 | +0.49 |
| 1997 | #158 | Taje Allen | DEF | +0.80 | -0.10 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.43 |
| 1999 | #68 | Rich Coady | DEF | +0.84 | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | +0.31 |
| 1990 | #190 | Kent Elmore | ST | -0.36 | +0.32 | — | +0.33 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.30 |
| 1996 | #222 | Chuck Osborne | DEF | +0.11 | +0.12 | — | +0.16 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.28 |
| 1996 | #201 | Hayward Clay | OFF | -0.08 | +0.11 | — | +0.26 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.27 |
| 1998 | #6 | Grant Wistrom | DEF | +0.39 | +0.37 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.46 | -0.26 | +0.16 |
| 1996 | #175 | Derrick Harris | OFF | +0.12 | +0.44 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.13 |
| 1995 | #220 | Herman O'Berry | DEF | -0.05 | +0.07 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.12 |
| 1989 | #188 | George Bethune | DEF | +0.33 | -0.09 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.11 |
| 1996 | #83 | Jerald Moore | OFF | +0.15 | +0.17 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | +0.10 |
| 1995 | #239 | Bronzell Miller | DEF | -0.22 | +0.12 | — | +0.13 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 |
| 1991 | #5 | Todd Lyght | DEF | +0.92 | +1.35 | — | +0.19 | — | -0.76 | -1.72 | +0.08 |
| 1998 | #236 | Jason Chorak | DEF | -0.23 | +0.11 | — | +0.13 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| 1997 | #215 | Cedric White | DEF | -0.26 | +0.08 | — | +0.11 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| 1993 | #149 | Deral Boykin | DEF | -0.02 | -0.06 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.00 |
| 1987 | #166 | Jon Embree | OFF | -0.16 | -0.11 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.00 |
| 1999 | #101 | Joe Germaine | OFF | -0.12 | +0.00 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.02 |
| 1994 | #167 | Rickey Brady | OFF | -0.39 | -0.06 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.03 |
| 1988 | #20 | Aaron Cox | OFF | +0.60 | -0.15 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.12 | -0.06 | -0.06 |
| 1995 | #82 | Steve McLaughlin | ST | -0.40 | +0.07 | — | +0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| 1997 | #40 | Dexter McCleon | DEF | +0.40 | +0.18 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.35 | -0.26 | -0.09 |
| 1993 | #127 | Chuck Belin | OFF | +0.04 | -0.13 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 1997 | #179 | Muadianvita Kazadi | DEF | -0.13 | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.12 |
| 1998 | #98 | Roland Williams | OFF | +0.00 | +0.28 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.16 |
| 1995 | #115 | Lovell Pinkney | OFF | -0.34 | -0.19 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.16 |
| 1989 | #102 | Jeff Carlson | OFF | -0.23 | -0.02 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.17 |
| 1992 | #114 | Chris Crooms | DEF | -0.12 | -0.16 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| 1998 | #96 | Az-Zahir Hakim | OFF | +0.01 | -0.66 | — | +0.25 | — | -0.13 | -0.08 | -0.19 |
| 1991 | #170 | Tyrone Shelton | OFF | -0.40 | +0.03 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.23 |
| 1988 | #165 | Jeff Knapton | DEF | -0.41 | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.24 |
| 1990 | #161 | Tim Stallworth | OFF | -0.39 | -0.04 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.27 |
| 1993 | #122 | Sean LaChapelle | OFF | -0.22 | -0.11 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.28 |
| 1994 | #108 | Chris Brantley | OFF | -0.13 | -0.15 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.28 |
| 1985 | #189 | Danny Bradley | OFF | -0.43 | +0.01 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 1989 | #148 | Thom Kaumeyer | DEF | -0.44 | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| 1992 | #144 | Joe Campbell | OFF | -0.45 | -0.01 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.31 |
| 1994 | #189 | Ronald Edwards | OFF | -0.33 | -0.16 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 1996 | #105 | Percell Gaskins | DEF | -0.23 | -0.22 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 1998 | #129 | Raymond Priester | OFF | -0.47 | -0.04 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 1993 | #179 | Brad Fichtel | OFF | -0.33 | -0.19 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.36 |
| 1986 | #160 | Lynn Williams | OFF | -0.47 | -0.03 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 1988 | #147 | Keith Jones | OFF | -0.48 | -0.04 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.37 |
| 1999 | #176 | Lionel Barnes | DEF | -0.43 | -0.16 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.40 |
| 1989 | #161 | Mark Messner | DEF | -0.40 | -0.14 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.41 |
| 1998 | #159 | Glenn Rountree | OFF | -0.39 | -0.22 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 1996 | #42 | Tony Banks | OFF | -0.40 | -0.02 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.24 | -0.05 | -0.43 |
| 1990 | #78 | Latin Berry | DEF | -0.24 | -0.30 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 1995 | #214 | Gerald McBurrows | DEF | +0.06 | -0.31 | — | -0.32 | — | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.48 |
| 1999 | #145 | Cameron Spikes | OFF | -0.16 | -0.42 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.52 |
| 1991 | #143 | Neal Fort | OFF | -0.45 | -0.27 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.53 |
| 1998 | #37 | Robert Holcombe | OFF | +0.21 | -0.21 | — | -0.42 | — | -0.15 | -0.08 | -0.54 |
| 1992 | #60 | Todd Kinchen | OFF | +0.12 | -0.66 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.09 | -0.04 | -0.60 |
| 1987 | #91 | Doug Bartlett | DEF | -0.61 | -0.25 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.62 |
| 1989 | #21 | Bill Hawkins | DEF | +0.11 | -0.50 | — | -0.39 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.62 |
| 1993 | #73 | Russell White | OFF | -0.52 | -0.24 | — | -0.27 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.67 |
| 1993 | #39 | Troy Drayton | OFF | -0.20 | -0.07 | — | -0.41 | — | -0.19 | -0.09 | -0.68 |
| 1992 | #57 | Marc Boutte | DEF | -0.52 | -0.05 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.10 | -0.05 | -0.68 |
| 1994 | #100 | Ernest Jones | DEF | -0.72 | -0.34 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.81 |
| 1992 | #87 | Shawn Harper | OFF | -0.59 | -0.43 | — | -0.30 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.83 |
| 1989 | #48 | Brian Smith | DEF | -0.38 | -0.44 | — | -0.40 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.84 |
| 1989 | #75 | Kevin Robbins | OFF | -0.63 | -0.50 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.96 |
| 1985 | #50 | Chuck Scott | OFF | -0.57 | -0.49 | — | -0.41 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.97 |
| 1996 | #59 | Ernie Conwell | OFF | +0.04 | +0.04 | — | -0.66 | — | -0.46 | -0.24 | -0.97 |
| 1990 | #49 | Pat Terrell | DEF | -0.14 | -0.33 | — | -0.56 | — | -0.23 | -0.15 | -0.98 |
| 1995 | #62 | Jesse James | OFF | -0.62 | -0.54 | — | -0.39 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.99 |
| 1994 | #83 | James Bostic | OFF | -0.80 | -0.37 | — | -0.38 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -1.00 |
| 1985 | #113 | Kevin Greene | DEF | -0.03 | -0.15 | — | -0.56 | — | +0.06 | -0.89 | -1.07 |
| 1988 | #137 | James Washington | DEF | -0.48 | -0.66 | — | -0.45 | — | -0.06 | -0.04 | -1.07 |
| 1989 | #45 | Frank Stams | DEF | -0.41 | -0.48 | — | -0.54 | — | -0.12 | -0.07 | -1.07 |
| 1992 | #171 | Darryl Ashmore | OFF | -0.41 | -0.43 | — | -0.58 | — | -0.10 | -0.07 | -1.09 |
| 1987 | #136 | Scott Mersereau | DEF | -0.88 | -0.46 | — | -0.41 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -1.10 |
| 1994 | #56 | Brad Ottis | DEF | -0.47 | -0.72 | — | -0.53 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | -1.17 |
| 1996 | #6 | Lawrence Phillips | OFF | -0.42 | -0.44 | — | -0.73 | — | -0.11 | -0.07 | -1.25 |
| 1988 | #14 | Gaston Green | OFF | -0.26 | -0.71 | — | -0.70 | — | -0.11 | -0.05 | -1.26 |
| 1989 | #135 | Alfred Jackson | OFF | -0.78 | -0.64 | — | -0.63 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -1.39 |
| 1995 | #6 | Kevin Carter | DEF | -0.67 | -0.22 | — | -0.66 | — | -1.30 | +0.51 | -1.51 |
| 1997 | #112 | Ryan Tucker | OFF | -0.58 | -0.80 | — | -0.54 | — | -0.33 | -0.25 | -1.52 |
| 1986 | #144 | Robert Jenkins | OFF | +0.21 | -1.13 | — | -0.87 | — | -0.24 | -0.16 | -1.53 |
| 1985 | #161 | Mike Young | OFF | -0.26 | -0.95 | — | -0.88 | — | -0.16 | -0.09 | -1.62 |
| 1988 | #35 | Anthony Newman | DEF | +0.34 | -0.43 | — | -0.82 | — | -0.95 | -0.70 | -1.68 |
| 1987 | #74 | Cliff Hicks | DEF | -0.68 | -0.90 | — | -0.76 | — | -0.18 | -0.12 | -1.70 |
| 1999 | #41 | Dre' Bly | DEF | -0.48 | -0.93 | — | -0.77 | — | -0.51 | -0.40 | -1.94 |
| 1991 | #107 | Robert Bailey | DEF | -0.66 | -1.00 | — | -0.93 | — | -0.23 | -0.18 | -1.97 |
| 1996 | #141 | Fred Miller | OFF | -0.72 | -0.75 | — | -0.96 | — | -0.34 | -0.28 | -2.01 |
| 1986 | #71 | Hugh Millen | OFF | -1.39 | -1.10 | — | -1.12 | — | -0.22 | -0.04 | -2.49 |
| 1992 | #30 | Steve Israel | DEF | -0.86 | -1.12 | — | -1.19 | — | -0.45 | -0.32 | -2.56 |
| 1987 | #47 | Donald Evans | DEF | -1.58 | -1.20 | — | -1.13 | — | -0.23 | -0.10 | -2.68 |
| 1995 | #38 | Zach Wiegert | OFF | -1.10 | -0.76 | — | -1.15 | — | -0.87 | -0.58 | -2.81 |
| 1991 | #31 | Roman Phifer | DEF | -0.26 | +0.35 | — | -0.69 | — | -2.32 | -2.03 | -2.82 |
| 1986 | #23 | Mike Schad | OFF | -1.39 | -1.47 | — | -1.28 | — | -0.34 | -0.17 | -2.97 |
| 1988 | #47 | Fred Strickland | DEF | -0.84 | -1.15 | — | -1.32 | — | -0.91 | -0.65 | -3.09 |
| 1992 | #3 | Sean Gilbert | DEF | -1.07 | -0.84 | — | -1.55 | — | -0.59 | -1.13 | -3.37 |
| 1993 | #10 | Jerome Bettis | OFF | -1.61 | -1.29 | — | -1.60 | — | -1.90 | -0.01 | -4.01 |
| 1996 | #18 | Eddie Kennison | OFF | -1.48 | -1.27 | — | -1.71 | — | -1.82 | -1.22 | -4.60 |
| 1994 | #15 | Wayne Gandy | OFF | -1.26 | -0.97 | — | -1.74 | — | -3.15 | -2.54 | -5.70 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.