George Young
NYG · Composite skill θ = +0.66 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval +0.02 to +1.29
Composite θ
+0.66
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval
+0.02–+1.29
maturity-adjusted
Maturity-adjusted direction probability
98%
moment-matched Normal approximation
Verdict
Elite
interval excludes zero
Evidence: 135 mapped picks across 18 draft classes, 1980–1997 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.41
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 1980–1997NYGHOF GM; long tenure ended 1997
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1981 | #2 | Lawrence Taylor | DEF | +14.74 |
| 1993 | #40 | Michael Strahan | DEF | +13.07 |
| 1997 | #36 | Tiki Barber | OFF | +7.90 |
| 1992 | #99 | Keith Hamilton | DEF | +4.68 |
| 1985 | #100 | Mark Bavaro | OFF | +4.33 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1983 | #63 | Jamie Williams | OFF | -4.43 |
| 1997 | #95 | Brad Maynard | ST | -4.19 |
| 1991 | #83 | Ed McCaffrey | OFF | -3.38 |
| 1993 | #177 | Todd Peterson | ST | -3.29 |
| 1995 | #17 | Tyrone Wheatley | OFF | -3.12 |
Opportunity
GP · GS · Snaps
earned playing time
Quality
AV · AV/snap
value per opportunity
Recognition
PB · AP1
league honors
All 135 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 1981 | #2 | Lawrence Taylor | DEF | +1.47 | +2.01 | — | +5.03 | — | +4.57 | +11.37 | +14.74 |
| 1993 | #40 | Michael Strahan | DEF | +2.22 | +3.21 | — | +4.39 | — | +4.13 | +7.80 | +13.07 |
| 1997 | #36 | Tiki Barber | OFF | +1.88 | +1.62 | — | +3.90 | — | +2.70 | +1.80 | +7.90 |
| 1992 | #99 | Keith Hamilton | DEF | +2.15 | +2.84 | — | +2.40 | — | -0.29 | -0.16 | +4.68 |
| 1985 | #100 | Mark Bavaro | OFF | +0.28 | +0.99 | — | +0.66 | — | +1.91 | +4.17 | +4.33 |
| 1987 | #168 | Doug Riesenberg | OFF | +1.79 | +2.21 | — | +1.69 | — | -0.13 | -0.09 | +3.58 |
| 1990 | #24 | Rodney Hampton | OFF | +1.00 | +1.18 | — | +1.52 | — | +1.83 | -0.19 | +3.43 |
| 1983 | #37 | Leonard Marshall | DEF | +1.21 | +1.47 | — | +1.45 | — | +1.13 | -0.46 | +3.13 |
| 1983 | #178 | Perry Williams | DEF | +1.80 | +2.16 | — | +1.21 | — | -0.19 | -0.15 | +3.02 |
| 1980 | #8 | Mark Haynes | DEF | -0.41 | -0.21 | — | +0.55 | — | +1.66 | +3.25 | +2.70 |
| 1996 | #34 | Amani Toomer | OFF | +2.07 | +1.82 | — | +1.66 | — | -1.28 | -0.83 | +2.55 |
| 1984 | #171 | Lionel Manuel | OFF | +1.33 | +1.26 | — | +1.18 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | +2.44 |
| 1992 | #180 | Corey Widmer | DEF | +1.72 | +1.16 | — | +1.02 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | +2.42 |
| 1982 | #45 | Joe Morris | OFF | +0.33 | +0.33 | — | +0.56 | — | +1.29 | +1.72 | +2.40 |
| 1995 | #206 | Charles Way | OFF | +1.51 | +1.63 | — | +0.73 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +2.29 |
| 1997 | #136 | Sam Garnes | DEF | +0.96 | +1.58 | — | +0.93 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +2.17 |
| 1984 | #105 | Gary Reasons | DEF | +1.43 | +1.10 | — | +0.98 | — | -0.18 | -0.12 | +2.10 |
| 1989 | #158 | Howard Cross | OFF | +2.80 | +3.08 | — | -0.65 | — | -0.36 | -0.22 | +2.00 |
| 1991 | #167 | Corey Miller | DEF | +1.25 | +1.10 | — | +0.88 | — | -0.07 | -0.06 | +1.99 |
| 1987 | #83 | Stephen Baker | OFF | +1.35 | +0.98 | — | +0.76 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | +1.90 |
| 1983 | #10 | Terry Kinard | DEF | +0.84 | +1.17 | — | +0.67 | — | +0.59 | -0.31 | +1.81 |
| 1993 | #93 | Greg Bishop | OFF | +1.17 | +1.05 | — | +0.62 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | +1.69 |
| 1986 | #46 | Erik Howard | DEF | +0.89 | +0.52 | — | +0.55 | — | +0.57 | -0.24 | +1.41 |
| 1992 | #153 | Stacey Dillard | DEF | +1.03 | +0.49 | — | +0.66 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +1.41 |
| 1992 | #41 | Phillippi Sparks | DEF | +0.80 | +1.07 | — | +0.63 | — | -0.24 | -0.17 | +1.35 |
| 1980 | #145 | Scott Brunner | OFF | +0.92 | +0.63 | — | +0.48 | — | -0.03 | +0.00 | +1.25 |
| 1994 | #59 | Jason Sehorn | DEF | +0.87 | +0.73 | — | +0.58 | — | -0.27 | -0.20 | +1.15 |
| 1997 | #68 | Ryan Phillips | DEF | +0.69 | +0.55 | — | +0.45 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | +1.05 |
| 1983 | #70 | Karl Nelson | OFF | +0.42 | +0.64 | — | +0.51 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | +0.99 |
| 1986 | #73 | John Washington | DEF | +1.13 | +0.24 | — | +0.35 | — | -0.11 | -0.04 | +0.96 |
| 1996 | #214 | Conrad Hamilton | DEF | +0.69 | +0.38 | — | +0.38 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.91 |
| 1986 | #51 | Pepper Johnson | DEF | -0.05 | +0.09 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.18 | +1.22 | +0.75 |
| 1986 | #19 | Eric Dorsey | DEF | +0.79 | +0.44 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.16 | -0.07 | +0.72 |
| 1993 | #66 | Marcus Buckley | DEF | +1.31 | -0.07 | — | +0.14 | — | -0.08 | -0.05 | +0.70 |
| 1994 | #47 | Thomas Randolph | DEF | +0.62 | +0.26 | — | +0.20 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | +0.60 |
| 1981 | #115 | Bill Neill | DEF | -0.05 | +0.36 | — | +0.41 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.55 |
| 1989 | #132 | Dave Meggett | OFF | +0.78 | -0.74 | — | +0.68 | — | -0.21 | -0.13 | +0.53 |
| 1995 | #225 | Bryne Diehl | ST | -0.27 | +0.40 | — | +0.39 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.45 |
| 1995 | #128 | Rob Zatechka | OFF | +0.68 | -0.04 | — | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.36 |
| 1996 | #171 | Doug Colman | DEF | +0.61 | -0.09 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.31 |
| 1982 | #129 | Rich Umphrey | OFF | +0.22 | +0.07 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.31 |
| 1995 | #204 | Jamal Duff | DEF | +0.08 | +0.12 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.28 |
| 1983 | #153 | Kevin Belcher | OFF | +0.25 | +0.11 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.28 |
| 1997 | #171 | Mike Cherry | OFF | +0.02 | +0.18 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.25 |
| 1997 | #103 | Pete Monty | DEF | +0.52 | -0.14 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.19 |
| 1989 | #93 | Lewis Tillman | OFF | +0.93 | -0.23 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.08 | -0.04 | +0.17 |
| 1988 | #175 | Mike Perez | OFF | -0.07 | +0.15 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.15 |
| 1994 | #155 | Chad Bratzke | DEF | -0.21 | +0.22 | — | +0.21 | — | -0.08 | -0.05 | +0.15 |
| 1996 | #5 | Cedric Jones | DEF | +0.77 | -0.11 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.08 |
| 1990 | #51 | Mike Fox | DEF | +0.36 | -0.01 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.19 | -0.08 | +0.03 |
| 1990 | #135 | Craig Kupp | OFF | -0.13 | +0.08 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| 1987 | #112 | Odessa Turner | OFF | +0.12 | -0.01 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.06 | -0.03 | +0.03 |
| 1997 | #208 | Matt Keneley | DEF | -0.27 | +0.07 | — | +0.10 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| 1996 | #130 | Danny Kanell | OFF | +0.00 | +0.11 | — | -0.05 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| 1989 | #64 | Bob Kratch | OFF | +0.27 | -0.12 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.14 | -0.08 | -0.02 |
| 1995 | #85 | Rodney Young | DEF | +0.22 | -0.25 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| 1996 | #182 | Scott Galyon | DEF | +0.59 | -0.39 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.05 |
| 1986 | #157 | Solomon Miller | OFF | -0.06 | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.06 |
| 1993 | #150 | Scott Davis | OFF | +0.04 | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.06 |
| 1992 | #69 | Aaron Pierce | OFF | +0.44 | +0.06 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.12 | -0.06 | -0.07 |
| 1991 | #195 | Simmie Carter | DEF | -0.33 | +0.01 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| 1988 | #10 | Eric Moore | OFF | +0.17 | +0.19 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.43 | -0.25 | -0.14 |
| 1980 | #179 | Bud Hebert | DEF | -0.28 | +0.02 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.16 |
| 1990 | #191 | Aaron Emanuel | OFF | -0.36 | +0.06 | — | -0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| 1994 | #128 | Chris Maumalanga | DEF | -0.27 | -0.09 | — | +0.01 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.18 |
| 1983 | #124 | Malcolm Scott | OFF | -0.24 | -0.23 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| 1995 | #153 | Roderick Mullen | DEF | -0.40 | -0.05 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.21 |
| 1981 | #59 | John Mistler | OFF | +0.20 | -0.24 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.22 |
| 1980 | #181 | Chris Linnin | DEF | -0.27 | -0.07 | — | -0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.24 |
| 1991 | #27 | Jarrod Bunch | OFF | +0.21 | +0.02 | — | -0.31 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | -0.25 |
| 1980 | #90 | Danny Pittman | OFF | +0.12 | -0.20 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.29 |
| 1981 | #168 | Louis Jackson | OFF | -0.28 | +0.00 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| 1986 | #184 | Jon Francis | OFF | -0.42 | +0.01 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| 1985 | #165 | Mark Pembrook | DEF | -0.46 | -0.10 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 1987 | #160 | Tim Richardson | OFF | -0.46 | -0.02 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 1994 | #186 | Jason Winrow | OFF | -0.34 | -0.17 | — | -0.08 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.34 |
| 1992 | #126 | Michael Wright | DEF | -0.47 | -0.12 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 1994 | #24 | Thomas Lewis | OFF | -0.03 | -0.25 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.41 |
| 1988 | #186 | Danta Whitaker | OFF | -0.62 | -0.24 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.41 |
| 1984 | #143 | Jim Scott | DEF | -0.51 | -0.13 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 1986 | #130 | Vince Warren | OFF | -0.41 | -0.15 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.44 |
| 1988 | #118 | Jon Carter | DEF | -0.52 | -0.15 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.44 |
| 1991 | #55 | Kanavis McGhee | DEF | +0.18 | -0.43 | — | -0.29 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.45 |
| 1986 | #139 | Ron Brown | OFF | -0.49 | -0.12 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 1989 | #175 | Dave Popp | OFF | -0.40 | -0.22 | — | -0.13 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 1995 | #133 | Ben Talley | DEF | -0.42 | -0.17 | — | -0.14 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.45 |
| 1988 | #92 | Ricky Shaw | DEF | -0.18 | -0.33 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.47 |
| 1989 | #105 | Brad Henke | DEF | -0.54 | -0.18 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| 1988 | #62 | Sheldon White | DEF | -0.13 | -0.40 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.50 |
| 1984 | #87 | Conrad Goode | OFF | -0.10 | -0.45 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.51 |
| 1985 | #132 | Tracy Henderson | OFF | -0.52 | -0.15 | — | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.51 |
| 1991 | #139 | Anthony Moss | DEF | -0.53 | -0.17 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.51 |
| 1981 | #165 | Edward O'Neal | OFF | -0.55 | -0.09 | — | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.52 |
| 1986 | #44 | Mark Collins | DEF | +0.15 | +0.80 | — | +0.03 | — | -1.22 | -0.90 | -0.56 |
| 1986 | #53 | Greg Lasker | DEF | -0.02 | -0.47 | — | -0.28 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.56 |
| 1993 | #123 | Tommy Thigpen | DEF | -0.55 | -0.20 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.56 |
| 1985 | #46 | Stacy Robinson | OFF | +0.04 | -0.30 | — | -0.38 | — | -0.09 | -0.04 | -0.57 |
| 1984 | #115 | Clint Harris | DEF | -0.59 | -0.23 | — | -0.15 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.58 |
| 1988 | #145 | David Houle | OFF | -0.47 | -0.29 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.58 |
| 1990 | #107 | Dave Whitmore | DEF | -0.35 | -0.36 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.60 |
| 1985 | #159 | Jack Oliver | OFF | -0.48 | -0.29 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.60 |
| 1987 | #140 | Paul O'Connor | OFF | -0.49 | -0.31 | — | -0.21 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.62 |
| 1983 | #151 | Darrell Patterson | DEF | -0.60 | -0.23 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.65 |
| 1990 | #79 | Greg Mark | DEF | -0.61 | -0.27 | — | -0.20 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.65 |
| 1982 | #156 | Darrell Nicholson | DEF | -0.61 | -0.23 | — | -0.23 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.66 |
| 1980 | #118 | Tony Blount | DEF | -0.59 | -0.29 | — | -0.22 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.68 |
| 1984 | #27 | William Roberts | OFF | +0.71 | +0.85 | — | +0.28 | — | -1.81 | -1.82 | -0.75 |
| 1981 | #85 | Cliff Chatman | OFF | -0.61 | -0.23 | — | -0.32 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.78 |
| 1987 | #55 | Adrian White | DEF | +0.06 | -0.77 | — | -0.46 | — | -0.09 | -0.06 | -0.90 |
| 1995 | #54 | Scott Gragg | OFF | -0.11 | +0.07 | — | -0.48 | — | -0.48 | -0.31 | -0.90 |
| 1985 | #58 | Tyrone Davis | DEF | -0.60 | -0.45 | — | -0.35 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.91 |
| 1980 | #64 | Myron Lapka | DEF | -0.58 | -0.47 | — | -0.36 | — | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.92 |
| 1989 | #78 | Greg Jackson | DEF | -0.33 | +0.00 | — | -0.33 | — | -0.48 | -0.37 | -0.93 |
| 1994 | #95 | Gary Downs | OFF | -0.48 | -0.47 | — | -0.43 | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.95 |
| 1982 | #186 | Jeff Wiska | OFF | -0.67 | -0.46 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.96 |
| 1982 | #102 | Gerry Raymond | OFF | -0.67 | -0.48 | — | -0.37 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.97 |
| 1985 | #73 | Brian Johnston | OFF | -0.50 | -0.55 | — | -0.42 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.97 |
| 1987 | #28 | Mark Ingram | OFF | -0.09 | -0.31 | — | -0.48 | — | -0.69 | -0.35 | -1.20 |
| 1981 | #32 | Dave Young | OFF | -0.75 | -0.76 | — | -0.45 | — | -0.09 | -0.03 | -1.26 |
| 1982 | #18 | Butch Woolfolk | OFF | -0.50 | -0.29 | — | -0.59 | — | -0.41 | -0.18 | -1.27 |
| 1985 | #19 | George Adams | OFF | +0.00 | -0.89 | — | -0.62 | — | -0.32 | -0.15 | -1.30 |
| 1989 | #18 | Brian Williams | OFF | +0.90 | -0.39 | — | -0.68 | — | -1.11 | -0.68 | -1.31 |
| 1981 | #145 | Melvin Hoover | OFF | -0.96 | -0.53 | — | -0.53 | — | -0.07 | -0.03 | -1.33 |
| 1984 | #3 | Carl Banks | DEF | +0.34 | +0.23 | — | -0.14 | — | -2.36 | -0.89 | -1.48 |
| 1996 | #66 | Roman Oben | OFF | -0.95 | -0.51 | — | -0.92 | — | -0.57 | -0.39 | -2.13 |
| 1992 | #14 | Derek Brown | OFF | -0.52 | -1.24 | — | -1.09 | — | -0.34 | -0.16 | -2.22 |
| 1997 | #7 | Ike Hilliard | OFF | -0.12 | +0.21 | — | -0.82 | — | -1.89 | -1.36 | -2.41 |
| 1984 | #59 | Jeff Hostetler | OFF | -0.24 | -1.33 | — | -1.18 | — | -1.02 | -0.20 | -2.58 |
| 1991 | #111 | Clarence Jones | OFF | -1.33 | -1.27 | — | -1.18 | — | -0.18 | -0.12 | -2.63 |
| 1988 | #36 | Jumbo Elliott | OFF | -0.38 | -0.03 | — | -0.56 | — | -2.39 | -1.69 | -2.81 |
| 1995 | #17 | Tyrone Wheatley | OFF | -0.86 | -1.42 | — | -1.27 | — | -0.88 | -0.54 | -3.12 |
| 1993 | #177 | Todd Peterson | ST | -2.11 | -1.22 | — | -1.36 | — | -0.25 | -0.27 | -3.29 |
| 1991 | #83 | Ed McCaffrey | OFF | -1.18 | -1.69 | — | -1.39 | — | -0.68 | -0.44 | -3.38 |
| 1997 | #95 | Brad Maynard | ST | -1.25 | -1.87 | — | -1.78 | — | -0.80 | -0.90 | -4.19 |
| 1983 | #63 | Jamie Williams | OFF | -2.34 | -1.82 | — | -1.61 | — | -1.01 | -0.47 | -4.43 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.