Doug Whaley
BUF · Composite skill θ = -0.29 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.87 to +0.28
Evidence: 34 mapped picks across 5 draft classes, 2013–2017 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- -0.35
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2013–2017BUFFired April 2017 day after draft
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | #63 | Dion Dawkins | OFF | +5.88 |
| 2017 | #163 | Matt Milano | DEF | +4.25 |
| 2017 | #27 | Tre'Davious White | DEF | +3.33 |
| 2014 | #73 | Preston Brown | DEF | +1.53 |
| 2014 | #237 | Seantrel Henderson | OFF | +0.82 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | #41 | Robert Woods | OFF | -3.15 |
| 2013 | #78 | Marquise Goodwin | OFF | -3.09 |
| 2013 | #177 | Dustin Hopkins | ST | -3.05 |
| 2014 | #4 | Sammy Watkins | OFF | -2.88 |
| 2017 | #37 | Zay Jones | OFF | -2.66 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 34 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2017 | #63 | Dion Dawkins | OFF | +1.72 | +2.30 | +2.16 | +2.48 | +0.70 | +4.82 | -0.36 | +5.88 |
| 2017 | #163 | Matt Milano | DEF | +1.04 | +1.43 | +0.90 | +1.82 | +1.61 | +0.86 | +1.97 | +4.25 |
| 2017 | #27 | Tre'Davious White | DEF | +0.46 | +1.11 | +0.58 | +1.07 | +1.49 | +1.18 | +1.49 | +3.33 |
| 2014 | #73 | Preston Brown | DEF | +0.47 | +1.00 | +2.34 | +0.73 | -0.06 | -0.10 | -0.06 | +1.53 |
| 2014 | #237 | Seantrel Henderson | OFF | +0.20 | +0.31 | +0.84 | +0.24 | +0.54 | -0.02 | -0.02 | +0.82 |
| 2015 | #194 | Nick O'Leary | OFF | +0.29 | +0.12 | +0.86 | +0.26 | +0.13 | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.59 |
| 2016 | #80 | Adolphus Washington | DEF | -0.06 | +0.12 | -0.47 | +0.04 | +0.88 | -0.05 | -0.02 | +0.30 |
| 2013 | #105 | Duke Williams | DEF | +0.71 | -0.05 | -0.14 | +0.14 | +0.17 | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.30 |
| 2013 | #222 | Chris Gragg | OFF | +0.31 | +0.15 | +0.04 | +0.19 | -0.44 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.02 |
| 2015 | #81 | John Miller | OFF | -0.27 | +0.13 | +0.15 | -0.08 | +0.04 | -0.27 | -0.15 | -0.23 |
| 2014 | #221 | Randell Johnson | DEF | -0.16 | -0.15 | -0.12 | -0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.23 |
| 2015 | #188 | Tony Steward | DEF | -0.44 | -0.25 | +0.54 | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.25 |
| 2013 | #143 | Jonathan Meeks | DEF | +0.34 | -0.23 | -0.39 | -0.04 | -0.40 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| 2016 | #139 | Cardale Jones | OFF | -0.30 | -0.10 | -0.35 | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.35 |
| 2015 | #155 | Karlos Williams | OFF | -0.35 | -0.09 | -0.62 | -0.04 | — | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.42 |
| 2015 | #234 | Dezmin Lewis | OFF | -0.39 | -0.09 | -0.50 | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| 2013 | #16 | EJ Manuel | OFF | -0.08 | -0.29 | +0.01 | -0.31 | -0.36 | -0.08 | -0.01 | -0.50 |
| 2014 | #153 | Cyril Richardson | OFF | -0.29 | -0.29 | -0.62 | -0.19 | — | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.61 |
| 2017 | #195 | Tanner Vallejo | DEF | -0.48 | -0.46 | +0.31 | -0.37 | — | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.62 |
| 2013 | #46 | Kiko Alonso | DEF | -0.99 | -0.59 | -0.12 | -0.50 | +0.73 | -0.22 | -0.14 | -0.63 |
| 2017 | #171 | Nathan Peterman | OFF | -0.48 | -0.30 | -0.13 | -0.31 | — | -0.05 | -0.01 | -0.64 |
| 2016 | #192 | Kolby Listenbee | OFF | -0.53 | -0.17 | -0.78 | -0.16 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.67 |
| 2014 | #44 | Cyrus Kouandjio | OFF | -0.33 | -0.63 | -0.31 | -0.43 | -0.08 | -0.09 | -0.04 | -0.74 |
| 2016 | #218 | Kevon Seymour | DEF | -0.96 | -0.80 | +0.02 | -0.77 | — | -0.12 | -0.10 | -1.46 |
| 2016 | #156 | Jonathan Williams | OFF | -0.98 | -0.73 | -0.61 | -0.71 | — | -0.19 | -0.11 | -1.63 |
| 2014 | #109 | Ross Cockrell | DEF | -1.12 | -0.87 | -0.71 | -0.75 | — | -0.15 | -0.11 | -1.78 |
| 2016 | #19 | Shaq Lawson | DEF | +0.02 | -1.00 | -0.94 | -0.79 | -0.97 | -0.91 | -0.41 | -2.18 |
| 2015 | #50 | Ronald Darby | DEF | -1.26 | -0.74 | -0.42 | -1.00 | -0.51 | -0.80 | -0.56 | -2.24 |
| 2016 | #41 | Reggie Ragland | DEF | -1.47 | -1.14 | -0.95 | -1.03 | — | -0.32 | -0.20 | -2.47 |
| 2017 | #37 | Zay Jones | OFF | -0.97 | -0.73 | -0.48 | -1.02 | -1.34 | -1.00 | -0.50 | -2.66 |
| 2014 | #4 | Sammy Watkins | OFF | -1.11 | -1.00 | -0.54 | -1.17 | +0.02 | -1.72 | -1.14 | -2.88 |
| 2013 | #177 | Dustin Hopkins | ST | -2.02 | -1.16 | -1.09 | -1.23 | — | -0.39 | -0.41 | -3.05 |
| 2013 | #78 | Marquise Goodwin | OFF | -1.08 | -1.26 | -1.60 | -1.28 | -1.04 | -0.78 | -0.46 | -3.09 |
| 2013 | #41 | Robert Woods | OFF | -1.03 | -0.64 | -0.10 | -1.08 | -1.08 | -1.85 | -1.11 | -3.15 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.