Joe Hortiz
LAC · Composite skill θ = +0.05 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -1.76 to +1.85
Evidence: 18 mapped picks across 2 draft classes, 2024–2025 · 19% portfolio maturity · provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict Jury still out
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.14
- maturity discount
- -0.20
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2024–2025LAC
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | #165 | Oronde Gadsden II | OFF | +1.90 |
| 2024 | #137 | Tarheeb Still | DEF | +1.27 |
| 2024 | #34 | Ladd McConkey | OFF | +1.06 |
| 2025 | #214 | R.J. Mickens | ST | +0.72 |
| 2024 | #181 | Kimani Vidal | OFF | +0.65 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | #22 | Omarion Hampton | OFF | -0.82 |
| 2025 | #55 | Tre Harris | OFF | -0.39 |
| 2024 | #105 | Justin Eboigbe | DEF | -0.39 |
| 2024 | #69 | Junior Colson | DEF | -0.35 |
| 2024 | #5 | Joe Alt | OFF | -0.29 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 18 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2025 | #165 | Oronde Gadsden II | OFF | +0.17 | +0.30 | +0.54 | +0.55 | +2.58 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +1.90 |
| 2024 | #137 | Tarheeb Still | DEF | +0.36 | +0.66 | +0.79 | +0.44 | +0.92 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +1.27 |
| 2024 | #34 | Ladd McConkey | OFF | +0.08 | +0.23 | +0.27 | +0.30 | +1.52 | -0.06 | -0.02 | +1.06 |
| 2025 | #214 | R.J. Mickens | ST | +0.24 | +0.40 | +0.56 | +0.32 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.72 |
| 2024 | #181 | Kimani Vidal | OFF | +0.29 | +0.40 | +0.43 | +0.31 | +0.25 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.65 |
| 2024 | #140 | Cam Hart | DEF | +0.39 | +0.31 | +0.55 | +0.27 | +0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.55 |
| 2024 | #225 | Brenden Rice | OFF | +0.09 | +0.30 | +0.59 | +0.17 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.49 |
| 2025 | #256 | Trikweze Bridges | ST | +0.01 | +0.29 | — | +0.23 | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.38 |
| 2025 | #158 | KeAndre Lambert-Smith | OFF | +0.10 | +0.21 | +0.21 | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.22 |
| 2025 | #199 | Branson Taylor | OFF | -0.06 | +0.06 | +0.38 | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.15 |
| 2024 | #253 | Cornelius Johnson | OFF | -0.11 | +0.18 | +0.11 | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.14 |
| 2025 | #125 | Kyle Kennard | DEF | -0.10 | +0.08 | +0.03 | +0.05 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| 2025 | #86 | Jamaree Caldwell | DEF | +0.08 | +0.10 | +0.23 | +0.07 | -0.29 | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| 2024 | #5 | Joe Alt | OFF | -0.40 | -0.62 | -0.44 | -0.74 | +0.20 | +0.97 | -0.06 | -0.29 |
| 2024 | #69 | Junior Colson | DEF | -0.19 | -0.16 | -0.14 | -0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| 2024 | #105 | Justin Eboigbe | DEF | +0.12 | -0.07 | +0.04 | +0.01 | -0.83 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 2025 | #55 | Tre Harris | OFF | -0.04 | +0.07 | -0.01 | -0.12 | -0.64 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| 2025 | #22 | Omarion Hampton | OFF | -0.45 | -0.30 | -0.50 | -0.36 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.82 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.