Tim Ruskell
SEA · Composite skill θ = +0.38 · maturity-adjusted 95% credible interval -0.27 to +1.03
Evidence: 37 mapped picks across 5 draft classes, 2005–2009 · 100% portfolio maturity · non-provisional estimate.
THE ADJUSTMENT, MADE VISIBLE
The record vs. the verdict
The open dot is his record alone: a fixed projection of raw per-pick outcomes (era-normalized games and AV, draft capital, honors) onto the composite scale. The filled dot is the published verdict. The bar between them is the adjustment.
- partial pooling + era/capital adjustment
- +0.39
- maturity discount
- 0.00
His record alone is a support view of the unadjusted record, not a second rating. The published verdict keeps its interval above.
ONE PERSON, COMPLETE CONTEXT
Team and tenure chronology
The Big Board ranks one person once across their full portfolio. The checked-in release keeps 190 people distinct from its 209 GM-team careers; these dated team assignments show the context behind this profile.
- 2005–2009SEA
Top 5 hits
Support residuals: picks where the player most over-performed the league baseline at their draft slot. They explain the profile; they are not a second GM rating.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | #45 | Lofa Tatupu | DEF | +5.59 |
| 2005 | #98 | LeRoy Hill | DEF | +2.36 |
| 2008 | #121 | Red Bryant | DEF | +2.35 |
| 2009 | #49 | Max Unger | OFF | +1.69 |
| 2007 | #85 | Brandon Mebane | DEF | +1.11 |
Top 5 misses
Support residuals: picks where the player most under-performed the slot baseline. Related outcomes are collapsed inside their bucket before the final contribution.
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | Support contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | #63 | Darryl Tapp | DEF | -1.90 |
| 2009 | #4 | Aaron Curry | DEF | -1.36 |
| 2007 | #55 | Josh Wilson | DEF | -1.23 |
| 2005 | #26 | Chris Spencer | OFF | -0.74 |
| 2007 | #161 | Will Herring | DEF | -0.58 |
earned playing time
value per opportunity
league honors
All 37 picks · bucketed residuals
Each cell is a support z-score: how far the player's outcome deviated from the league baseline at their draft slot. The total gives one vote to each bucket, so playing-time proxies do not drown out AV, AV/snap quality, or honors. It is not the maturity-adjusted headline composite.
| Draft pick | Opportunity | Quality | Recognition | Support | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Pick | Player | Pos | GP | GS | Snaps | AV | AV/snap | PB | AP1 | Total |
| 2005 | #45 | Lofa Tatupu | DEF | +0.98 | +1.58 | — | +1.66 | — | +3.21 | +2.10 | +5.59 |
| 2005 | #98 | LeRoy Hill | DEF | +1.09 | +1.62 | — | +1.10 | — | -0.10 | -0.07 | +2.36 |
| 2008 | #121 | Red Bryant | DEF | +0.41 | +0.81 | +0.36 | +0.60 | +3.15 | -0.07 | -0.03 | +2.35 |
| 2009 | #49 | Max Unger | OFF | -0.24 | +0.23 | -0.65 | +0.31 | +1.17 | +0.53 | +1.80 | +1.69 |
| 2007 | #85 | Brandon Mebane | DEF | +0.80 | +1.64 | -0.87 | +0.83 | +1.30 | -0.59 | -0.35 | +1.11 |
| 2006 | #239 | Ryan Plackemeier | ST | +0.51 | +0.37 | — | +0.55 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.98 |
| 2006 | #31 | Kelly Jennings | DEF | +0.83 | +0.40 | — | +0.11 | — | -0.09 | -0.06 | +0.66 |
| 2005 | #105 | Ray Willis | OFF | +0.51 | +0.32 | — | +0.18 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.58 |
| 2009 | #248 | Cameron Morrah | OFF | +0.30 | +0.17 | — | +0.32 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.54 |
| 2008 | #235 | Brandon Coutu | ST | -0.33 | +0.34 | — | +0.34 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.34 |
| 2006 | #249 | Ben Obomanu | OFF | +0.74 | -0.11 | — | -0.04 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | +0.24 |
| 2009 | #247 | Nick Reed | DEF | +0.09 | +0.04 | — | +0.15 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.21 |
| 2007 | #197 | Courtney Taylor | OFF | +0.08 | +0.10 | — | +0.03 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.11 |
| 2009 | #178 | Mike Teel | OFF | -0.10 | +0.11 | — | +0.09 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 |
| 2008 | #163 | Owen Schmitt | OFF | +0.26 | +0.02 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | +0.04 |
| 2005 | #196 | Tony Jackson | OFF | -0.39 | -0.05 | — | +0.22 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| 2009 | #91 | Deon Butler | OFF | +0.22 | -0.07 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.02 |
| 2007 | #210 | Jordan Kent | OFF | -0.11 | +0.03 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| 2005 | #235 | Cornelius Wortham | DEF | -0.17 | -0.03 | — | +0.02 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.09 |
| 2007 | #120 | Baraka Atkins | DEF | -0.01 | -0.17 | — | +0.00 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| 2009 | #245 | Courtney Greene | DEF | -0.32 | +0.01 | — | +0.06 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| 2008 | #28 | Lawrence Jackson | DEF | -0.12 | -0.01 | — | -0.09 | — | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.20 |
| 2005 | #254 | Doug Nienhuis | OFF | -0.26 | -0.11 | — | -0.03 | — | -0.01 | +0.00 | -0.23 |
| 2006 | #163 | David Kirtman | OFF | -0.29 | -0.01 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.23 |
| 2005 | #85 | David Greene | OFF | -0.28 | -0.09 | — | -0.07 | — | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.27 |
| 2008 | #38 | John Carlson | OFF | -0.16 | +0.06 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.17 | -0.08 | -0.28 |
| 2007 | #124 | Mansfield Wrotto | OFF | -0.19 | -0.22 | — | -0.10 | — | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.32 |
| 2007 | #232 | Steve Vallos | OFF | +0.06 | -0.29 | — | -0.19 | — | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.33 |
| 2008 | #233 | Justin Forsett | OFF | +0.27 | -0.46 | — | -0.17 | — | -0.08 | -0.06 | -0.34 |
| 2008 | #189 | Tyler Schmitt | DEF | -0.48 | -0.13 | — | -0.11 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| 2005 | #159 | Jeb Huckeba | DEF | -0.50 | -0.15 | — | -0.12 | — | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.46 |
| 2006 | #128 | Rob Sims | OFF | -0.24 | -0.12 | — | -0.24 | — | -0.12 | -0.08 | -0.52 |
| 2007 | #161 | Will Herring | DEF | +0.18 | -0.51 | — | -0.36 | — | -0.06 | -0.05 | -0.58 |
| 2005 | #26 | Chris Spencer | OFF | +0.00 | +0.15 | — | -0.26 | — | -0.67 | -0.43 | -0.74 |
| 2007 | #55 | Josh Wilson | DEF | -0.61 | -0.52 | — | -0.45 | — | -0.25 | -0.19 | -1.23 |
| 2009 | #4 | Aaron Curry | DEF | -0.34 | -0.47 | — | -0.82 | — | -0.15 | -0.12 | -1.36 |
| 2006 | #63 | Darryl Tapp | DEF | -0.65 | -0.82 | — | -0.74 | — | -0.55 | -0.30 | -1.90 |
How to read this
- Support residual is the per-pick sum of three bucket scores: opportunity (GP, starts, snaps), quality (AV, AV/snap when available), and recognition (Pro Bowl, AP1). Positive = over-baseline.
- Era-gated outcomes: snaps and AV/snap require snap_counts data (2013+). Cells show "—" when the outcome wasn't observable for that pick.
- The headline model is v30 deep NUTS MCMC; the score and interval above are the published maturity-adjusted composite. This per-pick table is support evidence, not another interval or GM rating.
- "Misses" means "underperformed slot expectation," not that the player lacked a substantial NFL career. Carson Palmer (2003 #1) appears because the model expects elite production from #1-overall QBs.